Forecast models from sources including GFS and European meteorological agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 8°C in Warsaw on October 13 under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly to westerly winds of 2–4 m/s, and high pressure near 1025 hPa that limits radiational cooling. This consensus, supported by hourly guidance showing overnight lows stabilizing near 6–8°C before dawn, underpins the 95% market-implied probability for 8°C. Historical October averages for the city hover around 7–9°C minima, providing climatological alignment. A shift toward clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow readings near 5–6°C, though current observations and short-range ensembles show low likelihood of such deviation before midnight resolution.