**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, as reflected in the 88% trader consensus on “No.”** The two oldest justices, Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76), have been the primary focus of retirement speculation, yet sources close to both and Alito’s own August 2026 statements confirm plans to serve at least through the 2026–2027 term ending in June or July 2027. No other justices have signaled departure, and no health or personal developments have emerged to alter that outlook. With the remaining months of 2026 offering limited window for an unanticipated vacancy and Senate confirmation dynamics unchanged, traders view an opening as unlikely absent sudden events.