NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, which underpins the 96.9 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Objects roughly 25–40 meters across, comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, release this energy level yet strike Earth only once every several decades on average. Extensive sky surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey have cataloged nearly all large candidates well in advance, with zero qualifying detections through mid-May 2026 and routine orbital modeling confirming negligible cumulative risk. Ongoing infrared and optical monitoring continues to close remaining gaps for smaller, fast-moving bodies. The sole realistic pathway to a market shift would require discovery of a previously undetected bolide under 30 meters, an event whose likelihood shrinks further with each new data release.