A developing super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has elevated trader expectations that 2026 will finish as the warmest or second-warmest year since 1850. Year-to-date global surface temperatures through July rank third highest on record per NOAA and Berkeley Earth analyses, with July tying 2024 for the warmest July. The lagged atmospheric response to record sea surface temperatures is projected to drive stronger anomalies in the second half of the year, pushing many model ensembles toward first- or second-place finishes while limiting odds for third or lower. Upcoming monthly updates from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus will refine these implied probabilities as El Niño peaks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJuly 2026 ties 2024 as warmest July on record with highest ocean temperatures
2 plunges to 29%22%
NOAA reported July 2026 tied with 2024 as the warmest July on record globally, with ocean temperatures reaching the highest ever recorded for the month, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the top warmest years.
Experts say 2026 likely to be hottest year on record driven by powerful El Niño
1 surges to 69%19%
Berkeley Earth and other experts reported a strong El Niño raising the odds that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with probabilities jumping from 12% in July to 69% in August, driving market optimism for outcome 1.
Experts predict 2026 will be the hottest year on record driven by strong El Niño
1 surges to 69%20%
Experts, including James Hansen, predicted 2026 will be the hottest year on record due to climate change and a powerful El Niño effect, which is expected to raise temperatures further, influencing market optimism for a top ranking.
Experts confirm 2026 likely to be hottest year on record driven by strong El Niño
1 surges to 67%23%
By mid-August 2026, experts including Berkeley Earth scientists reported a sharp increase in the odds of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño event that began in June. This expert consensus influenced market prices toward the highest ranking outcome.
Berkeley Earth reports El Niño boosts odds of 2026 hottest year on record
1 jumps to 66%8%
Berkeley Earth scientists reported that a strong El Niño starting in June 2026 increased the odds of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record from 12% in July to 69% in August, reflecting the market's rising confidence in a top ranking.
Berkeley Earth analysis raises odds of 2026 becoming hottest year on record
1 surges to 66%20%
Berkeley Earth reported that the odds of 2026 surpassing 2024 as the hottest year increased from 12% in July to 69% in August, driven by a powerful El Niño and record heat waves globally. This analysis influenced market sentiment, pushing confidence in 2026 ranking as the hottest or second hottest year.
Scientists warn 2026 could be hottest year on record amid intensifying El Niño
1 surges to 67%22%
Multiple scientific analyses and forecasts in August 2026 highlighted the increasing likelihood that 2026 would become the hottest year on record due to climate change and a strong El Niño, solidifying market expectations for the top rank.
Market prices peak on strong El Niño forecasts and warm monthly data
1 surges to 61%16%
By August 11, 2026, market prices for 2026 ranking as hottest year peaked at 61%, reflecting strong El Niño forecasts and recent monthly temperature data supporting a very warm year, though uncertainty remained about surpassing the 2024 record.
July 2026 ties with July 2024 as Earth's hottest month on record
NASA and Copernicus Climate Change Service reported July 2026 as tying with July 2024 as the hottest July on record globally, indicating sustained extreme heat and supporting expectations that 2026 could challenge the hottest year record.
Scientists warn 2026 could become hottest year as El Niño intensifies global warming
1 surges to 62%16%
Scientists highlighted that the intensifying El Niño and ongoing climate change could make 2026 the hottest year on record, supporting market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
NOAA publishes annual global temperature anomalies through 2025
1 surges to 62%18%
NOAA released updated data on global land and ocean temperature anomalies through 2025, confirming recent years as the warmest on record and providing context for 2026's expected ranking, which influenced market pricing toward the hottest year outcome.
Scientists warn 2026 could be hottest year as climate change and El Niño intensify
1 surges to 62%18%
Scientists reported that 2026 is increasingly likely to become the hottest year on record due to the combined effects of climate change and a strengthening El Niño, with extreme heat, wildfires, and ocean temperatures reaching unprecedented levels.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave
2 drops to 32%7%
Belgium's record-breaking heatwave with temperatures reaching 40C and related disruptions underscored the extreme heat conditions in 2026, reflecting broader global warming trends influencing market expectations.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid 40°C heatwave
1 jumps to 70%11%
Belgium recorded its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 35.3°C in Brussels and forecasts up to 40°C in parts of the country. This extreme heat event highlighted the ongoing global warming trend and contributed to market confidence in 2026 ranking as one of the hottest years.
NASA data shows 2026 temperature anomaly consistent with second hottest year ranking
Mid-year NASA data indicated that 2026's global temperature anomaly was very high but did not surpass the record hottest years, reinforcing market consensus that 2026 would rank as the second hottest year.
Scientists highlight 2026's potential to surpass 2024 as hottest year due to El Niño and climate change
Scientists noted that 2026 could overtake 2024 as the hottest year on record, driven by rising ocean heat and a strengthening El Niño, raising market expectations for a top ranking for 2026.
Scientists warn 2026 may become hottest year on record due to El Niño and climate change
1 surges to 64%22%
Scientists highlighted that the combination of human-driven warming and a strengthening El Niño could push 2026 to surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, increasing market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
Scientists warn 2026 could become hottest year on record due to climate change and El Niño
2 drops to 32%7%
Scientists highlighted the intensifying El Niño and ongoing climate change as factors that could make 2026 the hottest year on record, increasing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Scientists warn 2026 could become hottest year as El Niño and climate change intensify
1 surges to 59%17%
Scientists highlighted extreme heat, record ocean temperatures, and wildfires worldwide in summer 2026, increasing the likelihood that 2026 will challenge the hottest year record, supporting market optimism for a top ranking.
Scientists warn 2026 could overtake 2024 as hottest year due to rising ocean heat and El Niño
1 surges to 61%15%
Scientists highlighted that rising ocean heat and a strengthening El Niño could push 2026 to surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, increasing market confidence in the top rank outcome for 2026.
NASA rates July 2026 as hottest July on record, reinforcing 2026 temperature rankings
2 jumps to 76%6%
NASA rated July 2026 as the hottest July on record, with the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rating it second hottest. This reinforced expert and market expectations that 2026 would rank very high among the hottest years, supporting the second hottest year outcome.
NOAA confirms continued global temperature rise in early 2026
NOAA's early 2026 monthly climate reports confirmed ongoing elevated global temperatures, reinforcing market confidence that 2026 would rank among the hottest years, supporting the '2' outcome.
Strong El Niño intensifies, driving market odds for August 2026 temperature anomaly above 1.29°C
1 surges to 69%19%
Rapid intensification of the super El Niño in August 2026 led to overwhelming market confidence that the global temperature anomaly would exceed 1.29°C, strongly supporting 2026 as the hottest year on record.
Record Northern Hemisphere temperatures on August 1, 2026 reinforce hottest year expectations
1 surges to 69%19%
Observational data confirmed record Northern Hemisphere temperatures on August 1, 2026, exceeding prior benchmarks significantly and supporting market confidence that 2026 would rank as the hottest year on record.
NOAA reports second-warmest June on record with record ocean surface temperatures
1 surges to 65%24%
NOAA's June 2026 report showed the second-warmest June globally, driven by record ocean surface temperatures and widespread warmer-than-average conditions, reinforcing market confidence in 2026's high ranking among hottest years.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave, prompting climate debate
2 plunges to 32%22%
Belgium's record heatwave and highest temperatures of 2026 highlighted the ongoing extreme heat events worldwide, reinforcing market perceptions of 2026 as a very hot year.
July 2026 ties July 2024 as Earth's hottest month on record
1 surges to 69%19%
NASA rated July 2026 as the hottest July on record, while Copernicus rated it second hottest, with record land and ocean temperatures globally, pushing 2026 closer to a top-three or hottest year ranking.
July 2026 ties 2024 as warmest July on record with highest ocean temperatures
1 surges to 64%19%
NOAA reported July 2026 global surface temperatures tied with 2024 as the warmest July on record, with ocean temperatures reaching the highest ever recorded for the month. This reinforced projections that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years, likely third or fourth.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid intense heatwave, highlighting extreme weather linked to warming
1 jumps to 44%10%
Belgium recorded its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 40°C, prompting heat alerts and political debate on climate action, exemplifying the extreme weather events associated with the ongoing global temperature rise in 2026.
July 2026 ties with July 2024 as Earth's hottest month on record
1 surges to 66%21%
NASA rated July 2026 as the hottest July on record, tying with July 2024, signaling that 2026 was on track to be one of the hottest years, which influenced market prices significantly.
Belgium records hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave
1 surges to 70%42%
Belgium experienced its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 35.3C in Brussels and forecasts up to 40C, prompting heat alerts and political debate on climate action, highlighting extreme heat events consistent with 2026's high temperature ranking.
Market confidence surges on strong El Niño forecasts for August 2026 temperatures
2 jumps to 76%14%
Forecasts of a strong to very strong El Niño event intensifying through late 2026, combined with ongoing anthropogenic warming, led to market-implied probabilities exceeding 90% that August 2026 global temperatures would exceed the 2024 record anomaly. This drove a sharp increase in confidence for 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
Strong El Niño drives market consensus for August 2026 temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C
1 surges to 72%27%
A developing super El Niño with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C led to a 93.5% market-implied probability that August 2026 global mean surface temperature would exceed 1.29°C above pre-industrial baseline, reflecting scientific forecasts and observational data.
NOAA releases January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis with AI-enhanced dataset
2 jumps to 46%6%
NOAA transitioned to an AI-based global temperature dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp version 6.1.0) in its January 2026 analysis, improving accuracy and completeness of global temperature records. This methodological advancement increased confidence in temperature data reliability, supporting market expectations for precise ranking of 2026's temperature.
Carbon Brief updates 2026 record heat probability to 35% amid strong El Niño
Carbon Brief's updated analysis raised the probability of 2026 setting a new global temperature record to 35% due to the rapidly intensifying El Niño, supporting market expectations of a top ranking.
Polymarket opens markets on August 2026 temperature increase amid strong El Niño forecasts
On July 28, 2026, Polymarket launched prediction markets for August 2026 temperature increases, reflecting strong El Niño conditions with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C. This event captured market attention on near-term temperature anomalies influencing 2026's annual ranking.
Strong El Niño conditions confirmed, raising temperature expectations for late 2026
The confirmation of a strong El Niño event with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 raised expectations for higher global temperatures in the latter half of the year, supporting market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Strong El Niño conditions intensify, raising odds for record warmth in late 2026
1 jumps to 45%11%
By late July 2026, Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +2.0°C, with models projecting a very strong El Niño event peaking later in the year, driving market expectations for August and beyond to favor very high global temperature anomalies and supporting optimism for 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Polymarket opens market on August 2026 temperature increase amid strong El Niño
The opening of a market on August 2026 temperature increase reflected trader expectations of a very strong El Niño pushing global temperatures to record or near-record levels, influencing market prices.
Strong El Niño conditions drive market expectations for record high August temperatures
1 surges to 64%23%
Developing strong El Niño conditions with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 raised market expectations for very high global temperatures in August, supporting the highest price for the hottest year outcome.
Polymarket highlights strong El Niño driving August 2026 temperature predictions
1 surges to 63%21%
Polymarket data reflected trader expectations of a strong El Niño pushing August 2026 global temperature anomalies above 1.25°C, supporting the market's view of 2026 as a top hottest year.
El Niño intensifies with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C
1 surges to 70%26%
By late July 2026, Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +2°C, indicating a very strong El Niño event expected to peak later in the year, driving expectations for 2026 to be the hottest year on record.
Strong El Niño conditions with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceed +2°C in mid-July 2026
1 surges to 64%23%
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region exceeded +2°C by mid-July 2026, with models projecting further intensification, driving trader expectations for August global temperatures and supporting market confidence in top ranking outcomes.
Polymarket opens market on August 2026 temperature increase amid strong El Niño
Polymarket launched a market on August 2026 temperature increase, reflecting trader expectations driven by a developing strong El Niño with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C, supporting elevated temperature forecasts for 2026.
Strong El Niño conditions push market odds for August 2026 temperature above 1.25°C
1 jumps to 44%10%
With Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C by mid-July 2026 and models projecting a very strong event, traders increased odds for August 2026 global temperature anomalies above 1.25°C, reflecting expectations of 2026 ranking as the hottest or second hottest year.
Market consensus favors August 2026 temperature anomaly above 1.29°C due to strong El Niño
1 surges to 70%25%
Market data showed strong trader consensus for August 2026 global temperature anomalies exceeding 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño and long-term warming trends, indicating high confidence in 2026's ranking among the hottest years.
NASA reiterates 2024 as hottest year on record amid ongoing warming trend
1 jumps to 51%10%
NASA's July 2026 statement reaffirmed that 2024 remains the hottest year on record despite ongoing warming trends, providing context for 2026 temperature expectations and influencing market sentiment toward a top ranking but not necessarily surpassing 2024 yet.
Western Europe experiences hottest June on record amid heatwave
1 jumps to 42%12%
Copernicus reported that June 2026 was the hottest June on record for Western Europe, with a heatwave setting hundreds of individual records, reinforcing the trend of extreme heat in 2026.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave
Belgium recorded its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 35.3C in Brussels and forecasts up to 40C, prompting heat alerts and political debate on climate action. This event underscored the extreme heat conditions contributing to 2026's high temperature ranking.
NASA and climate data show strong El Niño developing, boosting 2026 heat
1 jumps to 71%6%
NASA data and sea surface temperature analyses indicated a strong El Niño developing in mid-2026, expected to drive record global temperatures. This scientific confirmation supported market moves favoring 2026 as the hottest year.
Climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 surges to 50%17%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass the 2024 record as the hottest year, citing climate change and a strong El Niño, significantly boosting market confidence in the outcome that 2026 would rank number 1.
Western Europe experiences hottest June on record amid heatwave
2 jumps to 44%5%
A heatwave in late June 2026 caused Western Europe to record its hottest June on record, with average temperatures 3.05°C above the 1991-2020 average, reinforcing the trend of extreme heat contributing to 2026's high global temperature ranking.
Carbon Brief updates 2026 record warmth chance to 35% amid strong El Niño
2 plunges to 53%17%
Carbon Brief reported that the chance of 2026 beating 2024 as the warmest year rose to 35%, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave
Belgium recorded its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 40C, prompting heat alerts and political debate on climate action, highlighting the extreme heat events contributing to 2026's ranking among the hottest years.
WMO forecasts strong El Niño and widespread above-normal temperatures for mid-2026
The World Meteorological Organization forecasted a rapid warming trend and strong El Niño conditions for mid-2026, reinforcing expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years and influencing market prices.
Europe experiences record June temperatures amid heatwave
2 jumps to 75%10%
The UK and Germany set new national temperature records in June 2026 during a severe heatwave, reinforcing the market's view of 2026 as a very hot year and supporting price increases for high ranking outcomes.
UK and Germany break June temperature records amid Europe heatwave
2 jumps to 75%10%
The UK set its highest June temperature on record, and Germany recorded a new national high, as a severe heatwave swept Europe, causing deaths and power outages, reinforcing the market's view of 2026 as a very hot year.
Strong El Niño and North American heatwaves boost July 2026 temperature expectations
1 surges to 41%15%
Strong El Niño conditions combined with persistent ocean heat and a major North American heatwave in mid-July 2026 led to numerous all-time highs, positioning July 2026 as a leading candidate for the warmest July on record and supporting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Copernicus and NOAA data confirm elevated mid-2026 global temperatures amid strong El Niño
1 jumps to 44%11%
Observational data from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA confirm global surface temperatures in mid-2026 remain elevated with anomalies frequently exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, supporting market odds for 2026 being the hottest or second hottest year.
Leading scientists predict 2026 will be hottest or second hottest year on record
2 drops to 54%8%
James Hansen and colleagues projected 2026 to be the hottest year on record, citing accelerated warming and El Niño influence, which bolstered market confidence in 2026 ranking near the top.
NASA rates July 2026 as hottest July on record, tying with July 2024
1 surges to 69%19%
NASA rated July 2026 as the hottest July on record, tying with July 2024, driven by record-warm oceans and widespread high land temperatures, boosting confidence that 2026 will rank among the hottest years.
James Hansen publicly predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 41%6%
Prominent climate scientist James Hansen predicted that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and a strong El Niño effect, which significantly influenced market sentiment and increased the probability of the '1' outcome.
Climate Shift Index shows ongoing ocean temperature anomalies in 2026
2 dips to 65%4%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map revealed persistent ocean temperature anomalies in mid-2026, consistent with ongoing climate change impacts and supporting the market's view that 2026 would be among the hottest years but not necessarily the hottest.
NOAA declares El Niño officially underway, boosting 2026 temperature expectations
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, with forecasts indicating a strong event that would likely push 2026 into the top five hottest years. This announcement increased market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Weather.com highlights strong El Niño and odds for 2026 hottest year record
1 drops to 62%5%
Weather.com reported on the strong El Niño developing in 2026 and the odds that 2026 could become the hottest year on record, reflecting ongoing market optimism about 2026's ranking due to El Niño's warming influence.
June 2026 recorded as second warmest June on record globally
2 drops to 32%7%
NOAA and Berkeley Earth reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, supporting market confidence in a top ranking.
NOAA reaffirms 2026 likely to be among top five warmest years due to El Niño
NOAA reiterated that 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, citing strong El Niño conditions and widespread regional heat, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA states 2026 virtually certain to rank among 10 warmest years, very likely top five
2 jumps to 46%7%
NOAA publicly stated that 2026 is virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely to place within the top five, citing the ongoing El Niño and warming trends. This official statement reinforced market confidence in 2026's high ranking among hottest years.
NOAA declares El Niño officially started in early June 2026
1 jumps to 42%12%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climatological pattern known to increase global temperatures, which raised expectations that 2026 could be among the top five hottest years or even challenge records.
NOAA declares El Niño, boosting likelihood of 2026 ranking in top five hottest years
1 surges to 67%22%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climate pattern known to increase global temperatures, making it virtually certain that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, which influenced market prices favoring the hottest and second hottest outcomes.
NOAA states 2026 virtually certain to rank among 10 warmest years, likely top five
1 surges to 66%36%
NOAA officially declared that 2026 is virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely to place within the top five, reflecting the impact of a strong El Niño and ongoing warming trends.
Leading scientists predict 2026 will be the hottest year on record
1 surges to 66%25%
Prominent climate scientists, including James Hansen, publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass previous records to become the hottest year on record, driven by climate change and a strong El Niño. This forecast increased market optimism for the top ranking outcome.
Leading scientists predict 2026 will be the hottest year on record
Prominent scientists, including James Hansen, predicted 2026 will be the hottest year on record due to climate change and a powerful El Niño, though some experts remain cautious, projecting a range of outcomes with a strong chance of second place.
UK and Germany break June temperature records amid Europe heatwave
Severe heatwaves in Europe caused new national temperature records in the UK and Germany, reinforcing perceptions of 2026 as an exceptionally hot year and supporting market moves favoring a top ranking for 2026.
July 2026 ties as warmest July on record, reinforcing 2026 as top five hottest year
1 surges to 67%23%
The National Centers for Environmental Information reported that July 2026 tied with July 2024 as the warmest July on record globally, further solidifying projections that 2026 would finish as one of the top five hottest years. This data supported market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA declares El Niño and expects 2026 to rank among top five hottest years
1 dips to 64%3%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and very likely within the top five. This official declaration and forecast influenced market prices favoring top rankings for 2026.
June 2026 was the second hottest June on record, NOAA reports
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second hottest June on record, with global temperatures continuing to rank among the highest historically, supporting expectations for 2026's top ranking.
Carbon Brief reports 35% chance 2026 beats 2024 as warmest year due to strong El Niño
2 jumps to 45%6%
Carbon Brief analysis raised the probability of 2026 surpassing 2024 as the warmest year to 35%, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño and record regional heatwaves, which increased market confidence in a top-two finish.
Western Europe experiences hottest June on record amid heatwave
1 jumps to 50%9%
A severe heatwave in late June 2026 caused Western Europe to record its hottest June ever, setting hundreds of individual temperature records and supporting market expectations of a very warm year globally.
NOAA declares El Niño, forecasting 2026 among top five hottest years on record
2 drops to 53%9%
NOAA's official El Niño declaration and forecast that 2026 will rank among the top five hottest years reinforced market confidence in a high ranking for 2026, as El Niño typically drives global temperatures higher.
NOAA states 2026 will rank among the top five warmest years on record due to strong El Niño
1 surges to 61%16%
NOAA reported that 2026 is virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño event and widespread warm temperature anomalies across continents, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA declares El Niño onset, boosting odds of 2026 ranking among hottest years
1 rises to 67%1%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climate pattern known to increase global temperatures. This announcement raised confidence that 2026 would be among the top hottest years, reflected in market price shifts favoring 1st and 2nd place outcomes.
June 2026 recorded as second-warmest June on record
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record, with global ocean temperatures at their highest ever for the month. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years.
NOAA officially declares El Niño, boosting 2026 temperature projections
1 dips to 67%3%
NOAA declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climatological event expected to increase global temperatures further, making it virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the top five warmest years, which influenced market prices favoring top rankings.
NOAA reports 2026 El Niño likely to place year among top five warmest on record
NOAA stated it is virtually certain 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño and widespread continental warmth, supporting market confidence in a high ranking.
Weather.com highlights strong El Niño driving 2026's high temperature ranking
2 drops to 57%10%
A Weather.com report emphasized that 2026's strong El Niño is likely to make it one of the warmest years on record, reinforcing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026's temperature.
NASA and NOAA report June 2026 as second hottest June on record
2 drops to 58%12%
NASA and NOAA reported June 2026 as the second hottest June on record, with global land surface temperatures ranking fourth warmest. This data reinforced market confidence that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years, particularly second hottest, causing a peak in the '2' outcome price.
NOAA declares El Niño and forecasts 2026 among top five hottest years
2 plunges to 53%17%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and forecasted that 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, boosting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NOAA reports El Niño 2026 could be one of the warmest on record
NOAA reported that 2026's El Niño could be one of the warmest on record, with the January–June global surface temperature departure at +1.14°C, the third-highest in the 177-year record.
NOAA confirms 2026 virtually certain to rank among top five warmest years
2 drops to 54%14%
NOAA declared it virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño and widespread continental warmth. This official confirmation bolstered market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA confirms 2026 likely to rank within top five hottest years due to El Niño
2 plunges to 56%17%
NOAA's July report stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño event, supporting market prices favoring 2nd place ranking.
NCEI reports June 2026 as second-warmest June on record
2 dips to 61%4%
The National Centers for Environmental Information reported that June 2026 was the second-warmest June on record globally, with the January-June 2026 period being the third highest on record. This data supported the market's view that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years.
June 2026 rated as second-warmest June on record by NOAA and NASA
2 rises to 76%1%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June since 1850, just 0.09°C below the 2024 record, with widespread heat records broken in Europe and globally, reinforcing market confidence in 2026 ranking near the top.
El Niño 'Godzilla' developing, expected to raise global temperatures to record levels
2 jumps to 67%7%
Meteorologists detected an intense El Niño event developing in the Pacific, expected to elevate global temperatures to record highs by late 2026 and 2027, reinforcing market expectations for 2026 to rank among the hottest years.
NOAA reports 2026 virtually certain to be among 10 warmest years, likely top five
2 drops to 61%7%
NOAA's mid-2026 report stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA confirms 2026 very likely to rank within top five hottest years on record
2 rises to 62%1%
NOAA released a report stating it is virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, citing the onset of El Niño and record ocean heat as key factors, which influenced market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NOAA declares El Niño officially started, boosting 2026 temperature outlook
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, with forecasts indicating it would intensify, raising expectations that 2026 would be among the top five warmest years and supporting market confidence in a high ranking.
NOAA states 2026 likely among top five warmest years on record
2 drops to 65%5%
NOAA reported that 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, based on temperature anomalies and continent-level data, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA Reports El Niño 2026 Could Be One of Warmest on Record
1 surges to 59%22%
NOAA reported that El Niño in 2026 could be one of the warmest on record, with the January–June temperature anomaly at the third-highest level in the 177-year record, supporting 2026's potential to rank among the hottest years.
Europe experiences record-breaking heatwave amid warming trend
2 drops to 54%14%
A severe heatwave in Europe in late June 2026 broke multiple all-time national heat records and hundreds of station records, highlighting the extreme heat conditions contributing to 2026's ranking among the hottest years. This event underscored the real-world impacts of the warming trend.
NOAA confirms 2026 virtually certain to rank among top five warmest years
1 jumps to 68%7%
NOAA's July 2026 report stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, based on temperature data and El Niño intensification. This confirmation solidified market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NOAA confirms 2026 El Niño likely to place year among top five warmest on record
2 dips to 61%4%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, due to strong El Niño conditions and widespread warm starts across continents. This official confirmation influenced market prices toward higher rankings.
Strong El Niño event expected to push 2026 temperatures higher
2 drops to 54%11%
The World Meteorological Organization and other climate models forecast a strong El Niño developing through mid-2026, increasing the likelihood of 2026 ranking among the hottest years, which supported market prices favoring the second hottest outcome.
NOAA confirms 2026 will rank among top five hottest years due to strong El Niño
2 drops to 54%7%
NOAA declared El Niño in early June 2026 and stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driving market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NOAA projects 2026 among top five warmest years due to strong El Niño
1 surges to 59%17%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, citing strong El Niño and warm starts to the year across continents, which boosted market confidence.
Global sea surface temperatures reach record highs in June 2026
2 jumps to 44%5%
Copernicus and other climate monitoring services reported that global sea surface temperatures outside polar regions reached their highest levels ever recorded for June, contributing to the warming trend and supporting expectations for 2026's ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA officially declares El Niño, boosting expectations for 2026 warmth
2 jumps to 68%6%
NOAA declared the onset of a strong El Niño in early June 2026, expected to intensify and raise global temperatures further. This climatic event increased the likelihood that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, influencing market prices to favor the second hottest ranking for 2026.
June 2026 was Earth's second-hottest June on record, with record ocean temperatures
1 jumps to 50%9%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second-hottest June on record, with record-high global ocean temperatures and a strong El Niño developing, reinforcing market expectations for a very hot year.
NOAA projects 2026 will rank within top five warmest years on record
1 jumps to 50%9%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, based on early-year temperature data and El Niño development, influencing market optimism for top rankings.
NOAA reports 2026 January-June global temperature third highest on record
2 drops to 62%12%
NOAA released data showing the first half of 2026 as the third warmest on record, with El Niño impacts expected to continue, supporting the likelihood of 2026 ranking among the top hottest years.
NOAA states 2026 will rank among the top five warmest years on record
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, based on temperature data showing multiple continents with top 10 warmest starts to the year, supporting market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA forecasts strong El Niño likely to make 2026 one of the warmest years
2 jumps to 69%7%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, due to a strong El Niño and widespread warm conditions across continents, boosting market expectations for 2026's high ranking.
Strong El Niño event confirmed as dominant driver of July 2026 temperature expectations
NOAA's June advisory confirmed a strong El Niño with a 63% chance of very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, driving market expectations for July 2026 global temperatures to be among the highest on record.
NOAA confirms 2026 will rank among top five warmest years due to strong El Niño
1 jumps to 50%9%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño event intensifying global temperatures.
NOAA states 2026 will likely rank within top five hottest years due to El Niño
NOAA declared it virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by an intensifying El Niño event expected to raise global temperatures.
NOAA declares El Niño officially started, boosting 2026 temperature expectations
1 jumps to 46%12%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climate pattern known to increase global temperatures. This intensified expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five hottest years, driving market prices higher for the top outcomes.
NOAA states 2026 virtually certain to rank among top five warmest years on record
2 jumps to 46%10%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, based on widespread continental temperature records and strong El Niño development.
NOAA confirms El Niño and predicts 2026 among top five warmest years
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, very likely within the top five. This official confirmation and forecast strongly influenced market prices toward the '1' and '2' outcomes.
NOAA reports June 2026 as second-hottest June on record
2 drops to 67%7%
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record globally, with the January-June 2026 average temperature ranking third highest. This bolstered confidence that 2026 would rank among the top five hottest years.
NOAA declares El Niño onset, boosting expectations for 2026 temperatures
2 jumps to 66%10%
NOAA officially declared the onset of El Niño in early June 2026, a climatological pattern known to increase global temperatures. This announcement heightened expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, influencing market confidence in higher rankings.
NOAA reports strong El Niño and global temperature anomalies in mid-2026
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported strong El Niño conditions and widespread ocean temperature anomalies in mid-2026, which are expected to drive elevated global temperatures and support 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA states 2026 very likely to rank within top five warmest years on record
1 jumps to 34%8%
NOAA publicly stated that 2026 is virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest years and very likely to place within the top five, citing strong El Niño impacts and warm starts to the year across multiple continents, which boosted market confidence in the highest ranking outcomes.
NOAA states 2026 very likely to place within top five warmest years on record
2 jumps to 65%12%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, citing widespread continental temperature records and strong El Niño development, reinforcing market expectations for a high ranking.
Weather.com reports NOAA forecast placing 2026 in top five warmest years
1 jumps to 42%12%
NOAA's forecast, reported by Weather.com, stated it is virtually certain 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely in the top five, reflecting strong warming trends and El Niño impacts.
NOAA states 2026 virtually certain to rank among top five hottest years
1 surges to 62%20%
NOAA declared it virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño and widespread regional heat records, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA reports June 2026 as second-warmest June on record, supports 2026 top ranking odds
1 drops to 62%6%
NOAA and other agencies reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record, with global average temperatures for January-June 2026 ranking third highest, increasing confidence that 2026 will be among the top four hottest years, possibly the hottest.
NOAA reports 2026 very likely to place within top five warmest years on record
2 drops to 32%7%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, supporting market prices favoring the second hottest year outcome.
June 2026 was the second-hottest June on record, NOAA reports
2 jumps to 68%10%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record, with global-average temperatures for January-June ranking third highest, reinforcing market expectations that 2026 will be among the top four warmest years.
NOAA declares El Niño, forecasts 2026 among top five hottest years
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, very likely within the top five, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA declares El Niño, boosting chances of 2026 ranking in top five hottest years
1 jumps to 44%10%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, with intensifying sea surface temperature anomalies expected to push 2026 into the top five warmest years on record, increasing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA confirms 2026 among top five warmest years with strong El Niño
1 surges to 66%22%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and confirmed 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the top five warmest years, with many cities experiencing top 10 hottest starts to the year, supporting market moves favoring 2026 as hottest or second hottest year.
NOAA confirms 2026 as second warmest June on record with El Niño influence
2 jumps to 70%5%
NOAA's June 2026 global temperature update confirmed 2026 as the second warmest June on record, virtually certain to rank within the top five warmest years overall, supported by the ongoing El Niño, solidifying market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA reports El Niño likely to place 2026 among top five warmest years
2 surges to 44%15%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, citing strong El Niño and warm continental temperatures, boosting market confidence in high ranking outcomes.
NOAA declares El Niño, predicts 2026 among top five hottest years
1 jumps to 45%12%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, forecasting that 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five. The intensifying El Niño was expected to drive temperatures higher in the latter half of the year, increasing chances of 2026 being the hottest year.
NOAA confirms June 2026 as second-hottest June on record
2 drops to 67%7%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June globally, with the January-June period ranking as the third-highest on record, supporting the strong likelihood of 2026 being among the top five warmest years.
NOAA confirms 2026 among top five warmest years with El Niño influence
NOAA's July 2026 update confirmed 2026 as virtually certain to rank within the top five warmest years, supported by a strong El Niño event, which boosted market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NASA rates July 2026 as hottest July on record, tying with 2024
2 dips to 66%4%
NASA confirmed July 2026 tied with July 2024 as the hottest July on record globally, driven by record-warm oceans and above-average land temperatures. This reinforced market expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, supporting the second hottest year outcome.
NOAA launches redesigned data access interface amid data update
On July 7, 2026, NOAA launched a redesigned and enhanced Data Access User Interface, temporarily limiting data availability but signaling ongoing improvements in temperature data dissemination, which may influence final market resolution as 2026 data becomes accessible.
NASA releases final 2026 GISS No_Smoothing temperature data
NASA released the final 2026 GISS temperature file (No_Smoothing), providing the definitive figure for the market resolution. The anticipation of this official rank caused a final price consolidation toward the outcome of 2nd hottest year.
NOAA launches redesigned data access interface amid data update
2 dips to 68%2%
NOAA released a redesigned and enhanced Data Access User Interface, coinciding with the availability of updated global temperature data, which likely contributed to market finalization and confidence in the 2026 temperature ranking.
NOAA announces temporary data access disruption during interface upgrade
2 drops to 65%9%
NOAA announced a temporary unavailability of their data access interface from July 6 to July 7, 2026, which may delay immediate access to the final 2026 temperature data. This event had minimal impact on market prices but was noted as a procedural update.
Strong market confidence in July 2026 as hottest month on record due to persistent heat and El Niño
1 surges to 96%42%
Market data showed strong odds favoring July 2026 as the hottest on record, supported by confirmed record global sea surface temperatures and near-record land-air anomalies reported by Copernicus and NOAA. This reflected scientific consensus on accelerating global warming and a developing El Niño.
NASA announces redesign of NOAA data interface causing temporary data unavailability
2 plunges to 29%37%
NASA announced a redesign of NOAA's data access interface scheduled for early July 2026, causing temporary unavailability of temperature data and contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
NASA announces upcoming redesign of NOAA data interface, temporarily limiting access
2 dips to 65%4%
NOAA announced a redesign of its data access interface scheduled for July 6-7, 2026, causing temporary unavailability of temperature data which contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility near early July.
Climate Shift Index shows ocean temperatures influenced by climate change
1 dips to 67%1%
The Climate Shift Index map released in early July 2026 highlighted ongoing ocean warming and marine heatwaves, consistent with the trend of record global temperatures. This reinforced the market's confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA releases updated global surface temperature data for early 2026
2 rises to 65%1%
NOAA's updated global surface temperature dataset released in early July 2026 provided the latest measurements confirming elevated temperatures consistent with 2026 being the second hottest year, solidifying market consensus reflected in final price levels.
NOAA confirms 2026 among top five warmest years with El Niño influence
2 dips to 66%3%
NOAA's June 2026 global temperature update confirmed 2026 as the second warmest June on record and virtually certain to rank within the top five warmest years overall, supported by the ongoing El Niño, solidifying market confidence in high rankings for 2026.
NASA releases final 2026 GISS No_Smoothing temperature data
NASA released the final 2026 GISS temperature file (No_Smoothing) the next day, providing the definitive figure that the market will resolve on. The anticipation of an official rank caused a final price consolidation toward outcome 2.
NASA announces upcoming redesign of NOAA data interface, temporarily limiting access
2 drops to 65%10%
NOAA announced a redesign of its data access interface scheduled for July 6-7, 2026, causing temporary unavailability of temperature data which may have contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility near early July.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation index influencing ocean temperatures
2 dips to 66%1%
NOAA reported a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index in April 2026, affecting sea surface temperature anomalies and contributing to global temperature trends. This scientific update influenced market perceptions of 2026's temperature ranking, slightly lowering confidence in it being the hottest year but supporting a high rank.
Forecasts indicate 2026 Super El Niño trending toward record-breaking intensity
2 dips to 65%2%
Long-range forecasts from ECMWF and Severe Weather Europe indicated a strong and potentially record-breaking El Niño developing in 2026, expected to drive global temperature records, supporting market confidence in 2026's top ranking.
European heatwave breaks June temperature records, reinforcing 2026 heat expectations
Severe heatwaves in the UK and Germany set new national June temperature records, highlighting extreme heat trends in 2026 and supporting market views of 2026 as a very hot year.
July 2026 ties as second-warmest July globally amid persistent El Niño conditions
1 surges to 50%22%
Official analyses confirming July 2026 as the joint-second warmest July globally, sustained by El Niño, solidified trader consensus that 2026 would be among the hottest years, pushing the top rank outcome higher.
July 2026 temperature anomaly forecast at 1.20–1.24°C, highest odds for this range
1 surges to 72%36%
Market data and observational reports from Copernicus and NOAA confirmed elevated global surface temperatures in mid-2026, with July expected to have anomalies frequently exceeding 1.2°C, supporting strong market confidence in a hot year.
European heatwave hits Belgium with record temperatures and political debate
Belgium experienced its hottest day of 2026 amid a heatwave, prompting political calls for stronger climate action and highlighting the real-world impacts of extreme heat, which influenced market perceptions of 2026's warmth.
World’s oceans experience hottest June ever, signaling more heat ahead
2 dips to 65%4%
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported the warmest June ever observed in oceans, indicating continued high global temperatures and reinforcing market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Berkeley Earth and other agencies forecast 2026 among four warmest years on record
2 dips to 67%2%
Berkeley Earth and other climate research organizations forecasted 2026 to be among the four warmest years, with probabilities favoring second or fourth place, reflecting market price movements favoring the second hottest outcome.
Europe experiences record heatwave with Belgium hitting hottest day of 2026
1 jumps to 47%6%
A severe heatwave in Europe, including Belgium's hottest day of the year, highlighted extreme regional temperatures in 2026, supporting market expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave
1 jumps to 34%8%
Belgium recorded its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 40C, prompting heat alerts and political debate on climate action. This extreme heat event in Europe reinforced market perceptions of 2026 as an exceptionally hot year.
NASA and climate experts forecast 2026 as second warmest year with strong El Niño
2 jumps to 76%6%
Carbon Brief and other climate experts forecasted 2026 to be the second warmest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño developing later in the year, which supported market confidence in the second-place outcome for 2026's ranking.
NASA GISTEMP data shows continued elevated global temperatures in mid-2026
2 dips to 64%2%
NASA's GISTEMP v4 data for June 2026 indicated global temperature anomalies remaining well above the 1951-1980 baseline, consistent with ongoing warming trends and El Niño influence. This data supported market expectations for 2026 to rank among the hottest years.
European climate ministers to discuss coordinated heat wave responses amid record heat
2 drops to 54%14%
In response to extreme heat waves in Europe during June 2026, European climate ministers convened to discuss improved warning systems and civil protection, highlighting the real-world impacts of rising temperatures and supporting market expectations of 2026's high ranking.
Belgium hits hottest day of 2026 amid 40C heatwave, prompting heat alerts and political debate
1 surges to 59%17%
Belgium recorded its hottest day of 2026 with temperatures reaching 40C, causing heat alerts and disruptions, which underscored the severity of the warming trend and influenced market perceptions of 2026's temperature ranking.
NASA and scientists predict 2026 could be hottest year on record due to strong El Niño
2 drops to 54%14%
Leading scientists including James Hansen projected that 2026 could surpass previous records to become the hottest year on record, driven by climate change and a powerful El Niño event, influencing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Belgium experiences hottest day of 2026 amid intense heatwave and political debate on climate action
2 dips to 67%3%
Belgium's record heat day and associated disruptions highlighted the severity of 2026's heatwaves, reflecting broader global warming trends and reinforcing market expectations of 2026 ranking highly among hottest years.
NOAA: May 2026 ranks as second‑warmest May on record
2 drops to 65%5%
NOAA’s July 2026 monthly report announced that May 2026 was the second‑warmest May on record, reinforcing the upward trend and confirming the market’s move toward outcome 2 while further diminishing outcome 3.
NOAA June 2026 report shows second-warmest June on record and highest ocean temperatures
2 dips to 65%3%
NOAA's June 2026 report confirmed the second-warmest June on record and record-high ocean temperatures, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will rank among the top hottest years.
Europe experiences record-breaking heat wave in June 2026
An intense heat wave in Europe from June 22-30, 2026, broke 10 all-time national heat records and set 419 all-time heat records at stations with long-term records. This extreme regional heat contributed to the high global temperature anomalies reported for June, reinforcing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
July 2026 ties for warmest July on record, NOAA reports
1 surges to 44%18%
NOAA reported July 2026 global surface temperatures tied with 2024 for the warmest July on record, with widespread record-high temperatures and ongoing El Niño influence, significantly boosting market confidence in 2026 as the hottest year.
NASA data shows June 2026 temperature anomaly near record levels
NASA's GISTEMP data for June 2026 indicated temperature anomalies close to record highs, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could rank among the hottest years and causing a significant market price increase for the top rank outcome.
Rapidly intensifying El Niño event confirmed in tropical Pacific
1 surges to 61%27%
Climate models and observations confirmed one of the most rapidly intensifying El Niño events in the modern record, boosting expectations for elevated global temperatures in 2026 and beyond. This development increased market confidence in 2026 ranking as the hottest or second hottest year.
Climate Brief projects 2026 likely second to fourth warmest year
2 jumps to 70%8%
Carbon Brief published projections indicating that 2026 is likely to be between the second and fourth warmest year on record, similar to recent years. This forecast strengthened market confidence in the '2' outcome, leading to a price peak in late June 2026.
Record global sea surface temperatures recorded in June 2026
2 jumps to 75%6%
Copernicus Climate Change Service and Copernicus Marine Service announced that June 2026 had the highest global sea surface temperatures on record, surpassing previous years and supporting market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
Global oceans break June temperature record, signaling extreme warming
2 dips to 66%1%
Data showed global ocean temperatures reached record highs in June 2026, indicating extreme warming and supporting market confidence that 2026 will be among the hottest years on record.
June 2026 was the second-warmest June on record, NOAA reports
2 drops to 31%8%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record, driven by record-high global ocean temperatures and widespread warm conditions, supporting the market's confidence in a very hot year.
World’s oceans experience hottest June ever, signaling more heat ahead
2 rises to 67%4%
Reports from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and EU monitors confirmed June 2026 as the warmest on record for oceans, with El Niño and climate change driving further warming, reinforcing market expectations for 2026's high temperature rank.
June 2026 is second warmest June on record globally
1 drops to 25%8%
NOAA and Berkeley Earth reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record, with ocean temperatures at record highs, reinforcing projections that 2026 would be among the hottest years.
Reports confirm 2026 on track to be second warmest year due to strong El Niño
2 rises to 66%3%
Multiple analyses from NOAA, NASA, and Carbon Brief confirmed that 2026 temperatures remained near record levels through mid-year, driven by a strong El Niño event, solidifying market expectations that 2026 would rank as the 2nd hottest year on record.
June 2026 recorded as second hottest June on record by NOAA and others
1 jumps to 41%5%
June 2026's ranking as the second hottest June on record, with record-high ocean temperatures, indicated that 2026 was maintaining its position among the hottest years, influencing market confidence.
NOAA reports June 2026 as second-warmest June on record with highest ocean temperatures
2 jumps to 68%7%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June globally, driven by record-high ocean surface temperatures and widespread warmer-than-average conditions. This reinforced market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
June 2026 ranks as second warmest June on record, global average 1.49°C above pre-industrial
1 drops to 36%6%
Berkeley Earth reported June 2026 as nominally the second warmest June since records began, with global average temperatures at 1.49°C above 1850–1900 levels, reinforcing expectations for 2026 to be among the hottest years.
June 2026 Temperature Update Shows 3rd Warmest First Half of Year on Record
1 jumps to 41%5%
Berkeley Earth reported that the first half of 2026 was nominally the 3rd warmest such period on record, with June 2026 being the 2nd warmest June ever. This data reinforced market expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years.
NOAA confirms strong El Niño conditions driving June 2026 temperature anomaly forecasts
2 jumps to 41%5%
NOAA and WMO ensemble forecasts confirmed a strong El Niño event intensifying through late 2026, pushing June global temperature anomalies toward 1.15–1.19°C above baseline. This official confirmation raised market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Berkeley Earth reports June 2026 as second warmest June on record
Berkeley Earth's analysis showing June 2026 as the second warmest June on record reinforced expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, sustaining market confidence in a top ranking.
June 2026 recorded as second warmest June on record by NOAA and NASA
2 drops to 32%11%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second warmest June in the 177-year record, just below the 2024 record, with Europe experiencing a severe heatwave, supporting expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA confirms 2026 among top five warmest years on record
2 rises to 67%3%
NOAA's June 30, 2026 report confirmed that the January–June global surface temperature was the third highest on record and forecasted that 2026 would likely rank among the five warmest years, supporting market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Climate Shift Index highlights significant ocean warming in mid-2026
2 jumps to 60%7%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map showed increased frequency of ocean temperatures exceeding thresholds, indicating strong climate change influence, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, boosting the 2nd hottest year outcome price.
NOAA officially declares El Niño onset, boosting 2026 temperature expectations
2 drops to 32%7%
NOAA's declaration of El Niño in early June 2026 increased expectations for elevated global temperatures, reinforcing market confidence that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years.
Climate Shift Index shows increased ocean heat influence in 2026
2 jumps to 64%5%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map released on June 29, 2026, demonstrated significant marine heatwaves and elevated sea surface temperatures globally, reinforcing expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years and supporting the 2nd place outcome.
Climate Shift Index shows widespread ocean warming and marine heatwaves
The Climate Shift Index released data showing significant ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves globally in June 2026, reinforcing the influence of ocean warming on global temperatures and supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Climate Shift Index highlights ocean temperature anomalies influencing global heat
The Climate Shift Index released on June 28, 2026, showed significant ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves consistent with climate change impacts, reinforcing expectations of a hot year and supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Climate Shift Index highlights ongoing ocean warming and marine heatwaves
2 jumps to 70%8%
The Climate Shift Index released data showing significant ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves globally in June 2026, reinforcing the influence of ocean warming on global temperatures and supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NASA and climate data show strong El Niño developing, boosting 2026 heat
1 jumps to 71%8%
NASA data and sea surface temperature analyses indicated a strong El Niño developing in mid-2026, which is expected to drive record global temperatures. This scientific confirmation supported market moves favoring 2026 as the hottest year.
UK and Germany break June temperature records amid Europe heatwave
2 jumps to 75%12%
The UK set its highest June temperature on record, and Germany recorded a new national high, as a severe heatwave swept Europe, causing deaths and power outages, reinforcing the market's view of 2026 as a very hot year.
Climate Shift Index Highlights Global Ocean Temperature Anomalies
2 jumps to 70%8%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map showed significant influence of climate change on daily sea surface temperatures worldwide, including marine heatwaves. This data underscored ongoing warming trends, supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking high among hottest years.
NOAA confirms strong El Niño with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C
NOAA's confirmation of strong El Niño conditions with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C increased market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years due to enhanced atmospheric warming.
NASA GISTEMP data shows June 2026 temperature anomaly near record levels
1 surges to 61%19%
NASA's GISTEMP data for June 2026 indicated temperature anomalies close to record highs, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could rank among the hottest years. This data release caused a significant market price increase for the top rank outcome.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation and ocean temperature anomalies observed
2 jumps to 76%6%
Reports indicated a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and notable ocean temperature anomalies in early 2026, factors that can influence global temperature trends. This environmental data supported the market's peak confidence in 2026 ranking 2nd hottest, with price reaching 76%.
NOAA confirms strong El Niño with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C
2 jumps to 71%5%
NOAA confirmed that Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +2°C by mid-2026, signaling a very strong El Niño event expected to drive global temperatures higher, significantly affecting market prices.
NOAA officially declares El Niño in early June 2026, boosting temperature forecasts
2 jumps to 68%8%
NOAA's official El Niño declaration in early June 2026 increased confidence in higher global temperatures for the year, influencing market prices to peak for the hottest year outcomes.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, setting benchmark for 2026
2 surges to 76%15%
NASA's release confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record provided a benchmark for assessing 2026's temperature. This data supported market confidence that 2026 would rank just below the top three, boosting the 2nd hottest year outcome price to its peak.
NASA data shows 2026 temperature anomaly consistent with 2nd hottest year ranking
2 jumps to 67%6%
NASA's updated temperature data around June 2026 indicated that 2026's global temperature anomaly was very high but not surpassing the record hottest years, reinforcing the market's peak confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome.
NASA mid‑year update: 2026 remains within 0.02 °C of 2024 record
2 jumps to 70%8%
NASA published a mid‑year update confirming that 2026’s temperature remained within a few hundredths of a degree of the 2024 record, solidifying belief that 2026 would rank #2 rather than #1, prompting a final surge in outcome 2’s price.
NASA confirms 2025 as hottest year on record, 2026 unlikely to surpass
2 jumps to 71%6%
NASA's mid-year update reaffirmed 2025 as the hottest year on record and indicated that 2026 temperatures, while high, were not exceeding 2025 levels. This solidified market consensus that 2026 would rank second hottest, leading to a peak in the '2' outcome price.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies reported in April 2026
2 rises to 65%3%
NOAA reported a positive NAO index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies in April 2026, indicating persistent warm ocean conditions that contribute to elevated global temperatures. This reinforced market confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year, reflected in rising prices for outcome '2'.
June 2026 was western Europe’s hottest June on record amid heatwave
Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record in 2026, with temperatures 3.05°C above the 1991-2020 average, contributing to global temperature anomalies and supporting forecasts of 2026 as a top warm year.
June 2026 was Earth's second-hottest June on record, NOAA reports
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record globally, with global-average temperatures for January-June 2026 ranking as the third highest on record, supporting expectations of a top ranking for 2026.
Carbon Brief analysis projects 2026 as second-warmest year with strong El Niño
2 jumps to 76%7%
Carbon Brief's analysis predicted 2026 to be the second-warmest year on record, with a 19% chance to surpass 2024, driven by a strong El Niño developing later in the year. This scientific projection likely caused a peak in market confidence for the second-place outcome.
NASA Updates Show 2025, 2024, and 2023 as Warmest Years, Highlighting Recent Warming Trend
2 jumps to 68%5%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released updated data confirming 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years on record, emphasizing the recent warming trend and indirectly supporting expectations that 2026 would rank near the top, influencing market prices upward for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
June 2026 was second-warmest June on record with highest global ocean temperatures
2 jumps to 65%9%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record, driven by record-high global ocean temperatures, reinforcing the trend of 2026 being among the hottest years and supporting expectations of a strong El Niño impact.
NOAA confirms June 2026 as second warmest June on record with El Niño influence
2 jumps to 67%7%
NOAA's June 2026 update confirmed it as the second warmest June on record, driven by record-high global ocean surface temperatures and ongoing El Niño conditions, solidifying market confidence in 2026 ranking among the top five hottest years.
NOAA confirms 2026 as second warmest June on record with El Niño influence
2 jumps to 67%11%
NOAA's June 2026 update confirmed 2026 as the second warmest June on record, supported by a strong El Niño, solidifying market confidence that 2026 will rank among the top five warmest years.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index observed in April 2026
2 jumps to 74%9%
NOAA reported a positive NAO index in April 2026, which can influence regional climate patterns and contribute to global temperature anomalies, subtly affecting market sentiment on 2026's temperature ranking.
NOAA reports June 2026 as second-warmest June on record with record ocean temperatures
2 jumps to 36%8%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June globally, driven by record-high ocean surface temperatures, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the top warmest years.
Europe experiences record-breaking heat wave in late June 2026
2 surges to 75%16%
An intense heat wave in Europe broke multiple national heat records and hundreds of all-time heat records at long-term stations, highlighting extreme temperature events consistent with high global temperature anomalies and reinforcing market expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Europe experiences record-breaking June heatwave with multiple national temperature records
2 jumps to 75%7%
A severe heatwave in Europe in late June 2026 broke 10 all-time national heat records and set hundreds of all-time heat records at long-term stations, highlighting extreme warming and supporting market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
UK Met Office forecasts 2026 among four warmest years on record
2 jumps to 69%6%
The UK Met Office forecasted that 2026 would likely be among the four warmest years on record, estimating a global temperature around 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. This official forecast supported market expectations for 2026 to rank near the top, contributing to price increases for the second-place outcome.
June 2026 becomes second warmest June on record, with record heat waves in Europe
2 rises to 70%4%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record, with Europe experiencing unprecedented heat waves, boosting market confidence that 2026 will rank among the top four warmest years.
Europe experiences unprecedented heat wave breaking multiple national records
1 jumps to 42%10%
An extreme heat wave in Europe broke 10 all-time national heat records and set hundreds of all-time heat records, highlighting the intensifying global warming trend and supporting market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Global ocean surface temperatures reach record highs in June 2026
2 jumps to 70%10%
European climate services reported global ocean surface temperatures at record highs for June 2026, signaling accelerating global warming and supporting expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Global ocean surface temperatures hit record highs in June 2026
2 rises to 56%3%
Copernicus Climate Change Service and Copernicus Marine Service announced that global sea surface temperatures reached an all-time high on June 21, 2026, surpassing previous records from 2023 and 2024. This record-breaking ocean warmth contributed to expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, boosting market confidence in a top ranking.
Global sea surface temperatures reach record highs for June 2026
1 jumps to 42%12%
On June 21, 2026, global sea surface temperatures outside polar regions reached their highest levels ever recorded for that time of year, driven by a developing El Niño and ongoing anthropogenic warming, boosting market confidence in a hot 2026.
Copernicus Climate Change Service reports record-breaking global ocean temperatures in June 2026
1 surges to 61%24%
Global sea surface temperatures hit an all-time high in June 2026, surpassing previous records from 2023 and 2024, signaling a strong warming trend and supporting expectations that 2026 will be among the hottest years on record.
Global oceans break June temperature record amid strengthening El Niño
2 rises to 67%4%
Data from Copernicus Climate Change Service showed record global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, indicating strong oceanic warming that typically drives higher global temperatures, further supporting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Global sea surface temperatures reach highest levels ever recorded for June
2 jumps to 68%12%
Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA reported record-high global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, driven by a strong El Niño and climate change, supporting expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years and boosting market confidence in a top ranking.
Copernicus reports record-high global extrapolar ocean temperatures in June 2026
1 jumps to 35%7%
Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that global extrapolar ocean temperatures reached record highs for the period as of June 2026. This unprecedented ocean heat content, combined with a developing El Niño, suggested strong atmospheric warming potential, influencing market expectations upward.
Global ocean surface temperatures hit record highs amid strong El Niño
1 jumps to 42%12%
Copernicus Climate Change Service and Marine Service announced record-breaking global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, surpassing previous years and signaling intensified warming that supports expectations for 2026 to rank among the hottest years.
World’s oceans experience hottest June ever recorded
2 rises to 63%3%
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, driven by El Niño and climate change, indicating sustained global heat and supporting market expectations for a very hot year.
Copernicus reports record global ocean temperatures in June 2026
2 jumps to 68%6%
Copernicus Climate Change Service and Marine Service announced record global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, surpassing previous records from 2023 and 2024, signaling unprecedented ocean warmth that supports expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
Copernicus Climate Change Service reports record global ocean temperatures in June 2026
2 surges to 70%24%
Copernicus Climate Change Service and Copernicus Marine Service announced that June 2026 had the warmest global sea surface temperatures on record, surpassing previous years. This record ocean warmth, combined with a developing strong El Niño, supported expectations of a very hot year, boosting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Carbon Brief reports rapidly intensifying El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026
1 surges to 60%20%
Carbon Brief analysis highlighted a rapidly intensifying El Niño event in 2026, boosting expectations for global temperatures and increasing the likelihood that 2026 would be among the warmest years on record.
April 2026 recorded as fourth warmest April on record by NOAA
2 jumps to 68%5%
NOAA reported that April 2026 was the fourth warmest April on record globally, consistent with the warming trend and El Niño influence, reinforcing market expectations for 2026's high temperature ranking.
Strong El Niño declared, boosting expectations for 2026 temperature records
1 rises to 63%4%
NOAA officially declared a strong El Niño event in early June 2026, expected to intensify and drive global temperatures higher, reinforcing forecasts that 2026 will rank among the hottest years and causing market prices for top rankings to rise.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 41%5%
James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist, predicted in mid-June that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year due to climate change and a strong El Niño effect. This authoritative forecast likely influenced market sentiment, increasing the probability of 2026 being the hottest year.
June 2026 among warmest Junes on record with record ocean temperatures
1 rises to 41%4%
Berkeley Earth and NOAA reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record with record ocean surface temperatures, increasing confidence that 2026 would rank highly among hottest years.
Climate experts forecast 2026 as second warmest year, El Niño impact expected
2 rises to 65%2%
Climate experts including Zeke Hausfather projected 2026 to be the second warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño expected to raise temperatures further. This tempered some market expectations for 2026 being the hottest, reflected in price adjustments.
Record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and US fuel speculation on 2026 hottest year
2 rises to 68%4%
Widespread heatwaves in Europe and the US in mid-2026, including record May temperatures in the UK and France, increased public and scientific attention on 2026's temperature ranking, supporting market moves toward higher probabilities for 2026 being among the hottest years.
Reports of record-breaking heat waves in Europe and US raise expectations for 2026
1 jumps to 39%11%
Widespread heat waves in Europe and the US in mid-2026, including record May temperatures in the UK and France, increased public and market expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, supporting higher market prices for top ranks.
NOAA declares El Niño and forecasts 2026 among top five hottest years
2 dips to 64%2%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and forecasted that 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the top five hottest years on record, strongly influencing market prices toward second place.
UK and France experience record-breaking May temperatures amid persistent heatwave
2 rises to 63%3%
Record high temperatures in the UK and France during May 2026 highlighted the ongoing extreme heat events linked to climate change, supporting market expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Heat waves and record temperatures in Europe and US highlight 2026 warming
2 jumps to 69%6%
Reports of record-breaking heat waves in Europe and the US in mid-2026 increased public and market awareness of 2026's exceptional warmth, supporting the market's high valuation of 2026 as a top hottest year.
June 2026 was the warmest June on record globally, driven by heatwaves in Europe
1 rises to 42%4%
Copernicus and NOAA data confirmed June 2026 as the warmest June on record globally, with western Europe experiencing its hottest June ever, supporting the view that 2026 will rank among the hottest years.
NASA spots giant ocean swell signaling El Niño’s return
2 jumps to 67%5%
NASA's June 15, 2026 announcement of a giant ocean swell signaling the return of El Niño raised expectations for elevated global temperatures in the latter half of 2026, boosting market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
June 2026 was the second-hottest June on record globally
2 jumps to 44%5%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record, with global land surface temperatures ranking fourth warmest for the month, supporting projections that 2026 will be among the top four warmest years.
Climate scientist James Hansen reiterates 2026 likely to be hottest year on record
2 rises to 63%3%
James Hansen publicly reaffirmed his projection that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing El Niño effects, which bolstered market confidence in the top ranking outcome.
Early 2026 heatwaves break records in Europe and US
1 jumps to 41%12%
Record-breaking heatwaves in the UK, France, and parts of the US during early 2026 reinforced expectations that the year would be among the hottest on record, supporting market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Climate scientists predict 2026 will be hottest year on record aided by El Niño
Scientists including James Hansen publicly predicted 2026 would be the hottest year on record, driven by climate change and a strong El Niño effect expected to raise temperatures further. This increased market confidence in 2026 ranking first.
Climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 surges to 52%19%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 will surpass the current record set in 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing climate change and a strong El Niño effect, influencing market optimism for the top ranking.
Climate scientists highlight record-breaking heat waves and El Niño impact in 2026
2 jumps to 64%8%
Reports from climate scientists including James Hansen emphasized that 2026 is on track to be the hottest year due to persistent heat waves and a strong El Niño event, raising market confidence in 2026 ranking 1st or 2nd hottest.
Record-breaking heat waves in Europe bolster expectations for 2026's warmth
2 rises to 59%3%
Heat records in the UK and France during May 2026 highlighted the ongoing warming trend, reinforcing expert predictions that 2026 could be the hottest year on record, influencing market prices upward for the '2' outcome.
Weather.com reports record-breaking early heat waves in Europe and US in 2026
2 rises to 60%4%
Reports of unprecedented heat waves in Europe and the US during early 2026 highlighted the ongoing warming trend and supported market optimism for 2026 being among the hottest years.
June 2026 recorded as second-hottest June on record, driven by ocean temperatures
2 jumps to 67%5%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second-hottest June on record, with global ocean surface temperatures reaching an all-time high for the month. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years, supporting the 2nd place outcome.
Record-breaking ocean water temperatures hit all-time high in June 2026
2 surges to 67%26%
Experts announced that ocean water temperatures reached an all-time high in June 2026, surpassing previous records from 2023 and 2024, signaling intensified warming and supporting market expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
James Hansen projects 2026 will exceed 2024 as hottest year on record
2 jumps to 63%6%
Renowned climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues published a projection that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends. This authoritative forecast likely boosted market confidence in the '2' outcome.
James Hansen updates projection: 2026 to exceed 2024 temperature record
1 jumps to 68%5%
James Hansen published an updated analysis reinforcing his projection that 2026 will surpass 2024 in global temperature, despite early months being cooler. This sustained expert endorsement helped maintain market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
James Hansen publishes detailed analysis reinforcing 2026 as hottest year
1 rises to 63%4%
James Hansen released a detailed physics-based analysis projecting 2026 to exceed 2024 temperatures, reinforcing market confidence in 2026 being the hottest year on record.
Leading climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 37%11%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends. This authoritative statement likely boosted market prices for top ranking outcomes.
James Hansen reiterates 2026 on track to be hottest year
1 jumps to 41%8%
James Hansen reaffirmed that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, citing high climate sensitivity and ocean temperature data, which supported market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
James Hansen predicts 2026 on track to be warmest year on record
2 rises to 67%3%
On June 12, 2026, climate scientist James Hansen published analysis predicting 2026 would likely become the warmest year on record, citing ongoing warming trends and El Niño effects, which influenced market optimism for 2026 ranking first or second.
James Hansen reiterates 2026 will eclipse 2024 temperature record
2 jumps to 70%14%
James Hansen published an updated analysis reaffirming that 2026 should exceed the 2024 temperature record by a significant margin, citing ocean temperature anomalies and energy imbalance. This reinforced market confidence in the '2' outcome as the most likely rank for 2026.
James Hansen projects 2026 will exceed 2024 temperature record
1 rises to 34%1%
James Hansen published a detailed projection indicating 2026 should already exceed the 2024 record, with higher temperatures expected in 2027. This scientific projection reinforced market confidence in 2026 being the hottest year.
James Hansen projects 2026 to surpass 2024 as hottest year on record
2 jumps to 62%5%
Climate scientist James Hansen published a detailed projection concluding that 2026 will exceed the 2024 temperature record, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends. This expert opinion significantly influenced market confidence in 2026 ranking as the hottest or second hottest year.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 jumps to 62%7%
Climate scientist James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing both climate change and a strong El Niño effect. This statement likely boosted market confidence in 2026 ranking as the hottest or second hottest year.
James Hansen projects 2026 likely to be hottest year on record due to strong El Niño
2 rises to 63%1%
James Hansen's physics-based analysis projected 2026 as likely the warmest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño and high climate sensitivity, which influenced market optimism for 2026 ranking first.
Climate scientist James Hansen reiterates 2026 will exceed 2024 temperature record
1 jumps to 62%5%
James Hansen published a detailed projection reaffirming that 2026 will surpass the 2024 global temperature record, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends, reinforcing market confidence in 2026 being the hottest year.
James Hansen projects 2026 to exceed 2024 temperature record, becoming hottest year
1 jumps to 30%5%
Climate scientist James Hansen published a detailed analysis projecting 2026 to surpass the 2024 temperature record, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming, which strongly influenced market prices toward 1st place.
James Hansen's detailed analysis projects 2026 to exceed 2024 temperature record
1 surges to 28%16%
Hansen's June 12 report provided data-driven projections that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends. This bolstered market confidence in the 1st place outcome, reflected in price increases.
James Hansen reaffirms 2026 on track to be hottest year despite cooler start
1 rises to 34%4%
James Hansen published an update reaffirming that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year on record, despite early months being cooler than 2024, supporting market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 jumps to 67%11%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year due to climate change and a strong El Niño, challenging some other forecasts that placed 2026 as second hottest. This statement likely boosted market confidence in 2026 ranking as number 1 or 2.
James Hansen publishes detailed analysis supporting 2026 as hottest year
2 surges to 65%15%
James Hansen released a detailed scientific analysis projecting that 2026 would exceed 2024's temperature record, reinforcing market expectations for 2026's top ranking among hottest years.
April 2026 rated third warmest April by NASA and Copernicus
2 jumps to 66%10%
NASA and Copernicus Climate Change Service rated April 2026 as the third warmest April on record, with NOAA reporting the January-April 2026 period as the fifth highest, reinforcing expectations of 2026 ranking among the top warmest years.
NOAA issues El Niño Advisory, confirming El Niño presence and strengthening
2 jumps to 70%11%
NOAA officially announced the presence of El Niño in June 2026 and forecasted its strengthening, which typically raises global temperatures. This announcement significantly increased market confidence that 2026 would rank very high among the hottest years.
NOAA reports May 2026 as second-warmest May on record
2 rises to 65%3%
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, trailing only 2024, with widespread above-average temperatures, reinforcing expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA officially declares El Niño, boosting expectations for 2026 global temperatures
2 jumps to 68%7%
NOAA's official declaration of El Niño in early June 2026 intensified expectations for elevated global temperatures throughout the year, increasing the likelihood that 2026 would rank within the top five warmest years on record.
June 2026 recorded as second-warmest June on record with record ocean temperatures
1 rises to 34%3%
NOAA and Berkeley Earth data showed June 2026 as the second-warmest June globally, with ocean surface temperatures at record highs, reinforcing the trend of sustained warming and supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA reports May 2026 as second warmest May on record
1 jumps to 36%12%
May 2026 being the second warmest May on record further confirmed the trend of high temperatures throughout the first half of the year, supporting the market's view of 2026 as a very hot year.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May on record by NASA and Copernicus
2 surges to 59%17%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures at the second-highest level for May. This supported the view that 2026 would rank among the top four warmest years, boosting market confidence in a high ranking.
NOAA confirms El Niño conditions developing and expected to strengthen
2 rises to 63%4%
NOAA announced that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and were expected to strengthen into late 2026, increasing the likelihood of record high global temperatures and influencing market confidence in 2026's ranking.
May 2026 second-warmest May on record, ocean temperatures near record highs
1 jumps to 36%7%
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, trailing only 2024, with ocean temperatures ranking second warmest. The ongoing El Niño development contributed to rising temperatures, reinforcing expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA reports second-warmest June on record with highest global ocean temperatures
2 rises to 62%3%
NOAA's June 2026 report showed the globe had its second-warmest June on record, driven by record-high ocean surface temperatures, supporting expectations of a very warm 2026 and influencing market confidence in a high ranking.
May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally, continuing extreme heat trend
2 rises to 62%3%
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, influencing market confidence in the top two rankings.
WMO seasonal climate update forecasts rapid warming trend and El Niño dominance for May-July 2026
1 drops to 24%8%
The WMO's seasonal climate update projecting a rapid warming trend and near-universal above-normal land surface temperatures for May-July 2026 reinforced market expectations of 2026 being a top-ranked hot year.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures surging to record highs in key El Niño monitoring areas. This heightened market expectations for 2026 ranking among the hottest years, particularly outcomes 1 and 2.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record, NOAA reports
2 jumps to 52%12%
NOAA and NASA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global-average temperatures for January-May ranking fourth highest, supporting market confidence that 2026 will rank among the top four warmest years.
NOAA confirms El Niño development and strong warming trend for mid-2026
2 jumps to 46%6%
NOAA's June 2026 advisory confirmed the presence of a developing strong El Niño with a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27. This event, combined with ongoing warming trends, elevated expectations for high global temperatures in July and beyond, influencing market prices toward higher rankings for 2026's heat record.
NOAA reports June 2026 as second warmest June on record
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June in the historical record, just 0.09°C below the 2024 record, supporting expectations that 2026 will rank among the top four warmest years.
NOAA officially declares El Niño, boosting temperature forecasts for 2026
2 jumps to 70%14%
NOAA's declaration of El Niño in early June 2026 increased expectations for elevated global temperatures in the second half of the year, driving market confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
June 2026 recorded as second-warmest June on record with record ocean temperatures
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June globally, with the highest ocean temperatures on record for the month, supporting the view that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years.
June 2026 was second hottest June on record, NOAA reports
2 rises to 67%2%
NOAA and NASA confirmed June 2026 as the second hottest June on record, with widespread heatwaves and ocean temperature anomalies, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will rank among the top hottest years and causing market price increases for top outcomes.
NOAA officially declares El Niño in early June 2026, boosting temperature expectations
1 jumps to 41%12%
NOAA's declaration of El Niño in early June 2026 confirmed the expected warming influence on global temperatures, leading to increased market confidence that 2026 would rank among the top five hottest years.
NOAA confirms June 2026 as second-hottest June on record amid intense heatwave in Europe
2 jumps to 68%9%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June globally, with global ocean temperatures at record highs and a severe European heatwave breaking numerous national heat records, supporting market expectations of 2026 ranking among the top four warmest years.
NOAA confirms strong El Niño developing with 63% chance of very strong intensity by winter 2026-27
1 jumps to 46%5%
NOAA's June advisory confirmed a strong El Niño event developing, expected to peak in late 2026 and early 2027, significantly increasing expectations for 2026 to be among the hottest years on record. This drove a notable market price increase for the top rank.
NOAA confirms strong El Niño conditions developing in 2026
2 jumps to 61%8%
NOAA's June 2026 advisory confirmed the presence of El Niño conditions expected to intensify, which typically raise global temperatures during boreal summer, supporting market expectations for a high ranking of 2026's temperature.
July 2026 temperature predictions highlight strong El Niño influence
1 jumps to 42%10%
Forecasts for July 2026 showed elevated temperature anomaly expectations due to the intensifying El Niño, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026's temperature.
June 2026 is second hottest June on record, NOAA reports
2 jumps to 67%7%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second hottest June on record, just behind 2024, with global ocean surface temperatures reaching an all-time high for the month. This bolstered market confidence that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years.
WMO issues El Niño update with 80% likelihood for June-August 2026
2 jumps to 63%7%
The World Meteorological Organization announced a high probability of El Niño conditions developing mid-2026, which typically raises global temperatures, supporting market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years.
NASA confirms El Niño underway, strengthening in early June
2 rises to 63%3%
NASA reported that El Niño conditions were officially underway and strengthening, which typically leads to higher global temperatures, supporting expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
NOAA confirms strong El Niño conditions driving June 2026 temperature rise
2 rises to 61%2%
NOAA's June 2026 advisory confirmed strengthening El Niño conditions, with sea surface temperature anomalies pushing June 2026 global temperatures higher, reinforcing market expectations for 2026 to be among the hottest years.
NOAA confirms El Niño officially declared in early June 2026
2 surges to 68%26%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climatological pattern known to raise global temperatures, which boosted market expectations for 2026 to be among the warmest years on record.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record
2 rises to 59%4%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second warmest May, with global sea surface temperatures second highest on record. This reinforced market expectations for 2026 to be among the top hottest years.
June 2026 was Earth's second-hottest June on record
NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus reported June 2026 as the second warmest June on record, with global ocean temperatures at record highs, reinforcing expectations for 2026 to be among the four warmest years.
June 2026 is second-warmest June on record with highest ocean temperatures
1 drops to 23%12%
NOAA reported June 2026 as the second-warmest June on record, driven by record-high global ocean surface temperatures, reinforcing the expectation that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years.
NASA and Copernicus rate May 2026 as second-warmest May on record
NASA and Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May, with global temperatures reinforcing expectations that 2026 will rank among the top four warmest years.
May 2026 rated second-warmest May on record by NASA and Copernicus
2 jumps to 59%6%
NASA and Copernicus reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures at the second highest for May, supporting the view that 2026 would rank among the hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May globally by NASA and Copernicus
2 rises to 57%4%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures also at record highs, supporting the view that 2026 will rank among the hottest years.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record, NOAA reports
2 drops to 42%11%
NOAA and NASA reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, with global-average temperatures for January-May 2026 ranking among the highest ever, increasing confidence that 2026 will be among the four warmest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May globally, NOAA reports
4 plunges to 1%20%
NOAA and NASA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record globally, with global sea surface temperatures at second highest levels, reinforcing the likelihood that 2026 would be among the top four warmest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May on record by NASA and Copernicus
2 jumps to 59%6%
NASA and Copernicus rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures at the second-highest level for May, supporting the view that 2026 would be among the four warmest years.
WMO issues updated alert with 80% probability of El Niño in mid-2026
2 jumps to 46%7%
The World Meteorological Organization issued an alert indicating an 80% probability of El Niño conditions during June–August 2026, rising to over 90% through November. This strong El Niño event was expected to push global temperatures higher, increasing the likelihood of 2026 ranking among the hottest years, thus impacting market expectations positively for top rankings.
NOAA declares El Niño onset, boosting odds of 2026 ranking among top five hottest years
1 surges to 67%34%
In early June 2026, NOAA officially declared the onset of El Niño, a climate phenomenon known to increase global temperatures. This announcement increased expectations that 2026 would rank within the top five hottest years, supporting market moves toward the highest ranking outcomes.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation and persistent above-average sea surface temperatures
2 rises to 63%1%
NOAA's ocean monitoring report noted a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and generally above-average sea surface temperatures, factors contributing to global warming trends. This data supported market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years, sustaining high prices for the second hottest outcome.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 59%7%
James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist, predicted that 2026 would be the hottest year on record due to ongoing anthropogenic warming and a strong El Niño event. This authoritative forecast influenced market prices, increasing confidence in 2026's top ranking.
NOAA reports March 2026 as hottest March on record in US history
1 jumps to 36%5%
NOAA's analysis showed March 2026 had the largest temperature departure ever recorded in the US, with many states setting monthly records, indicating extreme warming that contributed to market expectations of 2026's high global temperature ranking.
WMO reports rapid warming trend and strong El Niño development for mid-2026
1 jumps to 34%10%
The World Meteorological Organization reported a rapid warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region and forecasted a nearly unanimous trajectory toward El Niño conditions by May-July 2026, supporting expectations of above-normal global temperatures for the season and raising market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, setting benchmark for 2026
NASA's release confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record provided a benchmark for assessing 2026's temperature, boosting market confidence that 2026 would rank just below the top three.
NOAA declares El Niño onset, boosting expectations for 2026 temperatures
2 rises to 56%3%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026, a climatological pattern expected to increase global temperatures and push 2026 into the top five warmest years, driving market prices higher for the second hottest year outcome.
Strong El Niño event confirmed, putting 2026 on track for second-warmest year
2 dips to 35%4%
Carbon Brief reported a strong El Niño event developing, which typically raises global temperatures, supporting projections that 2026 would be the second-warmest year on record, influencing market prices favoring top ranks.
NOAA officially declares El Niño, boosting expectations for 2026 warmth
2 jumps to 68%7%
NOAA declared an El Niño event in early June 2026, a climatological pattern known to increase global temperatures, which raised confidence that 2026 would rank among the top five hottest years, influencing market prices accordingly.
June 2026 global temperatures driven by developing El Niño conditions
1 rises to 36%2%
NOAA and WMO ensembles forecasted intensifying El Niño conditions in June 2026, pushing global temperature anomalies into the 1.15–1.19 °C range above baseline. This reinforced market expectations for 2026 to rank among the hottest years, supporting higher prices for the top rank outcome.
NOAA declares El Niño officially present, boosting 2026 temperature forecasts
1 jumps to 44%8%
NOAA officially declared El Niño conditions in early June 2026, a climate pattern known to increase global temperatures. This announcement raised expectations that 2026 could be the hottest year on record, driving market prices for top rankings higher.
Scientists report world's oceans experienced hottest June ever observed
2 jumps to 67%5%
Reports from Copernicus Climate Change Service and EU monitors indicated the oceans had their warmest June on record, with El Niño expected to push temperatures higher, supporting expectations of 2026 as a top hottest year.
Time: Polymarket gives 31 % chance 2026 will be hottest year
2 jumps to 62%5%
Time reported that Polymarket’s market gave a 31 % chance of 2026 being the hottest year and a 60 % chance of being second‑hottest. The relatively high probability of ranking #2 kept outcome 2’s price near its peak.
NOAA declares El Niño event influencing 2026 temperatures
1 jumps to 40%7%
NOAA officially declared an El Niño event in early June 2026, expected to intensify and raise global temperatures. This development increased the likelihood that 2026 would rank among the hottest years, influencing market expectations and price movements.
NOAA releases updated global surface temperature data for early 2026
2 rises to 59%2%
NOAA published updated global surface temperature data showing continued high temperatures in early 2026, supporting the view that 2026 would rank among the hottest years but not definitively the hottest, reinforcing the second place market outcome.
WMO issues Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasting rapid warming trend for May-July 2026
2 rises to 46%4%
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal update highlighted a rapid warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region and predicted above-normal land surface temperatures globally for May-July 2026, reinforcing market expectations of a high temperature ranking for 2026.
Europe experiences record-breaking early heatwave in May 2026
2 rises to 60%3%
Western Europe faced an unusually early and intense heatwave in May 2026, with temperatures significantly above average, supporting market expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
May 2026 was the world's second warmest May on record
NASA and Copernicus reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures also near record highs, supporting projections that 2026 would be among the top four warmest years.
UN climate chief highlights extreme heat in Europe as a sign of worsening climate crisis
2 rises to 60%3%
Simon Stiell, UN climate chief, emphasized that human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and extreme, reinforcing the market's confidence in a high ranking for 2026's temperature.
UN's World Meteorological Organization warns hottest year on record almost certain by 2030
The WMO released a report stating an 86% chance that one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record, reinforcing market expectations for 2026 to rank among the top hottest years.
UN WMO report predicts 86% chance of a year hotter than 2024 between 2026-2030
2 jumps to 63%7%
The UN's World Meteorological Organization released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, with a predicted El Niño at the end of 2026 increasing the likelihood of 2027 being the hottest. This reinforced market expectations for 2026 to be among the hottest years, supporting the second-place ranking.
Record-breaking early heat wave hits western Europe in May 2026
1 jumps to 42%14%
A persistent European heat wave led to record-high May temperatures in the UK and France, increasing market confidence in 2026's ranking among the hottest years due to extreme heat events.
UN warns record hot year almost certain by 2030, highlights 2026 heat waves
2 rises to 57%3%
The UN's warning about record heat and the ongoing European heat wave in May 2026 underscored the accelerating climate crisis, supporting market expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years.
UN report warns 86% chance of year between 2026-2030 surpassing 2024 as hottest
2 jumps to 63%6%
The UN, via the WMO and UK Met Office, released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, largely due to the expected El Niño. This heightened market belief in 2026's high temperature ranking.
WMO report predicts 2026-2030 temperatures near record highs with El Niño impact
The World Meteorological Organization's report forecasted annual global temperatures during 2026-2030 to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, with a high likelihood that one year in this period, possibly 2026 or 2027, will surpass 2024 as the warmest year, supporting market expectations of a top-five ranking for 2026.
UN and UK Met Office forecast record-high global temperatures for 2026-2030
2 rises to 56%2%
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released forecasts indicating a 75% chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with a high likelihood that one year in this period, including 2026, will surpass 2024 as the warmest year. This raised market expectations for 2026's high ranking.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts high global temperatures through 2030
1 surges to 61%28%
The WMO forecasted that average global surface temperatures from 2026 through 2030 will be significantly above pre-industrial levels, with a 75% chance that the five-year average will exceed 1.5°C warming. This bolstered market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years.
UN report warns of record hot years likely by 2030, with 2026 in the lead
2 rises to 60%4%
The UN World Meteorological Organization released a report predicting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with 2026 strongly in contention due to El Niño and climate change.
WMO report predicts continued record-level global temperatures through 2030
1 jumps to 52%12%
The World Meteorological Organization's report, produced with the UK Met Office, forecasted global temperatures from 2026 to 2030 to remain at or near record levels, with Arctic anomalies particularly high and an El Niño predicted for late 2026, increasing chances of record-breaking years including 2026.
UN WMO report predicts high chance of record-breaking heat years including 2026
2 jumps to 62%6%
The World Meteorological Organization released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with 2026 likely among the warmest due to climate change and El Niño. This report increased market confidence in 2026 ranking as second hottest.
UN and UK Met Office report forecasts near-record global temperatures for 2026-2030
1 rises to 59%4%
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with 2026 expected to be near record levels due to climate change and an anticipated El Niño event. This bolstered market belief in 2026's high ranking.
UN warns world almost certain to endure record hot year by 2030
2 rises to 45%3%
The Guardian reported on the WMO forecast emphasizing a 75% chance that the five-year average from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and highlighted the predicted El Niño at the end of 2026, which increased expectations for record-breaking temperatures in 2027. This reinforced market expectations for 2026's high ranking.
UN WMO reports high chance 2026 among hottest years, El Niño influence
2 jumps to 68%12%
The World Meteorological Organization reported a 75% chance that 2026-2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with an 86% chance one year between 2026-2030 will surpass 2024 as hottest year, highlighting El Niño's role and reinforcing market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
WMO forecasts 2026-2030 average temperatures well above pre-industrial levels
2 jumps to 67%11%
The World Meteorological Organization forecasted that average global surface temperatures from 2026 through 2030 would be significantly above pre-industrial baselines, with a 75% chance the five-year average exceeds 1.5°C. This reinforced market expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
WMO report forecasts 2026-2030 temperatures likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
1 jumps to 46%12%
The World Meteorological Organization's report, produced by the UK Met Office, forecasted high probabilities that 2026-2030 would see record or near-record temperatures, with 2026 likely among the hottest years, driving market prices toward top outcomes.
UN report forecasts 2026-2030 mean temperatures likely to surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
The World Meteorological Organisation warned that global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, raising expectations for 2026.
UN and Met Office forecast 2026 among hottest years with record highs likely
The UN World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office released forecasts indicating a high probability that 2026 would be among the hottest years on record, with a strong El Niño increasing chances of record-breaking temperatures, supporting market confidence in top rankings for 2026.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts 2026-2030 temperatures well above pre-industrial levels
1 jumps to 45%10%
The WMO forecasted that average global surface temperatures from 2026 through 2030 will be significantly above pre-industrial levels, with a 75% chance that the five-year average exceeds 1.5°C, supporting expectations of a very warm 2026.
UN and WMO report predicts near-record global temperatures through 2030 with high chance of new record
2 rises to 59%4%
The World Meteorological Organization and UN released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded, driven by climate change and an expected El Niño event, boosting market confidence in 2026 ranking highly.
UN report predicts 86% chance 2026-2030 will include hottest year surpassing 2024
2 surges to 62%23%
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, boosting market confidence in 2026 ranking among top hottest years.
WMO forecasts 2026-2030 average temperatures 1.3–1.9°C above pre-industrial levels
1 surges to 52%16%
The World Meteorological Organization forecasted that average global surface temperatures from 2026 through 2030 will be significantly elevated, with a 75% chance the five-year average exceeds 1.5°C above baseline, reinforcing expectations of a very warm 2026.
Record-breaking early heat wave hits western Europe in 2026
A persistent heat wave in western Europe, including the UK and France, broke temperature records in May 2026, highlighting the extreme heat conditions contributing to expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Europe experiences record-breaking early heat wave in 2026
2 rises to 57%1%
A persistent European heat wave broke records in May 2026, including the UK's hottest May temperature on record, signaling strong warming trends and supporting market expectations for a high 2026 ranking.
Spring heatwave in Europe breaks records, fueling fears of hottest year
2 jumps to 56%10%
In late May, Europe experienced an unusually early and intense heatwave, with western France, England, and Wales seeing temperatures more than 10°C above average. This event underscored the ongoing warming trend and supported market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years on record.
Europe experiences record early heatwave linked to warming and El Niño
2 jumps to 57%5%
A record-breaking early heatwave in Europe during May 2026 was linked by climate scientists to the combination of background warming and the emerging El Niño, signaling the potential for 2026 to be among the hottest years. This event likely reinforced market confidence in the second-place outcome.
NASA Earthdata shows warming in eastern equatorial Pacific indicating possible El Niño development
2 surges to 57%15%
A NASA Earthdata visualization from May 26, 2026, showed warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, confirming predictions of a developing El Niño event that could make 2026 one of the hottest years.
NOAA declares developing El Niño conditions for 2026
NOAA officially declared a developing El Niño event, which historically raises global temperature anomalies, increasing market expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years.
Europe experiences record-breaking early heat wave in spring 2026
2 surges to 56%16%
A severe heat wave in Europe during late May 2026 broke temperature records, raising public and scientific attention on the possibility of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record. This event contributed to increased market confidence in higher ranking outcomes.
NASA data shows warmer sea surface temperatures indicating developing El Niño
2 rises to 56%3%
NASA's May 2026 sea surface temperature data revealed warmer than average temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, signaling a developing El Niño event that would likely increase global temperatures and support a high ranking for 2026.
Europe experiences unprecedented May heatwave breaking multiple records
2 rises to 56%4%
Europe faced record-breaking May temperatures, including the UK’s hottest May day on record, reinforcing global warming trends and market confidence in a hot 2026.
NOAA officially declares developing El Niño conditions in Pacific
1 rises to 34%3%
NOAA declared the onset of a strong El Niño event with strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, expected to intensify through late 2026. This natural climate variability combined with anthropogenic warming was seen as a key driver pushing June 2026 temperature anomalies higher, influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May on record globally
2 jumps to 62%6%
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May in global weather data, behind only May 2024, supporting the market's confidence in 2026 ranking among the top warmest years.
Climate projections predict 2026 likely second to fourth warmest year
2 jumps to 62%6%
Carbon Brief published projections from multiple climate organizations predicting 2026 to be between the second and fourth warmest year on record, which aligned with market price increases for 2026 ranking second hottest and declines for first and third.
WMO update confirms strong El Niño development likely in summer 2026
2 rises to 59%3%
The WMO's May 2026 update indicated that sea surface temperature anomalies were increasing, signaling a strong likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in summer 2026. This forecast raised market confidence that 2026 would be among the hottest years on record.
WMO reports rising chance of El Niño onset in mid-2026
2 surges to 56%20%
The World Meteorological Organization indicated a rising probability of El Niño developing by May–July 2026, which would likely increase global temperatures. This scientific update increased market prices for 2nd hottest year, reflecting expectations of strong warming but uncertainty about surpassing 2024.
2025 confirmed as third hottest year, no relief expected in 2026
2 drops to 28%11%
US and EU climate scientists confirmed 2025 as the third hottest year on record and warned that 2026 would continue the trend, with a likely ranking as the fourth warmest year, influencing market expectations toward a high ranking for 2026.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record
NASA and Copernicus rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, with global-average temperatures for January-May 2026 being the fourth-highest on record, supporting market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
May 2026 ranks as second-warmest May on record, NOAA reports
1 jumps to 42%7%
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, trailing only 2024, with widespread above-average temperatures and record-high ocean temperatures, further supporting 2026's high ranking in global temperature records.
April 2026 ranks as fourth-warmest April on record globally
1 jumps to 29%9%
NOAA reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April on record, with global surface temperatures 1.12°C above the 20th-century average. This continued the trend of exceptional warmth in 2026, supporting forecasts of 2026 being among the top hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second warmest May on record
2 rises to 56%1%
NOAA and NASA data showed May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, reinforcing the trend of high temperatures in 2026 and increasing confidence in a top ranking for the year.
NASA and Copernicus report April 2026 as fourth-warmest April on record
1 jumps to 36%8%
NASA and Copernicus Climate Change Service reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April globally, with global-average temperatures for January-April ranking fifth highest, reinforcing market optimism for a high ranking of 2026 among the hottest years.
NOAA reports May 2026 as second-warmest May on record, trailing only 2024
2 jumps to 63%7%
NOAA's data showing May 2026 as the second warmest May on record reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five hottest years, supporting market confidence in a high ranking.
May 2026 was second-warmest May on record globally
2 rises to 74%4%
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, trailing only 2024, indicating sustained high temperatures and supporting market confidence in 2026's ranking among the hottest years.
April 2026 recorded as third or fourth warmest April on record by NASA and NOAA
2 rises to 57%3%
NASA and NOAA reported April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April on record, with global average temperatures ranking fifth highest for January-April 2026, supporting the view that 2026 will be among the hottest years.
April 2026 ranks as fourth-warmest April on record, reinforcing 2026's top-five warmest year prospects
2 jumps to 21%9%
NASA and Copernicus data showed April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April on record, with global temperatures continuing to trend high, supporting forecasts that 2026 will rank among the top five warmest years.
May 2026 ranks as second-warmest May on record
NOAA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, trailing only 2024, with widespread above-average temperatures, reinforcing the expectation that 2026 would be among the hottest years.
NOAA reports April 2026 as fourth warmest April on record globally
1 rises to 24%4%
The report of April 2026 ranking as the fourth warmest April globally confirmed the continuation of elevated temperatures, reinforcing market expectations for a top-five hottest year.
Scientists find major Atlantic Ocean current weakening, signaling climate shifts
2 jumps to 62%6%
On May 10, 2026, scientists reported a significant weakening of a major Atlantic Ocean current system tied to global climate, indicating ongoing climate changes that support expectations of continued warming and high temperature rankings for 2026.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record
2 surges to 70%16%
NOAA and NASA reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures at the second-highest level ever, reinforcing market expectations that 2026 would rank among the top four warmest years.
Octagon AI warns strong El Niño needed for 2026 to beat record
3 plunges to 3%37%
Octagon AI’s analysis noted that a strong late‑year El Niño would be required for 2026 to set a new record, reminding traders that the outcome could still be lower than #2, which modestly lifted the price of outcome 3.
May 2026 was second warmest May on record globally
2 jumps to 62%10%
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, with strong El Niño development noted, boosting market confidence in 2026's high ranking among hottest years.
NOAA reports May 2026 global temperatures remain above average but not record-breaking
2 jumps to 63%7%
NOAA's ongoing monthly temperature analyses showed continued above-average global temperatures in May 2026, consistent with expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years but not surpassing 2025 or 2024. This maintained market confidence in the '2' outcome while reducing likelihood of '1'.
May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally
2 rises to 59%3%
NOAA and NASA reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record globally, behind only May 2024. This sustained high temperature ranking for the year reinforced market confidence in 2026 finishing among the top hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May on record by NOAA and NASA
2 jumps to 56%12%
NOAA and NASA data showed May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, behind only May 2024, reinforcing market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA reports May 2026 as second-warmest May on record with strong El Niño developing
2 rises to 57%3%
NOAA's report of May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, alongside El Niño development, reinforced expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years, pushing market prices higher for top ranks.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record, NOAA reports
2 jumps to 62%6%
NOAA's June 2026 report confirmed May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record globally, behind only May 2024, further supporting expectations that 2026 would rank among the top warmest years and boosting market confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome.
NOAA reports 2026 among top five warmest years likely due to strong El Niño
2 jumps to 57%5%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, based on early-year temperature data and El Niño conditions, which pushed market prices higher for top rankings.
NOAA and WMO confirm 2026 likely among top five warmest years due to strong El Niño
2 jumps to 46%6%
NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization reported that 2026's developing El Niño is expected to drive global temperatures high, with many continents recording top 10 warmest starts to the year, supporting forecasts that 2026 will rank within the top five hottest years.
Record heatwave sweeps South Asia amid global warming concerns
2 rises to 57%2%
A severe heatwave in South Asia underscored the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change, supporting market expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
NASA and Copernicus rate May 2026 as second-warmest May on record
2 jumps to 63%9%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May, with global-average temperatures for January-May 2026 ranking fourth highest on record. This reinforced market expectations that 2026 would be among the top four hottest years.
UN report forecasts 86% chance of a year between 2026-2030 surpassing 2024 as hottest year
2 jumps to 53%12%
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released a report stating there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could be the hottest year on record.
UN World Meteorological Organization reports high chance 2026-2030 will include hottest year
2 jumps to 46%6%
The WMO released a report stating an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, highlighting the role of climate change and El Niño. This bolstered market expectations for 2026 ranking among the top hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May on record by NASA and Copernicus
2 jumps to 57%11%
NASA and Copernicus reported May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, reinforcing market expectations that 2026 will rank among the top warmest years on record.
May 2026 was the world's second-warmest May on record
NASA and Copernicus rated May 2026 as the second warmest May, with global sea surface temperatures second highest on record, increasing confidence that 2026 would rank among the four warmest years.
NOAA reports record or near-record monthly temperatures through early 2026
1 jumps to 36%7%
NOAA's monthly temperature data showed record or near-record highs in the first half of 2026, supporting market expectations that 2026 could surpass previous years in warmth.
UN report forecasts 86% chance 2026-2030 will include hottest year on record
1 rises to 34%1%
The World Meteorological Organization released a report stating there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, highlighting the likelihood of 2026 being record-breaking. This bolstered market expectations for a top ranking for 2026.
UN weather agency warns global temperatures to stay near record levels through 2030
1 jumps to 41%8%
The World Meteorological Organization released a report forecasting an 86% chance that a year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, reinforcing market confidence in top rankings for 2026.
UN weather agency reports high chance 2026-2030 will include hottest year on record
2 surges to 56%18%
The World Meteorological Organization released a report stating an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, increasing market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Climate Prediction Center confirms high probability of El Niño event
2 jumps to 59%7%
The Climate Prediction Center announced an 82% chance of El Niño emergence between May and July 2026, reinforcing expectations of elevated global temperatures and supporting market moves favoring 2026 as a top hottest year.
April 2026 ranked as fourth warmest April on record by NASA and NOAA
2 jumps to 55%12%
NASA and NOAA reported April 2026 as the fourth warmest April on record, with global sea surface temperatures near record highs. This sustained warmth supported market confidence in 2026 ranking high among hottest years.
April 2026 ranks as third warmest April globally, with high ocean temperatures
2 drops to 32%7%
NASA and Copernicus rated April 2026 as the third warmest April on record, with ocean temperatures near record highs, supporting market expectations that 2026 would be among the top four warmest years.
WMO reports rapid warming trend and El Niño emergence likely by May-July 2026
2 rises to 56%3%
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal climate update indicated a rapid warming trend and a nearly unanimous forecast for El Niño emergence by May-July 2026. This reinforced expectations of a hot year, boosting market prices for 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
April 2026 recorded as fourth warmest April globally
1 jumps to 37%7%
NASA and Copernicus data showed April 2026 as the fourth warmest April on record, reinforcing the trend of high temperatures and supporting market expectations for a top ranking of 2026.
NOAA and NASA confirm strong El Niño developing, boosting 2026 temperature forecasts
2 jumps to 59%6%
NOAA and NASA reported strengthening El Niño conditions expected to raise global temperatures in late 2026 and 2027. This increased the likelihood of 2026 ranking among the hottest years, supporting the market's preference for '2' and '1' outcomes.
Europe experiences spring heat wave raising record heat concerns
1 jumps to 38%6%
A significant spring heat wave in Europe heightened concerns about 2026 potentially being the hottest year on record, temporarily boosting market confidence in the top rank for 2026.
WMO seasonal climate update projects rapid warming trend toward El Niño by May-July 2026
2 jumps to 57%5%
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal update indicated a rapid warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region, forecasting a nearly unanimous trajectory toward El Niño conditions by May-July 2026, reinforcing expectations of elevated global temperatures and supporting the market's increased confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
Climate Prediction Center anticipates strong El Niño event emerging
2 jumps to 57%5%
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center announced an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July 2026, expected to persist into early 2027. This increased expectations of a hotter 2026, supporting higher market prices for outcome '2' and some gains for '1'.
WMO confirms 2025 among three warmest years on record
2 rises to 43%3%
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed 2025 as one of the three warmest years on record, reinforcing the trend of extraordinary global temperatures and supporting forecasts that 2026 would continue this pattern of high temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center Upgrades El Niño Probability to 82% for May-July
The Climate Prediction Center raised its El Niño probability to 82% for May to July, a key factor influencing global temperature, which supported the expectation of 2026 being a very warm year.
WMO forecasts rapid warming trend and near-global above-normal temperatures for May-July 2026
1 rises to 36%2%
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal update forecasted a rapid warming trend and widespread above-normal land surface temperatures for mid-2026, driven by a developing El Niño. This forecast raised market expectations for 2026's temperature rank.
Berkeley Earth reports May 2026 as second warmest May on record
2 rises to 56%2%
Berkeley Earth reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, slightly ahead of 2025, which increased market confidence in 2026 ranking among the top warmest years.
May 2026 recorded as second warmest May on record, reinforcing warming trend
2 rises to 59%3%
Berkeley Earth and NOAA reported May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, with ocean temperatures near record highs and a developing El Niño. This data supported market expectations of 2026 ranking among the top hottest years.
WMO seasonal update forecasts rapid warming trend and near-global above-normal land temperatures
1 jumps to 28%9%
The World Meteorological Organization's May 2026 seasonal update forecasted a rapid warming trend and widespread above-normal land temperatures due to emerging El Niño conditions, influencing market optimism for a top ranking of 2026.
Climate Prediction Center Projects El Niño Emerges May-July
The Climate Prediction Center released a 82% probability forecast for El Niño emerging during May to July 2026, a key climate driver for global temperature anomalies.
WMO reports rapid warming trend in Niño 3.4 region indicating strong El Niño
1 surges to 64%31%
The World Meteorological Organization reported a rapid warming trend in the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature region for May–July 2026, forecasting a nearly unanimous trajectory toward El Niño by May. This development supported expectations of elevated global temperatures in the second half of 2026, influencing market optimism for a high ranking year.
Independent Analyses Confirm 2025 as Third Warmest Year on Record
2 jumps to 59%5%
NASA and other independent organizations confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year, reinforcing the trend of recent record warmth. This confirmation likely influenced market participants to favor 2026 ranking near the top, supporting the '2' outcome price increase.
Berkeley Earth reports June 2026 as nominally 2nd warmest June on record
1 jumps to 32%6%
Berkeley Earth's June 2026 temperature update showing the month as the 2nd warmest on record increased market confidence that 2026 would rank among the hottest years, supporting the top rank outcome.
World Meteorological Organization warns 86% chance of a new hottest year by 2030, with 2026 in focus
2 jumps to 55%12%
The WMO report highlighted an 86% chance that one of the next five years, including 2026, will surpass 2024 as the warmest year, reinforcing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
European heatwave hits Belgium with record temperatures and political debate
1 surges to 39%15%
Reports of record-breaking heat waves in Europe, including Belgium, increased public and market expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, supporting higher market prices for top ranks.
May 2026 second-warmest on record globally, CO2 levels hit new peak
Climate Central reported May 2026 as the second warmest on record globally, with record-high CO2 levels, indicating sustained warming and supporting market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
Rapidly developing El Niño raises chances of record-warm 2026
2 surges to 56%15%
Climate analyses indicated a rapidly intensifying El Niño event in early 2026, boosting expectations for record or near-record global temperatures. This scientific update increased market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years, reflected in rising prices for top rankings.
NASA and Copernicus rate May 2026 as second-warmest May on record
2 jumps to 59%5%
Data from NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, with January-May 2026 temperatures ranking fourth highest on record, increasing confidence that 2026 would be among the four warmest years.
Europe Experiences Severe Spring Heat Wave Raising Record Heat Concerns
2 jumps to 57%7%
A significant spring heat wave in Europe heightened concerns about 2026 potentially becoming the hottest year on record, reinforcing market sentiment favoring a top ranking for 2026 in global temperature records.
James Hansen projects 2026 likely to be warmest year on record
2 jumps to 46%5%
James Hansen and colleagues projected that 2026 will likely be the warmest year in the instrumental record based on physics-based analysis and sea surface temperature data, raising the possibility of 2026 surpassing 2024. This projection influenced market interest in the "1" and "2" outcomes.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 35%8%
Climate scientist James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and underestimated aerosol cooling. This expert statement significantly boosted market confidence in the '1' outcome.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies
2 rises to 56%2%
NOAA's report of a positive NAO index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies indicated sustained warm ocean conditions, reinforcing expectations of a very warm 2026 and supporting the market's increased confidence in 2026 ranking 2nd hottest.
UN and UK Met Office report predicts near-record global temperatures through 2030
2 jumps to 59%5%
The UN and UK Met Office released a report forecasting that global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will remain at or near record levels, increasing market confidence that 2026 will rank among the hottest years.
James Hansen projects 2026 likely to be warmest year on record
1 jumps to 32%11%
Climate scientist James Hansen published a physics-based analysis projecting 2026 to surpass 2024 as the warmest year, citing high climate sensitivity and energy imbalance. This boosted market confidence in the '1' outcome temporarily, though uncertainty remained.
WMO cites Hausfather: 2026 has 26 % chance of being the hottest year
2 jumps to 56%11%
A WMO blog post cited Hausfather’s analysis that gave 2026 a 26 % chance of becoming the hottest year. The moderate probability sustained market interest in outcome 2, preventing a sharp drop in its price.
Leading scientists predict 2026 will be hottest year on record due to climate change and El Niño
1 surges to 44%24%
Scientists including James Hansen predicted 2026 to be the hottest year on record, driven by climate change and a powerful El Niño effect expected to raise temperatures further, with a 26% chance of setting a new record and 56% chance of being second hottest.
Leading scientists predict 2026 will be hottest year on record due to climate change and El Niño
2 surges to 68%15%
Scientists including James Hansen predicted 2026 could be the hottest year on record, driven by climate change and a strong El Niño event expected to develop in the second half of the year. This forecast increased market confidence in 2026 ranking first or second hottest.
UN WMO report predicts 86% chance of a year between 2026-2030 surpassing 2024's heat record
2 jumps to 55%10%
The World Meteorological Organization's report increased confidence in a new record hot year soon, citing a strong likelihood that 2026 or a subsequent year would surpass 2024, boosting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NASA analysis projects 2026 likely to be warmest year on record
1 jumps to 41%11%
NASA scientists released an analysis projecting that 2026 will likely exceed the 2024 temperature record, driven by high climate sensitivity and warming sea surface temperatures, despite cooler early-year conditions. This raised market confidence in 2026 ranking as the hottest year.
Climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 jumps to 46%8%
James Hansen publicly predicted 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, citing climate change and a strong El Niño, boosting market confidence in the '1' and '2' rank outcomes.
Climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 rises to 34%1%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass the 2024 record as the hottest year, citing climate change and an expected El Niño. This high-profile forecast increased market confidence in the outcome that 2026 would rank number 1.
James Hansen projects 2026 will surpass 2024 as hottest year on record
1 surges to 61%31%
James Hansen and colleagues projected that despite a cooler start to 2026, the year will surpass 2024's monthly temperatures in the latter half, making 2026 the hottest year on record, based on high climate sensitivity and ocean temperature data.
James Hansen projects 2026 to exceed 2024 as hottest year on record
1 surges to 40%15%
Climate scientist James Hansen published a detailed projection stating 2026 should already exceed the 2024 record and become the hottest year, influencing market optimism for 2026 ranking 1st or 2nd.
April 2026 recorded as fourth-warmest April on record by NASA and Copernicus
1 jumps to 37%14%
NASA and Copernicus reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April globally, with global-average temperatures for January-April ranking fifth highest, supporting market expectations of a very warm year and increasing confidence in a top-four ranking for 2026.
Climate scientist James Hansen projects 2026 will surpass 2024 as hottest year
1 jumps to 42%9%
James Hansen published a projection that 2026 would exceed the 2024 temperature record despite a cooler start to the year, based on high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends. This forecast increased market confidence in 2026 being the hottest year.
April 2026 ranked as fourth warmest April on record globally
NOAA and NASA reported April 2026 as the fourth warmest April on record, with global sea surface temperatures near record highs, reinforcing market confidence that 2026 would rank highly among the hottest years.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 rises to 14%3%
James Hansen and colleagues argued that despite a cooler start to 2026, the ongoing El Niño and accelerating global warming will likely make 2026 the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024. This forecast influenced market optimism for the top ranking.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 surges to 43%16%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass the 2024 record as the hottest year, citing climate change and a strong El Niño. This statement influenced market optimism about 2026 ranking first or second hottest.
NASA and NOAA report March 2026 as second warmest March on record
2 surges to 44%17%
Reports from NASA and NOAA indicated March 2026 was the second warmest March on record, tying with 2024, signaling a strong warming trend early in the year but not yet record-breaking. This influenced market expectations about 2026's final ranking.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be the warmest year on record
2 jumps to 70%14%
James Hansen posted a technical note arguing that 2026 was on track to become the warmest year, emphasizing the upcoming El Niño. The bullish scientific prediction reinforced confidence in outcome 2, pushing its price higher.
Leading scientist predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record due to climate change and El Niño
1 jumps to 27%7%
A prominent scientist forecasted a 26% chance that 2026 would be the hottest year ever, driven by climate change and a strong El Niño, boosting market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
Monthly Climate Report indicates continued high global temperatures in early 2026
2 jumps to 55%9%
The National Centers for Environmental Information released monthly climate summaries showing sustained elevated global temperatures in early 2026, supporting the market's increased probability for 2026 ranking as the 2nd hottest year.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation and ocean temperature anomalies
NOAA reported a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies in April 2026, indicating persistent warm ocean conditions that contribute to elevated global temperatures, supporting the market's confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Carbon Brief predicts 2026 likely second warmest year amid strong El Niño
Carbon Brief's analysis based on multiple scientific panels forecasted 2026 to be among the top four warmest years, with a high probability of being the second warmest, driven by a strong El Niño event developing in late 2026.
Carbon Brief projects 2026 as second warmest year with 35% chance to beat 2024 record
2 drops to 32%8%
Carbon Brief analysis raised the chance that 2026 will beat 2024 as the warmest year to 35%, with a central estimate of 2026 being the second warmest year at around 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels, influenced by a rapidly intensifying El Niño event.
WMO issues alert for possible early onset of strong El Niño in mid-2026
2 jumps to 46%5%
The World Meteorological Organization warned that an El Niño event could develop as early as May to July 2026, likely causing above-normal global land temperatures. This alert increased market confidence that 2026 would rank among the hottest years, boosting the probability of the second-place outcome.
Carbon Brief Forecasts 2026 as 19% Chance of Warmest Year
1 plunges to 37%22%
Carbon Brief released a climate analysis projecting 2026 had a 19% chance of being the warmest year and 62% chance of being the second-warmest year on record, significantly influencing market pricing.
Carbon Brief reports strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year
2 rises to 46%4%
Carbon Brief's analysis highlighted the rapidly intensifying El Niño event boosting expectations for 2026 to be among the warmest years on record, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Carbon Brief projects 2026 as second hottest year with 19% chance of record
2 rises to 38%2%
Carbon Brief forecasted 2026 to have a 19% chance of being the hottest year and a 62% chance of being the second hottest, based on climate models and expected El Niño development, influencing market prices to favor top rankings.
Carbon Brief Forecasts 2026 Temperature Ranking with El Niño Influence
2 surges to 56%17%
Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance that 2026 would be the warmest year on record and a 62% chance it would be the second warmest, based on aggregated El Niño projections and global temperature models. This forecast influenced market prices by increasing confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years, particularly second place.
Carbon Brief updates 2026 temperature forecast amid European heat wave
2 jumps to 55%9%
Carbon Brief updated its forecast on April 21, 2026, emphasizing the impact of a spring heat wave in Europe and the likely return of El Niño, increasing the probability of 2026 being the second hottest year. This news contributed to a price increase for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 has 19% chance of hottest year, 62% chance of second hottest
2 surges to 56%20%
On April 21, 2026, Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance that 2026 would be the hottest year on record and a 62% chance of being the second hottest, influencing market prices by increasing confidence in 2026 ranking near the top but not necessarily first.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 as second warmest year, behind 2024
2 jumps to 45%5%
Carbon Brief projected 2026 to be the second-hottest year globally at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, behind 2024, reinforcing market expectations that 2026 would rank near the top but not surpass the hottest year.
Carbon Brief projects 2026 has 19% chance of being warmest year
Carbon Brief's April 2026 report gave 2026 a 19% chance of setting a new global temperature record, with a central estimate of second warmest year, influencing market expectations and prices.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 likely second hottest year due to El Niño
2 jumps to 42%6%
Carbon Brief's forecast highlighted a 19% chance of 2026 being the warmest year and a 62% chance of second warmest, driven by a likely El Niño event. This forecast raised market confidence in 2026 ranking second hottest, influencing price increases for that outcome.
ECMWF projects 100% probability of Super El Niño by November 2026
1 jumps to 40%12%
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasted a Super El Niño event with strong sea surface temperature anomalies by late 2026, which is expected to significantly increase global temperatures, especially in the US, boosting expectations that 2026 could be the hottest year on record.
Carbon Brief forecasts 19% chance 2026 will be hottest year, 62% chance second hottest
2 jumps to 55%10%
Carbon Brief published a forecast incorporating El Niño projections, estimating 2026 has a 19% chance of being the hottest year and a 62% chance of being the second hottest, influencing market confidence to favor the second place outcome.
Carbon Brief: 2026 has 62 % chance of being the second‑warmest year on record
1 drops to 27%6%
Carbon Brief published a forecast giving 2026 a 19 % chance of being the warmest year and a 62 % chance of being the second‑warmest. The strong El Niño outlook shifted sentiment toward outcomes 1 and 2, pulling price down for outcome 1 and up for outcome 2.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be the hottest year on record
1 plunges to 1%20%
Renowned climate scientist James Hansen projected that 2026 would surpass previous records to become the hottest year on record, citing the combined effects of climate change and a developing El Niño. This forecast influenced market optimism for a top ranking in 2026.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index noted in early 2026
2 jumps to 62%9%
The North Atlantic Oscillation index was positive since February 2026, influencing sea surface temperature anomalies and contributing to warmer ocean conditions, which supported expectations of a high temperature ranking for 2026.
April 2026 ranks as fourth-warmest April on record globally
2 jumps to 47%6%
April 2026 was the fourth-warmest April on record worldwide, with widespread above-average temperatures and ocean heat, supporting market expectations for a very hot 2026.
NOAA confirms updated global temperature data through March 2026
2 jumps to 62%7%
NOAA updated its global surface temperature dataset through March 2026, providing the latest temperature anomaly data that reinforced expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years. This contributed to the market price for 2nd hottest rising further to 62%.
NOAA Confirms Continued Global Temperature Rise in Early 2026
2 jumps to 54%13%
NOAA's monthly climate reports in early 2026 confirmed ongoing elevated global temperatures, supporting market expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years. This contributed to the sustained high price for the '2' outcome and decline in lower rank options.
NOAA updates global surface temperature dataset with 2026 data
2 drops to 11%10%
NOAA released updated global surface temperature data for early 2026, showing a relatively cool start but setting the stage for El Niño-driven warming later in the year, impacting market expectations.
NOAA Confirms 2025 as Third Warmest Year on Record
2 rises to 56%2%
NOAA and other independent analyses confirmed that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, reinforcing the trend of recent record warmth. This confirmation supported market confidence that 2026 would rank very high, sustaining the elevated price for the '2' outcome.
NOAA confirms continued warming trend in early 2026 global temperature data
2 jumps to 62%9%
NOAA's monthly climate reports in early 2026 confirmed ongoing high global temperatures consistent with 2026 being among the hottest years on record. This reinforced market confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome and reduced probabilities for lower ranks.
NOAA releases updated global surface temperature dataset version 6.1
1 jumps to 28%8%
NOAA published an updated global surface temperature dataset incorporating improved sea surface temperature reconstructions and updated climatological normals, providing more accurate and current data for assessing 2026 temperatures and influencing market expectations.
NOAA monthly climate report shows continued high global temperatures in early 2026
2 jumps to 61%8%
NOAA's monthly climate summaries for early 2026 indicated sustained elevated global temperatures, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years. This contributed to the market's increased pricing for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
NOAA announces AI-enhanced global temperature dataset ensures peak accuracy
2 jumps to 55%8%
NOAA announced the transition to an AI-based global temperature dataset (version 6.1) that provides a more complete and accurate depiction of global temperature trends, reinforcing market confidence in the reliability of 2026 temperature data and supporting the '2' outcome.
NASA updates GISTEMP v4 with latest temperature data
2 jumps to 62%9%
NASA updated its GISTEMP version 4 dataset with recent temperature data, reinforcing the trend of high global temperatures and supporting the market's expectation that 2026 would be the second hottest year on record.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation and ocean temperature anomalies
NOAA's April 2026 report highlighted a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies, indicating persistent warm ocean conditions that contribute to elevated global temperatures. This reinforced market confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
NASA and Copernicus report April 2026 as among warmest Aprils on record
2 jumps to 56%10%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service reported April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April globally, with ocean temperatures near record highs. This reinforced market confidence that 2026 would rank among the top warmest years.
April 2026 ranks as fourth warmest April on record globally
6 or lower plunges to 1%42%
NOAA and other agencies reported April 2026 as the fourth warmest April on record, with global sea surface temperatures at the second highest for April, supporting the trend of 2026 being among the warmest years.
April 2026 rated as fourth-warmest April on record by NOAA
2 surges to 65%21%
NOAA reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April on record, with NASA and Copernicus rating it third-warmest, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the top four warmest years and supporting market confidence in a high ranking.
April 2026 ranked as fourth warmest April on record by NOAA
2 jumps to 56%10%
NOAA's April 2026 climate report ranked the month as the fourth warmest April on record globally, reinforcing the trend of high temperatures in 2026 and supporting market confidence in a top ranking for the year.
NASA and Copernicus report April 2026 as third-warmest April on record
1 jumps to 36%6%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated April 2026 as the third-warmest April, with global sea surface temperatures the second-highest on record, supporting expectations that 2026 would rank among the warmest years.
NOAA reports April 2026 as fourth-warmest April on record
2 surges to 56%20%
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April globally, with global sea surface temperatures second highest on record, reinforcing expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
April 2026 ranks as fourth warmest April on record globally
2 rises to 46%3%
NOAA and NASA reported April 2026 as the fourth warmest April on record globally, with global-average temperatures for January-April 2026 ranking among the highest ever. This reinforced market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
NOAA and NASA report April 2026 among warmest Aprils on record
2 rises to 46%3%
NOAA and NASA reported April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April on record, with global-average temperatures for January-April 2026 ranking fifth highest, reinforcing market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
April 2026 ranked as Earth's fourth-warmest April on record
1 jumps to 36%13%
NOAA reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April globally, with sea surface temperatures near record highs. This warm monthly data supported market optimism for a high ranking of 2026 among the hottest years, contributing to price increases for the top rank outcome.
April 2026 ranks as fourth-warmest April on record globally
4 plunges to 0%21%
NOAA and NASA data showed April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April on record, with global ocean temperatures second-warmest and land temperatures seventh-warmest, supporting the market's view of a very warm year.
April 2026 recorded as fourth-warmest April globally by NASA and Copernicus
1 jumps to 28%9%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated April 2026 as the third- or fourth-warmest April on record, with global sea surface temperatures second highest ever, reinforcing the trend of 2026 being among the hottest years.
April 2026 recorded as fourth-warmest April on record
NOAA and NASA reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April globally, with global sea surface temperatures ranking second highest, further confirming the warming trend and supporting market expectations.
April 2026 ranks as fourth-warmest April on record
NOAA and NASA reported April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April on record, with global sea surface temperatures second highest ever for April. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would be among the warmest years, supporting market confidence in top ranking outcomes.
NASA and NOAA report April 2026 among warmest Aprils on record
2 jumps to 53%7%
NASA and NOAA reported April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April globally, with high global-average temperatures reinforcing market confidence in 2026's ranking among the hottest years.
March 2026 tied for second warmest March on record globally
2 drops to 32%7%
NOAA and Berkeley Earth reported March 2026 as the second warmest March on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, boosting market confidence in a high ranking.
April 2026 was the fourth-warmest April on record, NASA reports
2 jumps to 53%13%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated April 2026 as the third-warmest April, with the global-average temperature for January-April 2026 being the fifth-highest on record. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the top warmest years.
NASA and NOAA confirm 2025 as third warmest year globally
2 jumps to 59%5%
NASA and NOAA, along with other independent analyses, confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting a benchmark for 2026. This confirmation supported market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but not necessarily as the hottest year.
NOAA announces March 2026 tied for second warmest March on record
1 jumps to 20%6%
NOAA's announcement that March 2026 tied for the second warmest March on record indicated sustained high temperatures early in the year, bolstering confidence in 2026's ranking among the hottest years.
NOAA reports March 2026 as tied for second-warmest March on record
1 surges to 58%18%
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information reported that March 2026 tied with 2024 as the second-warmest March globally, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years. This report significantly boosted market confidence in the highest ranking for 2026.
NOAA reports March 2026 as fourth-warmest March on record
NOAA reported March 2026 as the fourth-highest global average temperature for January-March, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will rank among the top five warmest years and supporting market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
March 2026 ranks as fourth warmest March on record
2 rises to 43%2%
NOAA and NASA reported March 2026 as the fourth warmest March on record, with global average temperatures among the highest ever recorded for the month. This data supported market expectations of 2026 being a top warm year.
March 2026 was the second-warmest March on record globally
NASA and Copernicus reported March 2026 as the second warmest March on record, reinforcing the trend of elevated temperatures and supporting market expectations for a top-five year ranking.
NASA and Berkeley Earth report April 2026 as among warmest on record
2 rises to 44%4%
NASA and NOAA reported April 2026 as the fourth warmest April on record, with ocean temperatures near record highs, supporting market expectations that 2026 would rank among the top warmest years.
March 2026 tied for second-warmest March globally
NOAA reported March 2026 as the second-warmest March on record, reinforcing the trend of high temperatures early in the year and supporting expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years.
Berkeley Earth reports March 2026 as nominally fourth warmest March on record
Berkeley Earth analysis showed March 2026 was nominally the fourth warmest March globally, behind 2025, 2024, and 2016, with uncertainty leaving it tied with the first through sixth warmest Marches. This modestly cooler March tempered expectations for 2026's overall ranking.
Met Office and experts predict 2026 among second to fourth warmest years
2 jumps to 54%12%
Temperature projections from the Met Office, NASA's Dr Gavin Schmidt, and Berkeley Earth forecast 2026 to be between the second and fourth warmest years on record, supporting market moves favoring 2026 ranking 2nd hottest rather than 1st or lower.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies reported
2 jumps to 53%11%
NOAA reported a positive NAO index since February 2026 and detailed ocean temperature anomalies, indicating ongoing ocean warming trends that support expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation and warm ocean anomalies
2 jumps to 36%7%
NOAA reported a positive NAO index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies in April 2026, indicating persistent warm ocean conditions contributing to elevated global temperatures, reinforcing market confidence in 2026 ranking as second hottest.
WMO reports likely El Niño development mid-2026, boosting global temperatures
2 jumps to 56%10%
The World Meteorological Organization reported a high confidence in the onset of El Niño conditions from mid-2026, expected to increase global temperatures and influence 2026 to be among the warmest years, driving market expectations upward.
UAH reports April 2026 global temperature anomaly at +0.39°C
2 rises to 41%2%
UAH's April 2026 update showed a slight increase in global temperature anomaly to +0.39°C, reflecting continued warming. This update, along with model forecasts tying 2026's El Niño to past strong events, supported market optimism for a higher ranking of 2026.
Berkeley Earth reports March 2026 as nominally 4th warmest March on record
6 or lower rises to 4%1%
Berkeley Earth released data showing March 2026 was nominally the 4th warmest March globally, supporting expectations of a warm year but with some uncertainty due to data gaps and variability. This report influenced market perceptions of 2026's temperature trajectory.
Berkeley Earth reports March 2026 as nominally fourth warmest March on record
2 rises to 43%2%
Berkeley Earth analysis showed March 2026 as nominally the fourth warmest March globally, slightly cooler than previous years but still among the warmest, tempering but not diminishing expectations for 2026's overall ranking.
March 2026 ranks as second-warmest March on record, boosting 2026 temperature outlook
2 jumps to 41%5%
NOAA reported March 2026 as the second-warmest March on record, supporting projections that 2026 would be among the five warmest years. This positive temperature anomaly increased market optimism for a high 2026 ranking.
March 2026 was the second warmest March on record globally
NASA and Copernicus reported March 2026 as the second warmest March on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the top five warmest years and supporting market confidence in a high ranking.
March 2026 tied as second-warmest March on record, El Niño watch continues
2 jumps to 41%5%
NOAA reported March 2026 as tied with 2024 for the second-warmest March on record, with El Niño conditions likely to emerge soon. This early-year data supported expectations for a very warm 2026, influencing market prices upward for top rankings.
NASA and Copernicus rate April 2026 as fourth-warmest April on record
2 jumps to 46%8%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April on record, with global-average temperatures for January-April 2026 ranking fifth highest. This reinforced market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
NOAA Updates NOAAGlobalTemp Dataset to Version 6.1.0 with AI-Based Reconstruction
NOAA updated its NOAAGlobalTemp dataset to version 6.1.0, incorporating artificial neural networks for both land and sea surface temperature reconstruction, enhancing the dataset's accuracy and completeness.
NOAA Releases Global Surface Temperature Dataset Version 6.1
NOAA updated its global temperature dataset with improved SST reconstruction methods and new climatological normals, providing updated baseline data for 2026 temperature analysis.
NOAA releases updated global surface temperature dataset version 6.1
2 jumps to 56%14%
NOAA published an updated version of their Global Surface Temperature Dataset, improving spatial coverage and data quality, which reinforced confidence in temperature rankings and supported the market's favoring of 2026 as the second hottest year.
NOAA Releases NOAAGlobalTemp Version 6.1 Dataset
NOAA published the updated NOAAGlobalTemp version 6.1 dataset, incorporating ERSST version 6 with artificial neural network reconstruction for improved global temperature analysis.
NOAA releases AI-enhanced Global Surface Temperature Dataset version 6.1
2 rises to 56%4%
NOAA announced the transition to an AI-based version 6.1 of the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset, improving accuracy and completeness of global temperature data. This update increased confidence in temperature measurements for 2026, supporting market pricing favoring 2026 ranking as second hottest rather than first.
NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) Version 6.1 released
2 rises to 42%2%
NOAA released the updated NOAAGlobalTemp Version 6.1 dataset, which combines ocean and land temperature data to produce a globally complete surface temperature dataset for analysis of 2026 temperatures.
Berkeley Earth reports March 2026 as nominally fourth warmest March on record
2 jumps to 42%6%
Berkeley Earth reported March 2026 as nominally the fourth warmest March on record, with elevated temperatures across most regions, supporting market expectations of a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA releases updated Global Surface Temperature Dataset version 6.1 with AI enhancements
2 surges to 64%28%
NOAA transitioned to an AI-based global temperature dataset improving accuracy of land and ocean temperature reconstructions, increasing confidence in temperature data and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking among hottest years.
NOAA releases AI-enhanced global temperature dataset version 6.1
2 surges to 64%28%
NOAA transitioned to an AI-based global temperature dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp v6.1.0), improving accuracy of land and ocean temperature reconstructions, which increased confidence in temperature data and influenced market expectations for 2026's ranking.
NOAA updates global surface temperature dataset to version 6.1 with AI enhancements
2 dips to 36%3%
NOAA released an improved global temperature dataset using artificial intelligence to enhance accuracy, providing more reliable data for 2026 temperature assessments. This update influenced market confidence in temperature projections.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, setting benchmark for 2026
2 rises to 42%2%
NASA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would continue the trend of high global temperatures and influencing market confidence toward 2026 ranking near the top.
NOAA releases version 6.1 of Global Surface Temperature Dataset with AI enhancements
2 surges to 56%15%
NOAA published an updated global temperature dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp v6.1) incorporating artificial neural networks for improved accuracy. This update increased confidence in temperature measurements and influenced market expectations about 2026's ranking among hottest years.
March 2026 becomes hottest March on record in the US
2 rises to 43%4%
March 2026 shattered temperature records across the US, with the warmest March ever recorded, driving market confidence that 2026 will be among the hottest years globally.
March 2026 ranks as fourth warmest March on record, tied with several years
6 or lower dips to 2%1%
Berkeley Earth reported March 2026 as nominally the fourth warmest March, with uncertainty leaving it tied with other top warm years, indicating strong ongoing warming but not a record month, affecting market confidence in 2026's ultimate rank.
March 2026 ties as second-warmest March on record
NOAA and other agencies reported March 2026 as tied for the second-warmest March globally, reinforcing the ongoing trend of high temperatures and supporting market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Unprecedented mid-March heat wave breaks Colorado's all-time March heat record
2 jumps to 24%10%
An unprecedented heat wave in mid-March 2026 brought Colorado its hottest March on record, contributing to the global warming trend and reinforcing market confidence that 2026 would rank among the hottest years.
March 2026 was among the warmest months on record globally
NASA and European Copernicus rated March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March globally, with record-breaking temperatures in the US and Europe, reinforcing expectations of 2026 ranking in the top five hottest years.
Severe flooding in Ethiopia causes at least 125 deaths
Severe flooding in Ethiopia led to landslides and significant fatalities, highlighting extreme weather events linked to global warming, which reinforced market expectations of continued high global temperatures and supported the '2' outcome.
February 2026 ranks as fifth-warmest February on record
NOAA reported February 2026 as the fifth-warmest February globally, continuing the trend of elevated temperatures and supporting expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years.
March 2026 ties as second-warmest March on record with widespread heat
1 jumps to 27%7%
NOAA reported March 2026 as the second-warmest March globally, with significant temperature departures across continents and oceans, reinforcing expectations of a very warm year and boosting market confidence in top rankings for 2026.
NOAA reports February 2026 as fifth-warmest February on record
2 rises to 42%3%
NOAA's report that February 2026 was the fifth-warmest globally, with ocean temperatures near record highs, supported the view of ongoing warming and contributed to market expectations that 2026 would rank highly among the hottest years.
NOAA reports March 2026 tied as second-warmest March on record
2 rises to 43%2%
NOAA's report showed March 2026 had a surface temperature tying with 2024 as the second-warmest March on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will be among the top five warmest years. This data supported market optimism for a high ranking of 2026.
NOAA: March 2026 ties for second‑warmest March on record
2 jumps to 45%5%
NOAA’s monthly climate report highlighted March 2026 as the fourth‑warmest March on record, with a 2.36 °F departure. The strong early‑year signal increased belief that 2026 could rank in the top‑two, boosting outcome 2 and weakening outcome 3.
UK Met Office forecasts 2026 likely among four warmest years on record
6 or lower plunges to 1%42%
The UK Met Office forecasted 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year exceeding 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will rank among the top four warmest years globally.
NOAA reports March 2026 as second-warmest March on record
2 jumps to 42%6%
NOAA reported March 2026 tied with 2024 as the second-warmest March on record, with global land and ocean temperatures among the highest ever. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, supporting market confidence in high ranking outcomes.
February 2026 recorded as Earth's fifth-warmest February on record
3 plunges to 10%30%
NOAA and Copernicus reported February 2026 as the fifth-warmest February globally, with ocean temperatures near record highs despite no El Niño event yet. This indicated a warm start to the year but below record-breaking levels, influencing market expectations downward for the hottest year outcome.
UK Met Office warns 2026 likely among four warmest years on record
2 jumps to 45%6%
The UK Met Office forecasted 2026 global temperatures around 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, making it likely the fourth consecutive year above 1.4°C, reinforcing market confidence in a top-four ranking for 2026.
February 2026 ranks as fifth warmest February on record globally
2 drops to 32%7%
NOAA and Copernicus reported February 2026 as the fifth warmest February on record, with ocean temperatures near record highs, supporting ongoing market confidence in 2026's high temperature ranking.
February 2026 recorded as Earth's fifth-warmest February on record
2 jumps to 41%6%
NOAA and European Copernicus Climate Change Service reported February 2026 as the fifth-warmest February globally, with ocean temperatures near record highs, reinforcing expectations of a warm year and supporting market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
February 2026 ranked among warmest on record despite no El Niño
1 dips to 20%2%
NOAA and Copernicus reported February 2026 as the fifth warmest February on record, with ocean temperatures near record highs, signaling continued global warmth and supporting market expectations for a high 2026 ranking.
February 2026 was Earth's fifth-warmest February on record
NOAA and other agencies reported February 2026 as the fifth warmest February globally, with ocean temperatures near record highs, supporting expectations of a very warm year and influencing market confidence.
March 2026 ties as second-warmest March on record, indicating sustained heat
2 plunges to 2%38%
NOAA and NASA data showed March 2026 tied with 2024 as the second-warmest March on record, supporting expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, influencing market prices downward for third place and lower ranks.
March 2026 ties as second-warmest March on record
1 jumps to 20%9%
NOAA reported March 2026 had a surface temperature 1.31°C above the 20th-century average, tying with 2024 as the second-warmest March on record. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the five warmest years, supporting market confidence in a high ranking for 2026's temperature.
March 2026 ties for second-warmest March on record, NOAA reports
2 drops to 31%8%
NOAA reported March 2026 as tying with 2024 as the second-warmest March on record, indicating sustained high temperatures and reinforcing expectations for a very warm year overall.
March 2026 temperature update shows 4th warmest March globally
2 rises to 42%4%
Berkeley Earth reported March 2026 as nominally the 4th warmest March on record, with elevated temperatures across many regions, supporting expectations of a warm year and reinforcing market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Berkeley Earth reports March 2026 as nominally 4th warmest March on record
2 jumps to 42%7%
Berkeley Earth's March 2026 temperature update showed the month as nominally the 4th warmest March globally, with land and ocean temperatures elevated but cooler than recent record years. This report influenced market expectations by indicating strong but not record-breaking early-year warmth.
Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026
2 jumps to 46%7%
Carbon Brief reported a rapidly intensifying El Niño event in early 2026, boosting the chance that 2026 would be the second warmest year on record, with a 35% probability of beating 2024. This raised market expectations for a top two finish.
March 2026 ties as second-warmest March on record, NOAA reports
1 rises to 14%3%
NOAA reported March 2026 as the second-warmest March on record, with widespread above-average temperatures and record-low Arctic sea ice, supporting expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years.
Carbon Brief projects 2026 as second-warmest year globally with 19% chance to surpass 2024
2 surges to 55%15%
Carbon Brief's analysis projected 2026 as the second-warmest year globally with a 19% chance of surpassing 2024, based on early 2026 temperature data and ENSO forecasts. This forecast influenced market confidence, favoring the 2nd hottest year outcome while acknowledging some chance for 1st.
NOAA reports March 2026 as second warmest March on record
NOAA reported that March 2026 tied with 2024 as the second warmest March since 1850, with record-high temperatures in many regions, reinforcing expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years and boosting the market price for second place.
March 2026 posts largest temperature departure in 132 years in US
2 jumps to 42%6%
March 2026 recorded the largest temperature departure of any month in 132 years in the US, with 25 statewide monthly records falling between January and June. This extreme heat contributed to market expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years globally.
NOAA confirms 2026 among top five warmest years with El Niño influence
2 jumps to 62%7%
NOAA's June 2026 global temperature update confirmed 2026 as the second warmest June on record and virtually certain to rank within the top five warmest years overall, supported by the ongoing El Niño, solidifying market confidence in high rankings for 2026.
Hottest winter temperature ever recorded in the US at Falcon Dam, Texas
2 jumps to 39%12%
A record-breaking winter temperature of 106°F was recorded in South Texas, highlighting the extreme warmth in early 2026 and reinforcing expectations for a very hot year overall.
WMO reports fading La Niña, rising chance of El Niño by mid-2026
2 rises to 39%3%
The World Meteorological Organization reported that weak La Niña conditions were fading and that there was an increasing probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026. This shift is known to increase global temperatures, boosting market expectations for 2026's high temperature ranking.
NOAA reports February 2026 as fifth warmest February on record
1 drops to 14%10%
NOAA's report of February 2026 being the fifth warmest February reinforced the ongoing trend of elevated global temperatures, supporting market expectations of a hot year ahead.
January 2026 ranks as fifth warmest January on record
1 plunges to 11%22%
NOAA data showed January 2026 as the fifth warmest January globally, reinforcing the trend of persistent above-average temperatures and supporting market confidence in a hot 2026.
February 2026 ranks as fifth warmest February on record
2 rises to 42%3%
NOAA and Copernicus reported February 2026 as the fifth warmest February globally, with ocean temperatures near record highs, reinforcing expectations of a very warm year and supporting market confidence in top rankings.
NOAA reports January 2026 as fifth-warmest January on record
2 drops to 31%8%
NOAA's data showed January 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest January in their 177-year record, reinforcing the trend of elevated global temperatures early in the year and supporting market confidence in a hot 2026.
Met Office and climate experts project 2026 temperature ranking
2 surges to 53%17%
The Met Office, NASA's Dr. Gavin Schmidt, Berkeley Earth, and Carbon Brief published projections indicating 2026 would likely be between the second and fourth warmest years on record, which increased market confidence in the second place outcome.
Market opens amid strong consensus that 2026 will have record-hot months
The market opened with high volume and strong expectations that at least one month in 2026 would be the hottest on record, supported by ongoing global warming trends and early 2026 temperature data showing anomalies close to prior records. This set a bullish tone for 2026's overall ranking in temperature records.
Market opens on strong expectations for 2026 hottest month records
The market opened with high volume and strong expectations that at least one month in 2026 would be the hottest on record, reflecting ongoing global warming trends and early 2026 temperature data.
Market opens on expectations of 2026 hottest month record
The opening of a market on whether any month of 2026 would be the hottest on record reflected growing confidence in record-breaking monthly temperatures, driven by ongoing warming trends and early 2026 data.
Emergence of El Niño conditions forecasted to intensify in 2026
2 rises to 41%2%
NOAA and WMO forecasted a strong El Niño event developing during May to July 2026, expected to persist into early 2027, which would elevate global temperatures and increase the likelihood of 2026 being among the hottest years on record. This forecast drove market optimism for a high ranking of 2026's temperature.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, setting baseline for 2026 expectations
2 rises to 40%4%
NASA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would continue the trend of high global temperatures and supporting market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
NASA confirms 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years on record
1 drops to 25%8%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released data confirming that 2025 was the second warmest year, following 2024 as the warmest, setting the context for 2026's temperature expectations. This reinforced market views on 2026's potential ranking relative to recent years.
NASA confirms 2025 as second hottest year, 2026 unlikely to surpass
NASA's mid-year update reaffirmed 2025 as the hottest year on record and indicated that while 2026 temperatures were high, they were not expected to exceed 2025 levels, solidifying market consensus on 2026 ranking second hottest.
NASA highlights 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 45%5%
NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio released a graphic emphasizing that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank near the top and boosting market confidence in the second hottest outcome.
NASA publishes updated global temperature analysis highlighting 2023-2025 as hottest years
2 rises to 42%3%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 was updated, showing 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years on record, influencing market expectations that 2026 might not surpass these years, thus affecting the ranking probabilities.
NASA Confirms 2023-2025 as Warmest Years on Record
2 rises to 38%2%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published data confirming that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures. This context influenced market perceptions about 2026's potential ranking.
NASA highlights 2025 as third warmest year, with 2024 still hottest on record
2 rises to 43%2%
NASA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, with 2024 remaining the hottest. This reinforced the trend of recent record-breaking temperatures and set the stage for expectations about 2026's ranking.
NASA updates show 2025 as third warmest year, 2026 forecast uncertain
1 drops to 21%12%
NASA and other agencies confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record, with 2026's ranking uncertain but expected to be high. This tempered expectations for 2026 being the hottest, causing some market price volatility and a dip in the '1' outcome.
NASA visualizes 2025‑2023 as three hottest years in its 146‑year record
2 surges to 65%26%
NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio released a graphic showing 2025, 2024 and 2023 as the three hottest years on record. The visual reminder of recent record‑breaking years pushed traders toward the belief that 2026 would rank near the top, driving the price of outcome 2 upward.
NASA confirms 2024, 2025, and 2023 as top three hottest years on record
2 rises to 39%3%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis update highlighted 2024, 2025, and 2023 as the three warmest years in their 146-year record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
Met Office forecasts 2026 to be among four warmest years on record
2 jumps to 46%6%
The UK Met Office forecasted that 2026 would likely be the fourth consecutive year exceeding 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, placing it among the four warmest years on record. This forecast, highlighting the rapid approach to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target, influenced market sentiment toward 2026 ranking near the top but not necessarily the hottest year.
NASA confirms 2025 as one of the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis highlighted 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in their 146-year record, reinforcing the trend of rising global temperatures and supporting market expectations for 2026 to rank highly among hottest years.
NASA updates global temperature record confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released updated GISTEMP v4 data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, influencing market expectations about 2026's relative ranking and increasing confidence in 2026 being among the top hottest years.
NASA confirms 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years on record
2 rises to 42%3%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 update confirmed that 2025, 2024, and 2023 were the three warmest years in the 146-year record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
NASA highlights 2023-2025 as the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 45%5%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published an update emphasizing that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could also rank very high. This bolstered market confidence in 2026 ranking 2nd hottest, raising its price from 40% to 45%.
NASA Releases Updated GISTEMP v4 Global Temperature Visualization
NASA published an updated visualization of GISTEMP v4, confirming 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in its 146-year record, providing authoritative climate data that influenced market expectations.
NASA highlights 2025, 2024, and 2023 as warmest years in 146-year record
2 jumps to 53%11%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released data emphasizing that 2025, 2024, and 2023 were the three warmest years on record, reinforcing the trend of rising temperatures and supporting market expectations for 2026's high ranking.
NASA confirms 2024 as hottest year on record, 2025 second hottest
6 or lower plunges to 2%41%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released data confirming 2024 as the hottest year and 2025 as the second hottest in the 146-year record, setting a benchmark for 2026's ranking. This reinforced market views that 2026 would need exceptional warming to surpass these years.
NASA Releases Global Temperature Data for 2025
NASA released updated GISTEMP v4 data showing 2025 was the third warmest year on record, which helped contextualize the 2026 temperature ranking.
NASA Scientific Visualization Studio highlights 2023, 2024, and 2025 as warmest years on record
2 jumps to 45%6%
NASA's visualization emphasized that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could also rank very high among the hottest years.
NASA confirms 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published an update confirming that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years but likely not surpass these. This bolstered market confidence in 2026 ranking second hottest, reflected in rising prices for outcome '2'.
NASA GISTEMP v4 Global Temperature Analysis Released
NASA released its latest Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index analysis showing 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in its 146-year record, setting the baseline for 2026 temperature expectations.
NASA Releases GISTEMP v4 Global Temperature Analysis
NASA updated its Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index with version 4, confirming 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in its 146-year record, setting the baseline for 2026 comparisons.
NASA updates global temperature data confirming recent record warmth
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's February 2026 update of the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis reinforced the trend of record warmth in recent years, supporting market confidence that 2026 could be among the hottest years, especially given ongoing warming trends.
NASA highlights 2025, 2024, and 2023 as warmest years on record
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released data showing 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in their 146-year record, setting the context for expectations about 2026's ranking.
NOAA releases January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis with AI-enhanced dataset
2 jumps to 46%10%
NOAA transitioned to version 6.1.0 of the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset, incorporating artificial intelligence methods to improve the accuracy of global temperature data, which increased market confidence in the reliability of temperature measurements for 2026.
January 2026 Global Temperature Update Shows Continued Warming Trend
1 drops to 25%8%
The UAH v6.1 global temperature update for January 2026 confirmed ongoing warming with a linear temperature trend of +0.16°C per decade, reinforcing expectations of elevated temperatures for the year. This update supported market confidence in a high ranking for 2026's temperature.
UAH reports January 2026 global temperature anomaly at +0.35°C
The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) released its global temperature update for January 2026, showing a moderate warming anomaly of +0.35°C. This data indicated ongoing warming trends but was not yet at record levels, influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
NOAA Releases January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis
NOAA transitioned to version 6.1.0 of the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset, which uses an artificial neural network for land surface temperature analysis, enhancing the accuracy of global temperature data.
Canada forecasts 2026 among hottest years on record
2 surges to 65%26%
Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasted 2026 to be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024, reinforcing expectations of sustained high global temperatures.
Canadian scientists project 2026 among top three hottest years globally
Environment and Climate Change Canada scientists forecast 2026 to be among the top three hottest years on record, with a 12% chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, influencing market expectations for a high ranking.
Environment Canada forecasts 2026 among four hottest years on record
2 jumps to 47%14%
Environment and Climate Change Canada released a forecast indicating 2026 will likely be among the four hottest years on record, with global average temperatures expected between 1.35°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. This forecast supported market expectations for a high ranking for 2026.
Canadian scientists forecast 2026 among top three hottest years on record
2 drops to 29%10%
Environment and Climate Change Canada scientists projected 2026 to be among the hottest years, close to 2023 and 2025, trailing only 2024, reinforcing market optimism for a high ranking of 2026.
Canada forecasts 2026 among hottest years ever, nearing 2024 record
1 surges to 70%51%
Environment and Climate Change Canada released forecasts indicating 2026 would be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching the 2024 record. The forecast predicted global mean temperatures 1.35–1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, with the 2026-2030 period likely the hottest five-year span.
Canadian scientists warn 2026 may be hottest year, raising extreme weather risks
2 surges to 62%21%
Canadian federal scientists highlighted the likelihood of 2026 being the hottest year on record, emphasizing the increased risk of extreme weather events, which supported market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Canadian scientists forecast 2026 among hottest years ever recorded
1 surges to 67%34%
Environment and Climate Change Canada projected 2026 to be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024's record warmth, reinforcing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Canadian scientists project 2026 among top three hottest years on record
1 surges to 55%22%
Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasted 2026 to be among the top three hottest years, trailing only 2024 and 2025, citing rising global temperatures and potential El Niño development. This report increased market confidence in 2026 ranking very high in heat records.
NASA releases updated global temperature data confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 jumps to 46%10%
NASA's GISS published updated global surface temperature data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024. This data set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking and reinforced market confidence in 2026 being among the top warmest years.
UK Met Office forecasts 2026 among four warmest years on record
4 plunges to 0%21%
The UK Met Office forecasted 2026 to be likely the fourth warmest year on record, with global average temperatures around 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, influencing market expectations.
NASA releases global temperature data confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 rises to 40%4%
NASA published its global surface temperature dataset showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, confirming the ongoing warming trend and setting a baseline for 2026 expectations. This data influenced market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but not necessarily the hottest year.
NASA analysis shows 2025 slightly warmer than 2023, 2024 hottest on record
2 rises to 46%3%
NASA scientists released data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, the hottest year on record. This data reinforced the ongoing warming trend and influenced market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NASA releases global temperature data confirming 2025 as third warmest year
NASA published its annual global temperature data showing 2025 as the third warmest year on record, reinforcing the ongoing warming trend and setting the stage for expectations about 2026's temperature ranking.
NOAA reports July 2025 as warmest month on record for average low temperatures in US
1 drops to 11%8%
NOAA's report of record warm overnight minimum temperatures in July 2025 highlighted the ongoing warming trend and reinforced market confidence in 2026's potential to rank as the hottest year.
NOAA releases January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis
2 rises to 38%2%
NOAA released its January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis, transitioning to version 6.1.0 with AI-based reconstruction methods, improving accuracy of global temperature data and influencing market confidence in 2026's ranking.
Canada forecasts 2026 among hottest years on record
1 dips to 22%2%
Environment and Climate Change Canada released forecasts predicting 2026 would be among the hottest years, comparable to 2023 and 2025, reinforcing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
2025 confirmed as one of the warmest years on record
2 rises to 38%2%
Scientists announced that 2025 was either the second or third hottest year on record, continuing the trend of rising global temperatures and supporting market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years.
Emerging El Niño conditions forecast to intensify through 2026
1 rises to 14%3%
Climate models and NOAA forecasts indicated a strong El Niño developing, expected to peak in late 2026, which would likely raise global temperatures and increase the chance of 2026 being one of the hottest years.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 rises to 42%3%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting a high baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking among the hottest years. This confirmation supported market confidence in 2026's potential to rank highly.
WMO and Copernicus confirm 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 jumps to 46%6%
The World Meteorological Organization and Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year globally, slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024. This confirmation reinforced the trend of rising global temperatures and supported forecasts that 2026 would remain among the hottest years, influencing market expectations toward a high ranking for 2026.
WMO confirms 2025 among three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 43%7%
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed 2025 as one of the three warmest years on record, reinforcing the trend of extraordinary global temperatures and supporting forecasts that 2026 would continue this pattern of high temperatures.
NASA releases 2025 global temperature data confirming 2024 as hottest year on record
NASA published its annual global temperature data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, which remains the hottest year on record. This release set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking and confirmed ongoing warming trends.
US and EU climate experts report 2025 as third hottest year, no relief expected in 2026
2 jumps to 44%11%
US and EU climate scientists confirmed 2025 as the third hottest year and warned that 2026 would continue the trend, likely ranking fourth hottest, reinforcing market expectations for a high ranking but not necessarily the hottest year.
2025 confirmed as third hottest year on record, no relief expected in 2026
2 drops to 31%8%
US and EU climate scientists reported that 2025 was the third hottest year on record, extending a streak of unprecedented heat, and warned that 2026 would continue this trend, likely ranking as the fourth warmest year. This set early market expectations for 2026's high ranking.
NASA releases data showing 2025 as third warmest year, with 2026 forecasted among top warmest
2 rises to 40%2%
NASA's release of global temperature data confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record and highlighted projections that 2026 would be among the four warmest years, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NASA releases data confirming 2025 as third hottest year on record
1 drops to 24%9%
NASA's analysis showed that 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 and ranked as the third hottest year, setting the context for continued warming into 2026. This data reinforced expectations that 2026 would remain among the hottest years.
NASA releases 2025 global temperature data confirming 2024 as hottest year on record
2 surges to 40%16%
NASA published data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, confirming 2024 as the hottest year on record. This set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking and reinforced ongoing warming trends.
NASA confirms 2025 among three hottest years on record, warming trend continues
2 rises to 40%1%
NASA's analysis confirmed that 2025 was one of the three warmest years recorded, continuing a trend of rising global temperatures. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would also be very warm, influencing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA Releases January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis
2 jumps to 64%10%
NOAA released its January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis, transitioning the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset to version 6.1.0 with AI-based reconstruction methods, which improved the accuracy of global temperature data.
NOAA reports 2025 as Earth's 3rd-warmest year, forecasts 2026 likely top five warmest
1 drops to 28%5%
NOAA's January 2026 report confirmed 2025 as the third-warmest year on record and forecasted a less than 1% chance that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, but a 75% chance of being in the top five. This tempered expectations and influenced market prices, reducing confidence in 2026 being the hottest year.
NASA releases 2025 global temperature data confirming third hottest year on record
1 drops to 24%9%
NASA's release of 2025 temperature data confirmed it as the third hottest year, setting the stage for expectations that 2026 would continue the trend of extreme heat, influencing market optimism for 2026 ranking highly.
US and EU climate scientists report 2025 as third hottest year, no relief expected in 2026
4 plunges to 0%21%
On January 14, 2026, US and EU climate scientists confirmed that 2025 was the third hottest year on record and warned that 2026 would continue the warming trend, likely ranking as the fourth warmest year. This report set early expectations for 2026's high temperature ranking, influencing market perceptions.
James Hansen reiterates 2026 will eclipse 2024 temperature record
2 jumps to 70%8%
James Hansen published an updated analysis reaffirming that 2026 should exceed the 2024 temperature record by a significant margin, citing ocean temperature anomalies and energy imbalance. This reinforced market confidence in the '2' outcome as the most likely rank for 2026.
NASA releases updated global temperature data confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 dips to 36%3%
NASA published its GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4) data, confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting the context for 2026 temperature expectations. This data release influenced market perceptions about 2026's potential ranking.
NASA confirms 2024 as hottest year on record, 2025 slightly warmer than 2023
NASA's analysis confirmed 2024 as the hottest year on record and 2025 as slightly warmer than 2023, setting the context for expectations that 2026 would compete closely with recent record highs, influencing market confidence in the '2' outcome.
US and EU climate scientists report 2025 as third hottest year, no relief expected in 2026
2 drops to 32%7%
US and EU researchers confirmed 2025 as the third hottest year and warned that 2026 would continue the trend, likely ranking as the fourth warmest year, reinforcing market expectations for a high ranking of 2026.
2025 was third hottest year on record, no relief expected in 2026
2 rises to 40%1%
US and EU climate scientists reported 2025 as the third hottest year on record and warned that 2026 would continue the warming trend, with a strong El Niño potentially making 2026 another record-breaking year. This set the baseline for market expectations early in 2026.
Multiple agencies confirm 2025 as third warmest year, setting stage for 2026
2 surges to 62%23%
Independent analyses by NOAA, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus, and others confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year, reinforcing the trend and expectations for 2026 to be among the hottest years.
NASA releases data confirming 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 rises to 40%4%
NASA scientists published global temperature data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would continue the trend of high global temperatures and influencing market confidence toward 2026 ranking near the top.
Berkeley Earth reports 2025 global mean temperature at 1.44°C above preindustrial levels
2 rises to 44%4%
Berkeley Earth's analysis confirmed 2025 as one of the warmest years on record with a global mean temperature of 1.44°C above preindustrial levels, and projected 2026 to be similar or slightly cooler, influencing market views on 2026's ranking relative to recent years.
NASA confirms 2025 tied with 2023 as third warmest year, 2024 remains hottest
NASA scientists announced that 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but within margin of error, confirming 2024 as the hottest year on record, influencing market expectations for 2026.
NASA releases January 2026 global temperature data showing cooler start than 2024
2 drops to 27%6%
NASA's January 2026 data showed a cooler start compared to 2024, tempering expectations for 2026 to be the hottest year and causing some market price fluctuations.
NASA releases data confirming 2025 as third hottest year on record
6 or lower plunges to 4%39%
NASA published its global temperature data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, confirming 2025 as the third hottest year on record. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would continue the warming trend but not necessarily surpass 2024 immediately.
NASA publishes updated GISTEMP v4 global temperature analysis through 2025
2 jumps to 44%5%
NASA released the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4) data including 2025 temperatures, confirming recent years as the hottest on record and setting context for 2026 expectations. This bolstered market confidence in 2026 ranking near the top but not necessarily the hottest year.
NASA releases global temperature data showing 2025 as third warmest year
1 drops to 24%9%
NASA's January 2026 release confirmed 2025 as slightly cooler than 2024 but still among the warmest years on record, setting a baseline for market expectations about 2026's temperature ranking.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, 2024 remains hottest
2 jumps to 46%6%
NASA released global temperature data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, which remains the hottest year. This set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking, supporting market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but not necessarily the hottest year.
NASA releases global temperature data showing 2025 as third warmest year
NASA scientists released data indicating that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, setting a recent baseline for global temperatures and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
2025 confirmed as third hottest year on record, no relief expected in 2026
6 or lower plunges to 2%41%
Reports from US and EU climate scientists confirmed 2025 as the third hottest year, extending a warming streak with no relief expected in 2026, setting the stage for market expectations of continued extreme heat.
NOAA reports 2025 global surface temperature slightly warmer than 2023
2 rises to 41%2%
NOAA's report confirmed 2025's high temperature ranking, reinforcing expectations for 2026 to be among the warmest years, supporting market confidence in top rankings.
NASA releases global temperature data confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 jumps to 46%6%
NASA scientists published data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, confirming ongoing warming trends and setting a baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking. This reinforced market confidence that 2026 would rank highly among the hottest years.
US and EU scientists report 2025 as third hottest year, no relief expected in 2026
2 drops to 32%7%
US and EU climate scientists confirmed 2025 as the third hottest year on record and forecasted no relief in 2026, projecting it likely to be the fourth warmest year, which supported market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 rises to 41%2%
NASA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year, slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would continue the trend of high global temperatures and influencing market confidence toward outcome '2'.
Scientists report 2025 ocean heat content hits record high
2 rises to 41%2%
New research in early January 2026 found that ocean heat content reached record levels in 2025, raising the planet's baseline temperature and increasing the likelihood that 2026 would be among the hottest years, supporting market expectations for a high ranking.
Scientists report 2025 ocean heat content hits record high
2 rises to 41%2%
New research in early January 2026 found that ocean heat content reached record levels in 2025, raising the planet's baseline temperature and increasing the likelihood that 2026 would be among the hottest years. This scientific finding supported market expectations for a high ranking of 2026's temperature.
NASA reports ocean heat content reaches new record in 2025
2 rises to 41%2%
NASA's report on January 9, 2026, highlighted that ocean heat content reached a new record for the ninth consecutive year in 2025, indicating sustained warming that supports expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years. This reinforced market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
UK Met Office confirms 2025 as UK's hottest and sunniest year on record
2 rises to 41%2%
The UK Met Office announced that 2025 was the hottest and sunniest year on record for the UK, highlighting the ongoing trend of rising temperatures due to climate change. This early 2026 confirmation likely influenced market perceptions about continuing warming trends into 2026.
NOAA reports 2026 likely among top five warmest years on record
2 drops to 25%14%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, based on temperature data showing multiple continents experiencing top 10 warmest starts to the year. This official assessment increased market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA reports 2026 among top five warmest years likely due to El Niño
1 drops to 24%9%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by strong El Niño conditions and warm starts across multiple continents. This boosted market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA reports 2026 first half among warmest on record globally
1 surges to 61%28%
NOAA announced that the January–June 2026 global surface temperature departure was the third-highest in the 177-year record, surpassed only by 2024 and 2025, with multiple continents recording top 10 warmest starts. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would rank among the top five warmest years, boosting market confidence in higher ranking outcomes.
NOAA forecasts 2026 among top five warmest years due to strong El Niño
2 rises to 42%3%
NOAA stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, driven by a strong El Niño and warm starts across multiple continents. This announcement increased market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Early 2026 global temperatures average 1.20°C above baseline amid emerging El Niño
1 drops to 25%8%
Through the first four months of 2026, global temperatures averaged approximately 1.20°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, with forecasts indicating a strong El Niño developing, raising expectations for a potentially record-breaking year.
2025 confirmed as third hottest year on record, no relief expected in 2026
2 drops to 25%14%
Climate experts reported that 2025 was the third hottest year on record, extending a streak of unprecedented global heat, and warned that 2026 would likely continue this trend, possibly ranking as the fourth warmest year. This set the stage for market expectations of a very hot 2026.
NASA confirms 2025 as third hottest year on record
NASA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year, slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would continue the warming trend but not necessarily surpass 2024 immediately. This data influenced market confidence in 2026's high ranking but not the top spot.
NASA and NOAA confirm 2025 as third warmest year globally
NASA and NOAA, along with other independent analyses, confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting a benchmark for 2026 and supporting market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but not necessarily as the hottest year.
Record-breaking warm Christmas temperatures across the US
2 dips to 36%3%
Unprecedented warmth was recorded across many US states on Christmas Day 2025, with multiple locations setting new high temperature records, signaling an ongoing trend of extreme heat that contributed to market expectations for a hot 2026.
NASA releases 2025 global temperature data confirming 2024 as hottest year on record
2 dips to 36%3%
NASA published its annual global temperature data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, which remains the hottest year on record. This set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking and confirmed ongoing warming trends.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 surges to 42%24%
NASA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year, setting a benchmark for assessing 2026's temperature ranking and boosting confidence in 2026 ranking near the top.
UK Met Office warns 2026 likely fourth year above 1.4°C warming
1 rises to 40%4%
The Met Office released a detailed outlook predicting 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year with global temperatures exceeding 1.4°C above preindustrial levels, highlighting the rapid approach to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target and the risk of surpassing it again in 2026. This reinforced market expectations for a top ranking of 2026.
James Hansen and colleagues project 2026 could be warmest year on record
On December 18, 2025, James Hansen and colleagues published a projection indicating that despite a cooler start to 2026 compared to 2024, the development of a strong El Niño could make 2026 the warmest year on record. This forecast raised market expectations for the '1' outcome (hottest year).
Met Office forecasts 2026 temperatures more than 1.4°C above preindustrial levels
1 jumps to 36%12%
The UK Met Office forecasted that 2026 would be among the four hottest years since 1850, with temperatures expected to exceed 1.4°C above preindustrial levels, reinforcing the trend of recent years and suggesting 2026 could be the fourth consecutive year above this threshold. This forecast supported market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Scientists report 2025 as third hottest year, warn warming trend to continue in 2026
2 jumps to 44%5%
US and EU climate agencies reported 2025 as the third hottest year on record, extending a streak of extreme global heat, and warned that 2026 is unlikely to reverse this trend, setting the stage for high expectations for 2026's temperature ranking.
NOAA confirms November 2025 as third-warmest November on record
2 jumps to 46%7%
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information reported November 2025 as the third-warmest November in their 176-year record, reinforcing the ongoing global warming trend and supporting expectations that 2025 would rank among the top three warmest years. This bolstered market confidence in 2026 being a very warm year, influencing prices toward higher rankings.
Copernicus Climate Service confirms 2025 as third hottest year on record
2 rises to 41%2%
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that 2025 was the third hottest year globally, following 2024 and 2023, reinforcing the ongoing warming trend and setting the stage for expectations about 2026's temperature ranking.
NASA confirms 2025 among warmest years, 2024 remains hottest on record
2 rises to 40%1%
NASA's release of global temperature data confirmed that 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but still behind 2024, the hottest year on record. This set the baseline for market expectations that 2026 would compete closely with recent record highs.
NOAA and NASA confirm 2025 as third warmest year on record
NASA and NOAA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting the context for expectations about 2026's temperature ranking and influencing early market positions.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year on record, 2024 remains hottest
NASA released global temperature data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year, slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, which remains the hottest year. This set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking, supporting market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but not necessarily the hottest year.
NOAA reports continued global warming with 2025 among warmest years
1 drops to 27%6%
NOAA's data confirmed that recent years, including 2025, were among the warmest on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would also be very warm. This supported early market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
Emerging El Niño conditions raise prospects for record 2026 temperatures
1 drops to 25%8%
Early signals of a developing El Niño event in late 2025 increased market expectations that 2026 could become the hottest year on record, driving initial price movements favoring the top rank outcome.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 rises to 37%4%
Climate scientist James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing warming trends. This authoritative statement likely boosted market prices for the top ranking outcome.
2025 confirmed as third hottest year on record, setting stage for 2026
1 surges to 61%28%
Reports from US and EU climate scientists confirmed 2025 as the third hottest year, extending a streak of unprecedented global heat and setting expectations for continued warmth in 2026. This baseline influenced early market optimism for 2026 ranking highly among hottest years.
NASA confirms 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years on record
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 update confirmed that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in the 146-year record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 likely second-hottest year amid El Niño prospects
2 jumps to 46%7%
Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance of 2026 being the warmest year and a 62% chance of it being the second warmest, based on El Niño projections and global temperature models. This forecast increased market confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome, reflected in rising prices.
NASA confirms 2025 among top three warmest years on record
NASA released data showing 2025 as the third warmest year, setting a high baseline for 2026 and influencing market expectations that 2026 would be similarly warm or hotter.
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