SpaceX's two successful V3 Starship test flights in May and July 2026, which demonstrated improved Raptor engines, hot staging, and payload deployment, form the main catalyst for trader consensus around 5-6 total launches reaching space this year. With only those flights completed by mid-August and Flight 14 targeted for late August or September as the first orbital attempt with a potential tower catch, the 59.5% implied probability on 5-6 reflects measured optimism about ramping cadence amid ongoing reusability milestones. The 33.5% on under 5 accounts for typical testing delays, while higher brackets remain low-probability given historical flight rates and regulatory factors.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में स्पेसएक्स स्टारशिप के कितने लॉन्च अंतरिक्ष तक पहुँचते हैं?
2026 में स्पेसएक्स स्टारशिप के कितने लॉन्च अंतरिक्ष तक पहुँचते हैं?
5-6 60%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.0%
$492,887 वॉल्यूम
$492,887 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
<5
34%
5-6
60%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 60%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.0%
$492,887 वॉल्यूम
$492,887 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
<5
$99,128 वॉल्यूम
34%
5-6
$113,791 वॉल्यूम
60%
7-8
$158,458 वॉल्यूम
8%
9-10
$61,464 वॉल्यूम
3%
11-12
$8,371 वॉल्यूम
3%
13-14
$9,146 वॉल्यूम
<1%
15-16
$30,046 वॉल्यूम
<1%
>16
$12,483 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's two successful V3 Starship test flights in May and July 2026, which demonstrated improved Raptor engines, hot staging, and payload deployment, form the main catalyst for trader consensus around 5-6 total launches reaching space this year. With only those flights completed by mid-August and Flight 14 targeted for late August or September as the first orbital attempt with a potential tower catch, the 59.5% implied probability on 5-6 reflects measured optimism about ramping cadence amid ongoing reusability milestones. The 33.5% on under 5 accounts for typical testing delays, while higher brackets remain low-probability given historical flight rates and regulatory factors.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$492,887समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's two successful V3 Starship test flights in May and July 2026, which demonstrated improved Raptor engines, hot staging, and payload deployment, form the main catalyst for trader consensus around 5-6 total launches reaching space this year. With only those flights completed by mid-August and Flight 14 targeted for late August or September as the first orbital attempt with a potential tower catch, the 59.5% implied probability on 5-6 reflects measured optimism about ramping cadence amid ongoing reusability milestones. The 33.5% on under 5 accounts for typical testing delays, while higher brackets remain low-probability given historical flight rates and regulatory factors.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$492,887समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's two successful V3 Starship test flights in May and July 2026, which demonstrated improved Raptor engines, hot staging, and payload deployment, form the main catalyst for trader consensus around 5-6 total launches reaching space this year. With only those flights completed by mid-August and Flight 14 targeted for late August or September as the first orbital attempt with a potential tower catch, the 59.5% implied probability on 5-6 reflects measured optimism about ramping cadence amid ongoing reusability milestones. The 33.5% on under 5 accounts for typical testing delays, while higher brackets remain low-probability given historical flight rates and regulatory factors.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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