Recent forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models indicate Lucknow's minimum temperature on September 14 will likely hover near 25–26°C under lingering monsoon moisture and widespread cloud cover, which suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling. Historical September lows average 24–26°C, with dips below 22°C rare outside strong post-monsoon clear spells and highs rarely pushing the overnight floor above 28°C. Differentiating the closely matched market-implied odds for 21°C-or-below versus 31°C-or-higher hinges on the timing and intensity of any final monsoon showers versus breaks that allow greater heat loss; updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds amid typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C.