Trader consensus strongly favors no Ebola pandemic in 2026, with the market-implied probability of “No” at 92.5 percent reflecting persistently low global case counts and effective containment by health authorities. As of mid-2026, official surveillance from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control shows only sporadic, localized outbreaks in parts of Central Africa, consistent with historical patterns where Ebola virus transmission remains limited by rapid contact tracing, isolation protocols, and ring vaccination campaigns. These measures have kept recent clusters under control without evidence of sustained human-to-human spread or new variants capable of pandemic-scale transmissibility. While a novel zoonotic spillover event or undetected mutation could theoretically alter trajectories, current epidemiological indicators and surveillance data provide little basis for such escalation before year-end.