Forecast models from the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles show a tight consensus around a 4°C minimum in Munich today, driven by clear overnight skies under a high-pressure ridge promoting moderate radiative cooling without strong cold-air advection. Recent surface observations and sounding data indicate mild Atlantic flow keeping temperatures above freezing, consistent with early-autumn climatology where October lows average 5–7°C. The market’s strong implied probability for exactly 4°C reflects this model agreement and the day’s advanced timing, with resolution hinging on official DWD station readings. Only a sharper-than-expected northerly surge or measurement revision could shift the outcome lower.