The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 outlook places a marginal severe risk and 2% tornado probability across the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama, driven by a nearly stationary surface front, precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches, and the potential for a weak offshore low to modestly boost low-level shear and storm-relative helicity near the coast. Weak instability and poor lapse rates are expected to limit organized supercells, favoring only brief, transient circulations or waterspouts rather than significant tornadoes. No other regions carry notable tornado probabilities today. Traders should watch the 0100Z and subsequent SPC updates for any changes in low development or shear forecasts, as resolution hinges on whether confirmed tornadoes occur within the outlined counties before the period ends.