Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven primarily by recent reports of internal tensions over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline. OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, missed user targets, and $600 billion in compute commitments as risks delaying public listing into 2027, per disclosures from early May 2026. The company's March funding round set a post-money valuation at $852 billion—requiring substantial growth amid enterprise pivots and Microsoft revenue-sharing caps—yet no S-1 filing has emerged. Regulatory scrutiny from attorneys general adds hurdles, while CEO Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets reinforces skepticism, with traders eyeing potential shifts from upcoming earnings or filings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$269,115 वॉल्यूम
$269,115 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
$269,115 वॉल्यूम
$269,115 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven primarily by recent reports of internal tensions over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline. OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, missed user targets, and $600 billion in compute commitments as risks delaying public listing into 2027, per disclosures from early May 2026. The company's March funding round set a post-money valuation at $852 billion—requiring substantial growth amid enterprise pivots and Microsoft revenue-sharing caps—yet no S-1 filing has emerged. Regulatory scrutiny from attorneys general adds hurdles, while CEO Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets reinforces skepticism, with traders eyeing potential shifts from upcoming earnings or filings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$269,115समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven primarily by recent reports of internal tensions over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline. OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, missed user targets, and $600 billion in compute commitments as risks delaying public listing into 2027, per disclosures from early May 2026. The company's March funding round set a post-money valuation at $852 billion—requiring substantial growth amid enterprise pivots and Microsoft revenue-sharing caps—yet no S-1 filing has emerged. Regulatory scrutiny from attorneys general adds hurdles, while CEO Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets reinforces skepticism, with traders eyeing potential shifts from upcoming earnings or filings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$269,115समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, driven primarily by recent reports of internal tensions over an aggressive Q4 2026 timeline. OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, missed user targets, and $600 billion in compute commitments as risks delaying public listing into 2027, per disclosures from early May 2026. The company's March funding round set a post-money valuation at $852 billion—requiring substantial growth amid enterprise pivots and Microsoft revenue-sharing caps—yet no S-1 filing has emerged. Regulatory scrutiny from attorneys general adds hurdles, while CEO Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets reinforces skepticism, with traders eyeing potential shifts from upcoming earnings or filings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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