Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero impact risks among dozens of tracked close approaches this year. Enhanced planetary defense technologies, including advanced telescopes and radar like those spotting newly discovered Apollo-class asteroid 2026 JH2 for its safe May 18 flyby at 90,000 km, have cataloged record fireballs—such as the 7-ton Ohio airburst in March yielding under 1 kt—but none near the Chelyabinsk-scale threshold. Despite warnings of undetected city-killers smaller than 140 meters, historical rarity and comprehensive monitoring sustain strong No positioning, with odds firm barring unforeseen small-object intercepts through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?
2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?
हाँ
$153,412 वॉल्यूम
$153,412 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$153,412 वॉल्यूम
$153,412 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero impact risks among dozens of tracked close approaches this year. Enhanced planetary defense technologies, including advanced telescopes and radar like those spotting newly discovered Apollo-class asteroid 2026 JH2 for its safe May 18 flyby at 90,000 km, have cataloged record fireballs—such as the 7-ton Ohio airburst in March yielding under 1 kt—but none near the Chelyabinsk-scale threshold. Despite warnings of undetected city-killers smaller than 140 meters, historical rarity and comprehensive monitoring sustain strong No positioning, with odds firm barring unforeseen small-object intercepts through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$153,412समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero impact risks among dozens of tracked close approaches this year. Enhanced planetary defense technologies, including advanced telescopes and radar like those spotting newly discovered Apollo-class asteroid 2026 JH2 for its safe May 18 flyby at 90,000 km, have cataloged record fireballs—such as the 7-ton Ohio airburst in March yielding under 1 kt—but none near the Chelyabinsk-scale threshold. Despite warnings of undetected city-killers smaller than 140 meters, historical rarity and comprehensive monitoring sustain strong No positioning, with odds firm barring unforeseen small-object intercepts through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$153,412समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero impact risks among dozens of tracked close approaches this year. Enhanced planetary defense technologies, including advanced telescopes and radar like those spotting newly discovered Apollo-class asteroid 2026 JH2 for its safe May 18 flyby at 90,000 km, have cataloged record fireballs—such as the 7-ton Ohio airburst in March yielding under 1 kt—but none near the Chelyabinsk-scale threshold. Despite warnings of undetected city-killers smaller than 140 meters, historical rarity and comprehensive monitoring sustain strong No positioning, with odds firm barring unforeseen small-object intercepts through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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