Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$4,522समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$4,522समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न