Rodri's commanding market position for fourth place stems from his standout World Cup 2026 campaign, where he captained Spain to the title and earned the Golden Ball as the tournament's best player despite limited club minutes from prior injuries. Traders view this international dominance as a decisive factor in Ballon d'Or voting patterns, which have historically rewarded major tournament success over domestic output, especially for a 2024 winner with elite midfield control. While his Barcelona move added late momentum, the consensus reflects strong guild-like jury alignment around his narrative. An upset would require voters to heavily prioritize club metrics from Kane, Mbappé, or Yamal instead, a shift rarely seen in recent cycles.