Recent Supreme Court acceptance of Apple's petition, limited to the narrow legal question of whether civil contempt requires an explicit injunction violation rather than its "spirit," has driven trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability of siding with Apple. The company argues its 27% commission on external payment links complied with the letter of the 2021 order while complying with anti-steering rules, a position supported by the DOJ's September amicus brief and filings from tech industry groups emphasizing circuit splits on contempt standards. With Apple's merits brief filed in September and Epic's response due in November, the case centers on precise injunctive language in the App Store antitrust dispute, where historical precedent on unambiguous orders strengthens Apple's positioning ahead of potential 2027 arguments.