**Chapecoense sits at the foot of the 2026 Série A table on just 14 points from 23 matches with a -22 goal difference, giving it a near-certain path to Série B according to statistical models.** Mirassol, Remo, and Vasco da Gama occupy the other relegation spots with 22–24 points, while Internacional (25 points) and Grêmio remain in striking distance. Vasco’s heavy recent defeat to Palmeiras has pushed its modeled relegation risk above 65 percent, and Remo continues to drop points in direct confrontations. With 14 matchweeks remaining, the bottom sides face a demanding run of fixtures against mid-table and top-half opponents, amplifying the importance of every result in the final stretch. Traditional clubs like Vasco and Grêmio retain some historical resilience, but sustained poor form and defensive vulnerabilities have kept them pinned near the drop zone.