Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
12% संभावना
$139,387 वॉल्यूम
$139,387 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
12% संभावना
$139,387 वॉल्यूम
$139,387 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$139,387समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$139,387समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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