The strong trader consensus favoring 1,250 or more tornadoes in 2026 stems primarily from historical baselines and ongoing La Niña conditions, which typically boost springtime severe weather across the central and southern Plains. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center data show an average of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed tornadoes annually in recent decades, with elevated counts in multiple La Niña years due to stronger jet-stream dynamics and increased moisture transport. Early 2026 observations align with this pattern, including above-normal severe-weather days through mid-May. Model guidance from the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate neutral-to-La Niña sea-surface temperatures through summer, supporting the market-implied probability that total annual reports will exceed the higher end of the historical range.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
1250+ 80%
1200–1249 19.9%
1150–1199 5.0%
<950 4.0%
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
4%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
20%
1250+
80%
1250+ 80%
1200–1249 19.9%
1150–1199 5.0%
<950 4.0%
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
$22,427 वॉल्यूम
4%
950–999
$2,966 वॉल्यूम
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 वॉल्यूम
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 वॉल्यूम
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 वॉल्यूम
3%
1150–1199
$2,452 वॉल्यूम
5%
1200–1249
$15,173 वॉल्यूम
20%
1250+
$16,666 वॉल्यूम
80%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.The strong trader consensus favoring 1,250 or more tornadoes in 2026 stems primarily from historical baselines and ongoing La Niña conditions, which typically boost springtime severe weather across the central and southern Plains. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center data show an average of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed tornadoes annually in recent decades, with elevated counts in multiple La Niña years due to stronger jet-stream dynamics and increased moisture transport. Early 2026 observations align with this pattern, including above-normal severe-weather days through mid-May. Model guidance from the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate neutral-to-La Niña sea-surface temperatures through summer, supporting the market-implied probability that total annual reports will exceed the higher end of the historical range.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$71,989समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.The strong trader consensus favoring 1,250 or more tornadoes in 2026 stems primarily from historical baselines and ongoing La Niña conditions, which typically boost springtime severe weather across the central and southern Plains. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center data show an average of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed tornadoes annually in recent decades, with elevated counts in multiple La Niña years due to stronger jet-stream dynamics and increased moisture transport. Early 2026 observations align with this pattern, including above-normal severe-weather days through mid-May. Model guidance from the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate neutral-to-La Niña sea-surface temperatures through summer, supporting the market-implied probability that total annual reports will exceed the higher end of the historical range.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$71,989समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The strong trader consensus favoring 1,250 or more tornadoes in 2026 stems primarily from historical baselines and ongoing La Niña conditions, which typically boost springtime severe weather across the central and southern Plains. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center data show an average of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed tornadoes annually in recent decades, with elevated counts in multiple La Niña years due to stronger jet-stream dynamics and increased moisture transport. Early 2026 observations align with this pattern, including above-normal severe-weather days through mid-May. Model guidance from the Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate neutral-to-La Niña sea-surface temperatures through summer, supporting the market-implied probability that total annual reports will exceed the higher end of the historical range.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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