SpaceX has advanced Starship reusability through repeated Super Heavy booster catches and a successful first reuse in 2025, alongside ongoing integrated flight tests that demonstrate engine relights and controlled returns. These milestones, combined with Elon Musk’s statements targeting full rapid reusability of both stages by late 2026 via the V3 vehicle, underpin the 61% market-implied probability for achievement before 2028. The upper stage continues to face heat shield and reentry challenges, yet the company’s iterative development pace and production of dozens of vehicles suggest traders view rapid iteration as likely to close remaining gaps within the two-year window. Key near-term catalysts include additional flight tests and propellant transfer demonstrations that could accelerate operational reuse.