NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track all known near-Earth asteroids, with multiple 2026 flybys—including 2026 JH2, PK, and PC—passing safely at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles and none projected to deliver 5-kiloton impact energy. Small, undiscovered objects in the 5–15 meter range occasionally produce airbursts near this yield, yet current orbital catalogs and historical impact statistics indicate low odds of such an event occurring specifically in 2026. Ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified new threats meeting the energy threshold, supporting trader consensus that favors the “No” outcome while acknowledging residual uncertainty from undetected bodies.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
30% संभावना
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
30% संभावना
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track all known near-Earth asteroids, with multiple 2026 flybys—including 2026 JH2, PK, and PC—passing safely at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles and none projected to deliver 5-kiloton impact energy. Small, undiscovered objects in the 5–15 meter range occasionally produce airbursts near this yield, yet current orbital catalogs and historical impact statistics indicate low odds of such an event occurring specifically in 2026. Ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified new threats meeting the energy threshold, supporting trader consensus that favors the “No” outcome while acknowledging residual uncertainty from undetected bodies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$312,008समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track all known near-Earth asteroids, with multiple 2026 flybys—including 2026 JH2, PK, and PC—passing safely at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles and none projected to deliver 5-kiloton impact energy. Small, undiscovered objects in the 5–15 meter range occasionally produce airbursts near this yield, yet current orbital catalogs and historical impact statistics indicate low odds of such an event occurring specifically in 2026. Ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified new threats meeting the energy threshold, supporting trader consensus that favors the “No” outcome while acknowledging residual uncertainty from undetected bodies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$312,008समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to track all known near-Earth asteroids, with multiple 2026 flybys—including 2026 JH2, PK, and PC—passing safely at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles and none projected to deliver 5-kiloton impact energy. Small, undiscovered objects in the 5–15 meter range occasionally produce airbursts near this yield, yet current orbital catalogs and historical impact statistics indicate low odds of such an event occurring specifically in 2026. Ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified new threats meeting the energy threshold, supporting trader consensus that favors the “No” outcome while acknowledging residual uncertainty from undetected bodies.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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