**The 95% implied probability on "No" for permanent daylight saving time in 2026 reflects the bill's stalled progress in the Senate despite House passage.** The Sunshine Protection Act (H.R. 139) cleared the House on a bipartisan 308-117 vote in July 2026, advancing a measure to repeal the temporary DST period under the Uniform Time Act and make year-round daylight saving time the national standard, with opt-out provisions for certain states. It was then referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, where it has remained without a floor vote or committee action. Senate leaders, including Majority Leader John Thune, have signaled insufficient support to reach the 60 votes typically needed for cloture, with lawmakers noting divisions on the issue. The legislative window is narrow: Congress faces only about nine working days before a recess beginning October 5, after which members will not return until after the scheduled November 1 clock change back to standard time. No Senate vote has been scheduled, and analysts view passage before the end of 2026 as unlikely given the calendar and procedural requirements. Nineteen states have conditional laws supporting permanent DST contingent on federal action, but these remain dormant without congressional approval. President Trump has publicly backed ending the biannual changes, yet this has not overcome Senate hurdles. Traders' consensus aligns with the absence of imminent legislative momentum capable of enacting the change for 2026.