Extensive NASA and international planetary defense surveys, including ongoing near-Earth object tracking via telescopes and radar, have identified no asteroids or comets large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses with Earth through 2026. Continuous orbital monitoring and refined trajectory models reinforce this assessment, driving the market-implied 98.7% probability of no strike. While an undetected small object or unexpected long-period comet could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and historical patterns make such scenarios highly improbable absent major new observations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
1% संभावना
$116,329 वॉल्यूम
$116,329 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
1% संभावना
$116,329 वॉल्यूम
$116,329 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international planetary defense surveys, including ongoing near-Earth object tracking via telescopes and radar, have identified no asteroids or comets large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses with Earth through 2026. Continuous orbital monitoring and refined trajectory models reinforce this assessment, driving the market-implied 98.7% probability of no strike. While an undetected small object or unexpected long-period comet could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and historical patterns make such scenarios highly improbable absent major new observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$116,329समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international planetary defense surveys, including ongoing near-Earth object tracking via telescopes and radar, have identified no asteroids or comets large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses with Earth through 2026. Continuous orbital monitoring and refined trajectory models reinforce this assessment, driving the market-implied 98.7% probability of no strike. While an undetected small object or unexpected long-period comet could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and historical patterns make such scenarios highly improbable absent major new observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$116,329समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and international planetary defense surveys, including ongoing near-Earth object tracking via telescopes and radar, have identified no asteroids or comets large enough to deliver 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses with Earth through 2026. Continuous orbital monitoring and refined trajectory models reinforce this assessment, driving the market-implied 98.7% probability of no strike. While an undetected small object or unexpected long-period comet could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and historical patterns make such scenarios highly improbable absent major new observations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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