Peggy Flanagan holds a strong trader consensus edge in the Minnesota Senate race for the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, reflecting the state’s consistent Democratic lean in federal contests and her position as lieutenant governor. Recent polls have tightened sharply, with multiple surveys from late September showing the matchup essentially even or within the margin of error after Flanagan led by five points post-primary. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya has narrowed the gap by emphasizing fraud allegations tied to state agencies under Gov. Tim Walz and Flanagan, alongside Walz’s declining favorability. Forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely Democratic, and markets price in structural advantages for the Democratic nominee despite the late-campaign volatility and upcoming debates.