Traders currently assign the highest probability to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer departing office before 2027, driven by persistently low approval ratings near historic lows for a sitting leader and recent Labour setbacks in by-elections and parliamentary cohesion. Colombia President Gustavo Petro ranks second because his constitutionally mandated term ends in August 2026 following the May 31 presidential election, with his own ineligibility for re-election creating a firm exit timeline regardless of successor. Lower-priced outcomes for figures such as Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel or Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy reflect fewer immediate institutional triggers or scheduled transitions within the 2027 window, though sudden diplomatic or domestic shifts could alter positioning. These implied probabilities capture collective assessments of term limits, electoral calendars, and approval trends across multiple jurisdictions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाStarmer - UK PM 44%
Petro - Colombia President 32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.7%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.0%
$361,299 वॉल्यूम
$361,299 वॉल्यूम
Starmer - UK PM
44%
Petro - Colombia President
32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 44%
Petro - Colombia President 32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.7%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.0%
$361,299 वॉल्यूम
$361,299 वॉल्यूम
Starmer - UK PM
44%
Petro - Colombia President
32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders currently assign the highest probability to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer departing office before 2027, driven by persistently low approval ratings near historic lows for a sitting leader and recent Labour setbacks in by-elections and parliamentary cohesion. Colombia President Gustavo Petro ranks second because his constitutionally mandated term ends in August 2026 following the May 31 presidential election, with his own ineligibility for re-election creating a firm exit timeline regardless of successor. Lower-priced outcomes for figures such as Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel or Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy reflect fewer immediate institutional triggers or scheduled transitions within the 2027 window, though sudden diplomatic or domestic shifts could alter positioning. These implied probabilities capture collective assessments of term limits, electoral calendars, and approval trends across multiple jurisdictions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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