SpaceX's commanding 87.5% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO stems from its established private valuation exceeding $200 billion, driven by Starship progress, Starlink subscriber growth, and consistent revenue from NASA and commercial launches. This positions the company far ahead of newer entrants like xAI, whose rising but still smaller valuation and early-stage Grok model releases create only secondary trader interest at 25.5%. Anthropic and OpenAI trail further at 7.5% and 2.9% due to their high but comparatively modest valuations around $40–80 billion and ongoing focus on AI model scaling rather than immediate public listings. Recent developments, including SpaceX's repeated successful orbital tests and regulatory approvals for expanded launches, have reinforced trader consensus on its timeline readiness, while uncertainty around AI firms' path to profitability keeps their odds subdued.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयास्पेसएक्स 88%
एंथ्रॉपिक 7.5%
OpenAI 2.9%
क्रैकन <1%
$1,861,264 वॉल्यूम
$1,861,264 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
स्पेसएक्स
88%
एंथ्रॉपिक
8%
OpenAI
3%
क्रैकन
1%
डिस्कॉर्ड
<1%
बाइटडांस
<1%
स्ट्राइप
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
वेमो
<1%
Revolut
<1%
पर्प्लेक्सिटी एआई
<1%
डेटाब्रिक्स
<1%
स्पेसएक्स 88%
एंथ्रॉपिक 7.5%
OpenAI 2.9%
क्रैकन <1%
$1,861,264 वॉल्यूम
$1,861,264 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
स्पेसएक्स
$224,837 वॉल्यूम
88%
एंथ्रॉपिक
$358,959 वॉल्यूम
8%
OpenAI
$331,271 वॉल्यूम
3%
क्रैकन
$385,178 वॉल्यूम
1%
डिस्कॉर्ड
$80,991 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइटडांस
$98,750 वॉल्यूम
<1%
स्ट्राइप
$50,778 वॉल्यूम
<1%
SHEIN
$69,569 वॉल्यूम
<1%
वेमो
$57,372 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Revolut
$51,093 वॉल्यूम
<1%
पर्प्लेक्सिटी एआई
$67,637 वॉल्यूम
<1%
डेटाब्रिक्स
$84,831 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's commanding 87.5% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO stems from its established private valuation exceeding $200 billion, driven by Starship progress, Starlink subscriber growth, and consistent revenue from NASA and commercial launches. This positions the company far ahead of newer entrants like xAI, whose rising but still smaller valuation and early-stage Grok model releases create only secondary trader interest at 25.5%. Anthropic and OpenAI trail further at 7.5% and 2.9% due to their high but comparatively modest valuations around $40–80 billion and ongoing focus on AI model scaling rather than immediate public listings. Recent developments, including SpaceX's repeated successful orbital tests and regulatory approvals for expanded launches, have reinforced trader consensus on its timeline readiness, while uncertainty around AI firms' path to profitability keeps their odds subdued.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,861,264समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's commanding 87.5% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO stems from its established private valuation exceeding $200 billion, driven by Starship progress, Starlink subscriber growth, and consistent revenue from NASA and commercial launches. This positions the company far ahead of newer entrants like xAI, whose rising but still smaller valuation and early-stage Grok model releases create only secondary trader interest at 25.5%. Anthropic and OpenAI trail further at 7.5% and 2.9% due to their high but comparatively modest valuations around $40–80 billion and ongoing focus on AI model scaling rather than immediate public listings. Recent developments, including SpaceX's repeated successful orbital tests and regulatory approvals for expanded launches, have reinforced trader consensus on its timeline readiness, while uncertainty around AI firms' path to profitability keeps their odds subdued.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
वॉल्यूम
$1,861,264समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's commanding 87.5% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO stems from its established private valuation exceeding $200 billion, driven by Starship progress, Starlink subscriber growth, and consistent revenue from NASA and commercial launches. This positions the company far ahead of newer entrants like xAI, whose rising but still smaller valuation and early-stage Grok model releases create only secondary trader interest at 25.5%. Anthropic and OpenAI trail further at 7.5% and 2.9% due to their high but comparatively modest valuations around $40–80 billion and ongoing focus on AI model scaling rather than immediate public listings. Recent developments, including SpaceX's repeated successful orbital tests and regulatory approvals for expanded launches, have reinforced trader consensus on its timeline readiness, while uncertainty around AI firms' path to profitability keeps their odds subdued.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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