Trader consensus places 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting rapid El Niño development across the equatorial Pacific that is adding significant warmth atop long-term greenhouse gas forcing. Early 2026 global surface temperatures have tracked as the fourth-warmest start on record in multiple datasets, consistent with neutral-to-warming ENSO conditions expected to strengthen through summer and fall. This positions the year below 2024’s record but ahead of 2025’s third-place finish in most analyses, with a 35.5% chance of overtaking 2024 if the El Niño reaches strong or super levels. Historical analogs and current model runs indicate limited upside beyond fourth place, explaining the low probabilities assigned to lower rankings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6 या उससे कम 2.3%
$2,821,277 वॉल्यूम
$2,821,277 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 या उससे कम
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6 या उससे कम 2.3%
$2,821,277 वॉल्यूम
$2,821,277 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
$453,741 वॉल्यूम
36%
2
$325,824 वॉल्यूम
57%
3
$428,143 वॉल्यूम
2%
4
$416,574 वॉल्यूम
3%
5
$732,047 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 या उससे कम
$464,948 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus places 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting rapid El Niño development across the equatorial Pacific that is adding significant warmth atop long-term greenhouse gas forcing. Early 2026 global surface temperatures have tracked as the fourth-warmest start on record in multiple datasets, consistent with neutral-to-warming ENSO conditions expected to strengthen through summer and fall. This positions the year below 2024’s record but ahead of 2025’s third-place finish in most analyses, with a 35.5% chance of overtaking 2024 if the El Niño reaches strong or super levels. Historical analogs and current model runs indicate limited upside beyond fourth place, explaining the low probabilities assigned to lower rankings.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,821,277समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus places 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting rapid El Niño development across the equatorial Pacific that is adding significant warmth atop long-term greenhouse gas forcing. Early 2026 global surface temperatures have tracked as the fourth-warmest start on record in multiple datasets, consistent with neutral-to-warming ENSO conditions expected to strengthen through summer and fall. This positions the year below 2024’s record but ahead of 2025’s third-place finish in most analyses, with a 35.5% chance of overtaking 2024 if the El Niño reaches strong or super levels. Historical analogs and current model runs indicate limited upside beyond fourth place, explaining the low probabilities assigned to lower rankings.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,821,277समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus places 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting rapid El Niño development across the equatorial Pacific that is adding significant warmth atop long-term greenhouse gas forcing. Early 2026 global surface temperatures have tracked as the fourth-warmest start on record in multiple datasets, consistent with neutral-to-warming ENSO conditions expected to strengthen through summer and fall. This positions the year below 2024’s record but ahead of 2025’s third-place finish in most analyses, with a 35.5% chance of overtaking 2024 if the El Niño reaches strong or super levels. Historical analogs and current model runs indicate limited upside beyond fourth place, explaining the low probabilities assigned to lower rankings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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