The near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect USGS analysis that no known fault is long enough—roughly one-third of Earth's circumference would be required—to release the necessary energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with all subsequent great earthquakes, including the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka and 2026 events reaching M7.7–7.8, falling well below that threshold. Plate tectonics and crustal rock strength impose firm physical limits, and ongoing global monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation capable of producing such an event in the remaining months of 2026. While measurement revisions or an undetected megathrust rupture could theoretically alter outcomes, these scenarios lack supporting observational data from authoritative seismic networks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui10,0 atau di atas gempa bumi sebelum 2027?
10,0 atau di atas gempa bumi sebelum 2027?
Ya
1% peluang
$807,553 Vol.
$807,553 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Ya
1% peluang
$807,553 Vol.
$807,553 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect USGS analysis that no known fault is long enough—roughly one-third of Earth's circumference would be required—to release the necessary energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with all subsequent great earthquakes, including the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka and 2026 events reaching M7.7–7.8, falling well below that threshold. Plate tectonics and crustal rock strength impose firm physical limits, and ongoing global monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation capable of producing such an event in the remaining months of 2026. While measurement revisions or an undetected megathrust rupture could theoretically alter outcomes, these scenarios lack supporting observational data from authoritative seismic networks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$807,553Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect USGS analysis that no known fault is long enough—roughly one-third of Earth's circumference would be required—to release the necessary energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with all subsequent great earthquakes, including the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka and 2026 events reaching M7.7–7.8, falling well below that threshold. Plate tectonics and crustal rock strength impose firm physical limits, and ongoing global monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation capable of producing such an event in the remaining months of 2026. While measurement revisions or an undetected megathrust rupture could theoretically alter outcomes, these scenarios lack supporting observational data from authoritative seismic networks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$807,553Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 98.9% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect USGS analysis that no known fault is long enough—roughly one-third of Earth's circumference would be required—to release the necessary energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with all subsequent great earthquakes, including the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka and 2026 events reaching M7.7–7.8, falling well below that threshold. Plate tectonics and crustal rock strength impose firm physical limits, and ongoing global monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation capable of producing such an event in the remaining months of 2026. While measurement revisions or an undetected megathrust rupture could theoretically alter outcomes, these scenarios lack supporting observational data from authoritative seismic networks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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