Ongoing US sanctions enforcement and the naval blockade of Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced oil export revenues, the primary driver of rial depreciation against the USD. With exports down over 80 percent in recent weeks amid storage constraints and restricted tanker movements, Iran's economy faces intensified inflation and currency pressure, pushing open-market rates above 1.8 million rials per dollar. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran on nuclear issues and a potential ceasefire extension continue without a finalized agreement, leaving room for further escalation or de-escalation. Any breakthrough easing sanctions or restoring export flows before month-end could stabilize the rial, while sustained pressure on energy sales would reinforce depreciation.