Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS guidance, indicate Moscow's overnight low on October 9 will likely reach 7–8°C, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Mild southerly flow and persistent cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling, while above-average temperatures earlier in the month (departures of +2–3°C) have kept the air mass warmer than the 1991–2020 climatological low of 3.9°C. Light rain expected during the day further moderates the diurnal range without allowing sharp nocturnal drops. Official Russian meteorological outlooks and ensemble consensus show limited spread around this range, with only modest downside risk to 5–6°C if clearing occurs earlier than anticipated. No strong cold advection is projected before resolution.