The low historical frequency of 100-kiloton-scale impacts—roughly one every several thousand years based on near-Earth object surveys—underpins the 91.8% market-implied probability of no such event in 2026. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global asteroid monitoring programs have catalogued the vast majority of objects large enough to produce this energy release, with no detected threats on collision courses this year. Ongoing sky surveys continue to refine orbital data and reduce uncertainty for remaining undiscovered bodies, though smaller undetected meteoroids could still deliver localized effects. Any shift would require a confirmed new detection with a trajectory intersecting Earth within the remaining months, an outcome current observational coverage makes statistically unlikely.