Recent local election defeats for Labour, coupled with over 70 MPs publicly urging resignation and multiple cabinet exits, have intensified internal party pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the earliest departure before 2027. This turmoil follows weeks of leadership maneuvering and threats of a formal contest, raising the prospect of a swift transition within months. Colombia's Gustavo Petro trails as the second-most probable outcome due to his constitutional term limit, with the May 31 presidential vote set to end his tenure by early August regardless of results. Lower-probability candidates such as Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu reflect ongoing but less immediate geopolitical strains, while the slim share for "none before 2027" underscores expectations of at least one change amid these timelines.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाStarmer - UK PM 49%
Petro - Colombia President 20%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.3%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%
$367,449 वॉल्यूम
$367,449 वॉल्यूम
Starmer - UK PM
49%
Petro - Colombia President
20%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
8%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
None before 2027
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 49%
Petro - Colombia President 20%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.3%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%
$367,449 वॉल्यूम
$367,449 वॉल्यूम
Starmer - UK PM
49%
Petro - Colombia President
20%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
8%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
None before 2027
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent local election defeats for Labour, coupled with over 70 MPs publicly urging resignation and multiple cabinet exits, have intensified internal party pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the earliest departure before 2027. This turmoil follows weeks of leadership maneuvering and threats of a formal contest, raising the prospect of a swift transition within months. Colombia's Gustavo Petro trails as the second-most probable outcome due to his constitutional term limit, with the May 31 presidential vote set to end his tenure by early August regardless of results. Lower-probability candidates such as Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu reflect ongoing but less immediate geopolitical strains, while the slim share for "none before 2027" underscores expectations of at least one change amid these timelines.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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