NOAA’s updated August outlook for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and a forecast range of zero to two major hurricanes, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 or stronger storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The season has produced just three named tropical storms through mid-August and zero hurricanes, consistent with El Niño-related wind shear and drier air suppressing intensification. Historical analogs and model consensus show reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy, lowering landfall odds for major hurricanes along the Gulf and East coasts below long-term averages. Forecasters note that peak-season conditions through November remain the primary variable, with any late intensification or steering changes able to alter outcomes, though current data favor limited major-hurricane development overall.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
16% संभावना
$340,578 वॉल्यूम
$340,578 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
हाँ
16% संभावना
$340,578 वॉल्यूम
$340,578 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August outlook for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and a forecast range of zero to two major hurricanes, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 or stronger storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The season has produced just three named tropical storms through mid-August and zero hurricanes, consistent with El Niño-related wind shear and drier air suppressing intensification. Historical analogs and model consensus show reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy, lowering landfall odds for major hurricanes along the Gulf and East coasts below long-term averages. Forecasters note that peak-season conditions through November remain the primary variable, with any late intensification or steering changes able to alter outcomes, though current data favor limited major-hurricane development overall.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$340,578समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August outlook for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and a forecast range of zero to two major hurricanes, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 or stronger storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The season has produced just three named tropical storms through mid-August and zero hurricanes, consistent with El Niño-related wind shear and drier air suppressing intensification. Historical analogs and model consensus show reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy, lowering landfall odds for major hurricanes along the Gulf and East coasts below long-term averages. Forecasters note that peak-season conditions through November remain the primary variable, with any late intensification or steering changes able to alter outcomes, though current data favor limited major-hurricane development overall.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$340,578समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August outlook for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and a forecast range of zero to two major hurricanes, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 or stronger storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The season has produced just three named tropical storms through mid-August and zero hurricanes, consistent with El Niño-related wind shear and drier air suppressing intensification. Historical analogs and model consensus show reduced Accumulated Cyclone Energy, lowering landfall odds for major hurricanes along the Gulf and East coasts below long-term averages. Forecasters note that peak-season conditions through November remain the primary variable, with any late intensification or steering changes able to alter outcomes, though current data favor limited major-hurricane development overall.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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