El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाजुलाई में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर आए?
जुलाई में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर आए?
<100 40%
100–129 39%
160–189 25%
280–310 25%
नया
नया
1 अग, 2026
<100
40%
100–129
39%
130–159
24%
160–189
25%
190–219
24%
220–249
22%
250–279
21%
280–310
25%
310+
25%
<100 40%
100–129 39%
160–189 25%
280–310 25%
नया
नया
1 अग, 2026
<100
$30 वॉल्यूम
40%
100–129
$44 वॉल्यूम
39%
130–159
$78 वॉल्यूम
24%
160–189
$40 वॉल्यूम
25%
190–219
$41 वॉल्यूम
24%
220–249
$33 वॉल्यूम
22%
250–279
$53 वॉल्यूम
21%
280–310
$131 वॉल्यूम
25%
310+
$40 वॉल्यूम
25%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$489समाप्ति तिथि
1 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$489समाप्ति तिथि
1 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न