Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by year-end, reflecting that frontier systems from leading labs remain clustered below 1510 as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning at 11% market-implied odds due to its repeated leadership with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants topping recent snapshots near 1506, outpacing incremental gains from OpenAI's GPT-5.x series and Google's Gemini 3.x releases. The compressed timeline favors the "none" outcome, as model iterations have delivered only modest Elo lifts amid tight competition and no demonstrated capability jumps sufficient to close the gap before December 31.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कोई नहीं 82%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 11%
OpenAI 4.6%
अलीबाबा 1.2%
$125,835 वॉल्यूम
$125,835 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
82%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
11%
OpenAI
5%
अलीबाबा
1%
xAI
1%
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
2026 में कोई नहीं 82%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 11%
OpenAI 4.6%
अलीबाबा 1.2%
$125,835 वॉल्यूम
$125,835 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
$26,221 वॉल्यूम
82%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
$18,684 वॉल्यूम
11%
OpenAI
$15,237 वॉल्यूम
5%
अलीबाबा
$11,378 वॉल्यूम
1%
xAI
$9,570 वॉल्यूम
1%
$12,041 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$13,474 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$9,758 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्त्राल
$9,474 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by year-end, reflecting that frontier systems from leading labs remain clustered below 1510 as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning at 11% market-implied odds due to its repeated leadership with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants topping recent snapshots near 1506, outpacing incremental gains from OpenAI's GPT-5.x series and Google's Gemini 3.x releases. The compressed timeline favors the "none" outcome, as model iterations have delivered only modest Elo lifts amid tight competition and no demonstrated capability jumps sufficient to close the gap before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$125,835समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by year-end, reflecting that frontier systems from leading labs remain clustered below 1510 as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning at 11% market-implied odds due to its repeated leadership with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants topping recent snapshots near 1506, outpacing incremental gains from OpenAI's GPT-5.x series and Google's Gemini 3.x releases. The compressed timeline favors the "none" outcome, as model iterations have delivered only modest Elo lifts amid tight competition and no demonstrated capability jumps sufficient to close the gap before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$125,835समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by year-end, reflecting that frontier systems from leading labs remain clustered below 1510 as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning at 11% market-implied odds due to its repeated leadership with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants topping recent snapshots near 1506, outpacing incremental gains from OpenAI's GPT-5.x series and Google's Gemini 3.x releases. The compressed timeline favors the "none" outcome, as model iterations have delivered only modest Elo lifts amid tight competition and no demonstrated capability jumps sufficient to close the gap before December 31.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न