Elevated jet fuel prices stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment on airline bankruptcy timelines through year-end, with low-cost carriers most exposed due to thin margins and heavy debt loads. Spirit Airlines, already in its second Chapter 11 filing since 2024, ceased operations in early May after creditors withdrew support for a planned summer restructuring amid a $4 billion industry-wide fuel cost surge. Analysts now flag JetBlue with greater than 75 percent default risk by 2027 and Frontier at 45–50 percent, citing years of unprofitability, aircraft lease obligations, and absent premium revenue streams. In contrast, legacy carriers such as American maintain manageable probabilities despite $36.5 billion in total debt, supported by international diversification and recent free-cash-flow guidance. Key near-term catalysts include June earnings releases, FOMC signals on inflation, and any further escalation in Middle East energy markets that could widen spreads between carrier balance sheets.