Democratic control of both chambers after the 2026 midterms gives the House a simple majority to advance articles of impeachment against President Trump, consistent with prior efforts that reached the floor under Democratic leadership. However, Senate conviction and removal requires a two-thirds supermajority that current seat counts make unattainable even with bipartisan support. Historical precedent shows two prior House impeachments of Trump resulting in Senate acquittals, and recent Democratic statements emphasize oversight and investigations over guaranteed removal. Traders price this Senate threshold as the dominant constraint through 2028, producing the 82.6% implied probability on the “No” outcome.