The high market-implied probability of no new pandemic in 2026 stems primarily from the ongoing Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which WHO designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May but explicitly assessed as low global risk with no pandemic potential. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows regional containment efforts, including vaccination campaigns and cross-border measures, have limited spread despite thousands of cases, consistent with historical patterns for this strain lacking efficient sustained human-to-human transmission. Broader monitoring of other threats like measles clusters, cholera, Nipah, and sporadic avian influenza detections reveals no novel pathogen meeting pandemic criteria such as rapid global dissemination. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected zoonotic spillover gaining transmissibility or model revisions in coming months as surveillance data accumulates.