**Northeast monsoon influences and persistent cloud cover with showers are anchoring trader expectations for a Hong Kong minimum temperature of 24–25°C on October 3.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a range of roughly 25–31°C under easterly winds of force 3–4, with early showers and thunderstorms limiting overnight radiative cooling and keeping surface temperatures from dropping further. Ensemble model outputs and recent automated station trends show overnight lows stabilizing near 25–26°C, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 25°C (58.5%) and 24°C (33.5%). A drier, cooler reinforcement of the monsoon is not expected until Sunday night or early next week, so no sharp temperature drop is anticipated for tomorrow. The primary uncertainty remains the exact timing and intensity of showers, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C in either direction depending on clearing skies.