NASA’s Artemis program, the leading contender for a crewed lunar return, has faced repeated technical setbacks with the Starship human landing system and related hardware, prompting NASA to confirm in February 2026 that Artemis III will no longer target a surface landing. The mission is now slated for a late-2027 test flight focused on low-Earth orbit and docking validation, pushing any crewed touchdown to 2028 at the earliest. China’s manned lunar plans remain anchored to a 2030 goal, with only robotic missions such as Chang’e 7 scheduled for late 2026. No other government or commercial program possesses the demonstrated heavy-lift, life-support, or landing technologies required to meet a 2026 deadline. While unforeseen breakthroughs or accelerated testing could theoretically compress timelines, the absence of credible near-term hardware milestones and the extended certification processes for human-rated systems sustain trader consensus that a landing this year is effectively precluded.