Strong containment of active outbreaks, including the Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with thousands of cases but limited cross-border spread, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against a new pandemic in 2026. Official surveillance from WHO and ECDC shows no novel pathogen achieving sustained, efficient human-to-human transmission at scale, while mpox and hantavirus clusters remain regionally contained with low global risk. Ongoing genomic monitoring and rapid response protocols have prevented escalation despite zoonotic spillovers and climate-linked vector pressures. A realistic shift could occur if a high-transmissibility influenza reassortant or mutated strain emerges with pandemic potential before December, though current epidemiological thresholds and model consensus indicate this remains improbable.