Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by end of November, as these variants lead or tie multiple independent leaderboards on coding, agentic workflows, and composite intelligence indices. Traders cite sustained edges on SWE-bench variants, Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (8.5%), released days later and competitive but trailing on several agentic and reasoning metrics, and Google’s Gemini 3.x family (9.5%), which excels in ecosystem integration and value tiers but lags frontier benchmarks. Recent disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D underscore accelerating self-improvement momentum. Key swing factors through November include any further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or enterprise adoption shifts before the resolution window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 80%
गूगल 10%
ओपनएआई 9%
मूनशॉट 1.8%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
Anthropic
80%
गूगल
10%
ओपनएआई
9%
मूनशॉट
2%
Baidu
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Amazon
2%
Nvidia
2%
StepFun
2%
मिस्ट्रल
2%
बाइटडांस
2%
मेटा
1%
अलीबाबा
1%
Thinky
1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
टेनसेंट
1%
Anthropic 80%
गूगल 10%
ओपनएआई 9%
मूनशॉट 1.8%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
Anthropic
$1,657 वॉल्यूम
80%
गूगल
$277 वॉल्यूम
10%
ओपनएआई
$334 वॉल्यूम
9%
मूनशॉट
$123 वॉल्यूम
2%
Baidu
$157 वॉल्यूम
2%
SpaceXAI
$125 वॉल्यूम
2%
Amazon
$158 वॉल्यूम
2%
Nvidia
$158 वॉल्यूम
2%
StepFun
$186 वॉल्यूम
2%
मिस्ट्रल
$111 वॉल्यूम
2%
बाइटडांस
$155 वॉल्यूम
2%
मेटा
$123 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$84 वॉल्यूम
1%
Thinky
$156 वॉल्यूम
1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$120 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$74 वॉल्यूम
1%
Z.ai
$74 वॉल्यूम
1%
Xiaomi
$123 वॉल्यूम
1%
MiniMax
$74 वॉल्यूम
1%
Meituan
$74 वॉल्यूम
1%
टेनसेंट
$74 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by end of November, as these variants lead or tie multiple independent leaderboards on coding, agentic workflows, and composite intelligence indices. Traders cite sustained edges on SWE-bench variants, Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (8.5%), released days later and competitive but trailing on several agentic and reasoning metrics, and Google’s Gemini 3.x family (9.5%), which excels in ecosystem integration and value tiers but lags frontier benchmarks. Recent disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D underscore accelerating self-improvement momentum. Key swing factors through November include any further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or enterprise adoption shifts before the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$4,419समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by end of November, as these variants lead or tie multiple independent leaderboards on coding, agentic workflows, and composite intelligence indices. Traders cite sustained edges on SWE-bench variants, Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (8.5%), released days later and competitive but trailing on several agentic and reasoning metrics, and Google’s Gemini 3.x family (9.5%), which excels in ecosystem integration and value tiers but lags frontier benchmarks. Recent disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D underscore accelerating self-improvement momentum. Key swing factors through November include any further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or enterprise adoption shifts before the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$4,419समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven the 79.5% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by end of November, as these variants lead or tie multiple independent leaderboards on coding, agentic workflows, and composite intelligence indices. Traders cite sustained edges on SWE-bench variants, Terminal-Bench, and knowledge-work evaluations over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (8.5%), released days later and competitive but trailing on several agentic and reasoning metrics, and Google’s Gemini 3.x family (9.5%), which excels in ecosystem integration and value tiers but lags frontier benchmarks. Recent disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D underscore accelerating self-improvement momentum. Key swing factors through November include any further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or enterprise adoption shifts before the resolution window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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