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icon for 2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?

2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?

icon for 2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?

2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?

दिस 31

दिस 31

हाँ

12% संभावना
Polymarket

$178,784 वॉल्यूम

हाँ

12% संभावना
Polymarket

$178,784 वॉल्यूम

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of a 10-kiloton-or-greater airburst or impact through the end of 2026. Multiple documented close approaches this year, including 2026 JH2 in May and larger objects in June, all passed safely at distances well beyond any risk threshold. Ongoing sky surveys continue to shrink the pool of undetected objects large enough to produce such energy release, while historical records show events at this scale occur only once every few decades on average. With roughly four months remaining, trader consensus heavily favors “No” because any qualifying strike would require an undetected object to evade current detection networks entirely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$178,784
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of a 10-kiloton-or-greater airburst or impact through the end of 2026. Multiple documented close approaches this year, including 2026 JH2 in May and larger objects in June, all passed safely at distances well beyond any risk threshold. Ongoing sky surveys continue to shrink the pool of undetected objects large enough to produce such energy release, while historical records show events at this scale occur only once every few decades on average. With roughly four months remaining, trader consensus heavily favors “No” because any qualifying strike would require an undetected object to evade current detection networks entirely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$178,784
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

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अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?" Polymarket पर 2 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, 2026 में प्रमुख उल्कापिंड प्रहार (10 किलोटन+) होने की संभावना है? 12% (12¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है।

आज तक, "2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?" ने कुल $178.8K ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Dec 31, 2025 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।

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