Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of such events—several per century globally, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursory indicators like prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable systems. As of mid-May 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, while USGS Volcano Alert Levels top out at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive activity at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin, with no explosive escalation. Recent highlights include a brief 10-km ash plume at Dukono, Indonesia, on May 8, but far below VEI6 thresholds. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at Yellowstone Caldera or Toba, though current geodetic and seismic data remain stable; monitor GVP weekly reports and USGS updates through year-end for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्रमुख ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥6)?
2026 में प्रमुख ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥6)?
$80,347 वॉल्यूम
$80,347 वॉल्यूम
31 मार्च, 2027
$80,347 वॉल्यूम
$80,347 वॉल्यूम
31 मार्च, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of such events—several per century globally, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursory indicators like prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable systems. As of mid-May 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, while USGS Volcano Alert Levels top out at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive activity at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin, with no explosive escalation. Recent highlights include a brief 10-km ash plume at Dukono, Indonesia, on May 8, but far below VEI6 thresholds. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at Yellowstone Caldera or Toba, though current geodetic and seismic data remain stable; monitor GVP weekly reports and USGS updates through year-end for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$80,347समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of such events—several per century globally, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursory indicators like prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable systems. As of mid-May 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, while USGS Volcano Alert Levels top out at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive activity at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin, with no explosive escalation. Recent highlights include a brief 10-km ash plume at Dukono, Indonesia, on May 8, but far below VEI6 thresholds. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at Yellowstone Caldera or Toba, though current geodetic and seismic data remain stable; monitor GVP weekly reports and USGS updates through year-end for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$80,347समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of such events—several per century globally, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursory indicators like prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions at capable systems. As of mid-May 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, while USGS Volcano Alert Levels top out at WATCH/ORANGE for effusive activity at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin, with no explosive escalation. Recent highlights include a brief 10-km ash plume at Dukono, Indonesia, on May 8, but far below VEI6 thresholds. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid pressurization at Yellowstone Caldera or Toba, though current geodetic and seismic data remain stable; monitor GVP weekly reports and USGS updates through year-end for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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