Recent flight test progress and Elon Musk’s public timelines underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability that Starship achieves full reusability before 2028. Flight 13 in July delivered the first intact upper-stage recovery, yielding critical heat-shield data, while Flight 14—targeted for September 22—aims for the first orbital insertion, six revolutions, and Starlink V3 deployment. Hardware upgrades to the heat shield, engine relight reliability, and tile retention, combined with planned tower catches for both stages, position rapid reflight demonstrations for late 2026 or 2027. Traders weigh these iterative gains and Musk’s statements projecting upper-stage reuse within a year against remaining challenges in repeated orbital returns and regulatory clearances.