Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कोई नहीं 57%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
62%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
34%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
अलीबाबा
1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026 में कोई नहीं 57%
एन्थ्रॉपिक 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
$54,452 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
2026 में कोई नहीं
$10,084 वॉल्यूम
62%
एन्थ्रॉपिक
$6,982 वॉल्यूम
34%
$7,388 वॉल्यूम
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 वॉल्यूम
3%
xAI
$5,414 वॉल्यूम
2%
अलीबाबा
$4,750 वॉल्यूम
1%
मिस्त्राल
$3,688 वॉल्यूम
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$54,452समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$54,452समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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