Drake’s surprise simultaneous release of Iceman alongside Habibti and Maid of Honour on May 15 has triggered explosive streaming surges across Spotify and Apple Music, with first-week projections exceeding 500,000 equivalent units and positioning the project for a dominant Billboard 200 debut. Traders assign a 96% implied probability to a No. 1 finish because Drake’s catalog dominance, 13 prior chart-toppers, and minimal competing releases this week create overwhelming momentum, while the triple-drop strategy could even sweep the top three spots. The only realistic upset scenarios remain intra-catalog cannibalization if streams split too evenly among the three albums or an unforeseen late surge from another project before the May 23 chart lock.