Elevated confirmed tornado counts through mid-August 2026, exceeding 1,135 according to NOAA and National Weather Service data, have driven trader consensus toward the 1250+ bin. Unusually active patterns in the Midwest, with Illinois alone surpassing 190–200 confirmed events—far above typical state totals—stem from repeated supercell outbreaks fueled by persistent moisture, instability, and favorable wind shear. Spring peaks, including major April events, contributed the bulk of the tally, while summer activity in states like Indiana and Mississippi sustained momentum. With peak climatological season largely complete yet additional fall and winter events probable, current observations and model trends support the market-implied probability that the annual total will surpass the 1250 threshold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
1250+ 84%
1200–1249 7.8%
1150–1199 6.9%
1100–1149 4.1%
$81,752 वॉल्यूम
$81,752 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
8%
1250+
84%
1250+ 84%
1200–1249 7.8%
1150–1199 6.9%
1100–1149 4.1%
$81,752 वॉल्यूम
$81,752 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
$23,720 वॉल्यूम
1%
950–999
$3,618 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 वॉल्यूम
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 वॉल्यूम
7%
1200–1249
$15,917 वॉल्यूम
8%
1250+
$18,543 वॉल्यूम
84%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated confirmed tornado counts through mid-August 2026, exceeding 1,135 according to NOAA and National Weather Service data, have driven trader consensus toward the 1250+ bin. Unusually active patterns in the Midwest, with Illinois alone surpassing 190–200 confirmed events—far above typical state totals—stem from repeated supercell outbreaks fueled by persistent moisture, instability, and favorable wind shear. Spring peaks, including major April events, contributed the bulk of the tally, while summer activity in states like Indiana and Mississippi sustained momentum. With peak climatological season largely complete yet additional fall and winter events probable, current observations and model trends support the market-implied probability that the annual total will surpass the 1250 threshold.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$81,752समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated confirmed tornado counts through mid-August 2026, exceeding 1,135 according to NOAA and National Weather Service data, have driven trader consensus toward the 1250+ bin. Unusually active patterns in the Midwest, with Illinois alone surpassing 190–200 confirmed events—far above typical state totals—stem from repeated supercell outbreaks fueled by persistent moisture, instability, and favorable wind shear. Spring peaks, including major April events, contributed the bulk of the tally, while summer activity in states like Indiana and Mississippi sustained momentum. With peak climatological season largely complete yet additional fall and winter events probable, current observations and model trends support the market-implied probability that the annual total will surpass the 1250 threshold.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$81,752समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated confirmed tornado counts through mid-August 2026, exceeding 1,135 according to NOAA and National Weather Service data, have driven trader consensus toward the 1250+ bin. Unusually active patterns in the Midwest, with Illinois alone surpassing 190–200 confirmed events—far above typical state totals—stem from repeated supercell outbreaks fueled by persistent moisture, instability, and favorable wind shear. Spring peaks, including major April events, contributed the bulk of the tally, while summer activity in states like Indiana and Mississippi sustained momentum. With peak climatological season largely complete yet additional fall and winter events probable, current observations and model trends support the market-implied probability that the annual total will surpass the 1250 threshold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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