Strong trader consensus around an 80% implied probability for "None in 2026" reflects frontier large language models (LLMs) remaining clustered in the 1500-1511 Elo range on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through mid-August. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants lead with demonstrated gains in reasoning and multi-step tasks, yet progress has slowed to incremental updates without the rapid capability jumps seen in prior years. Close competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and xAI's Grok-4.6 has narrowed gaps but not produced breakthroughs toward 1550, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek trail further behind. Market-implied odds price in realistic barriers such as scaling limits and evaluation volatility for the remainder of the year.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कोई नहीं 80%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 वॉल्यूम
$114,223 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
80%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
14%
6%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
अलीबाबा
1%
DeepSeek
1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
2026 में कोई नहीं 80%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 वॉल्यूम
$114,223 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
$25,038 वॉल्यूम
80%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
$13,940 वॉल्यूम
14%
$10,858 वॉल्यूम
6%
OpenAI
$13,071 वॉल्यूम
2%
xAI
$8,897 वॉल्यूम
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$10,681 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$12,731 वॉल्यूम
1%
मिस्त्राल
$9,474 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Strong trader consensus around an 80% implied probability for "None in 2026" reflects frontier large language models (LLMs) remaining clustered in the 1500-1511 Elo range on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through mid-August. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants lead with demonstrated gains in reasoning and multi-step tasks, yet progress has slowed to incremental updates without the rapid capability jumps seen in prior years. Close competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and xAI's Grok-4.6 has narrowed gaps but not produced breakthroughs toward 1550, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek trail further behind. Market-implied odds price in realistic barriers such as scaling limits and evaluation volatility for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$114,223समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Strong trader consensus around an 80% implied probability for "None in 2026" reflects frontier large language models (LLMs) remaining clustered in the 1500-1511 Elo range on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through mid-August. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants lead with demonstrated gains in reasoning and multi-step tasks, yet progress has slowed to incremental updates without the rapid capability jumps seen in prior years. Close competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and xAI's Grok-4.6 has narrowed gaps but not produced breakthroughs toward 1550, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek trail further behind. Market-implied odds price in realistic barriers such as scaling limits and evaluation volatility for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$114,223समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong trader consensus around an 80% implied probability for "None in 2026" reflects frontier large language models (LLMs) remaining clustered in the 1500-1511 Elo range on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard through mid-August. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants lead with demonstrated gains in reasoning and multi-step tasks, yet progress has slowed to incremental updates without the rapid capability jumps seen in prior years. Close competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and xAI's Grok-4.6 has narrowed gaps but not produced breakthroughs toward 1550, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek trail further behind. Market-implied odds price in realistic barriers such as scaling limits and evaluation volatility for the remainder of the year.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न