**The 90% cap on wagering loss deductions under IRC §165(d) took effect for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, via Section 70114 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a 2025 reconciliation measure that also made permanent the TCJA-era expansion of losses to include business expenses.** This created “phantom income” taxation for break-even gamblers who itemize, prompting immediate bipartisan repeal pushes including the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), FULL HOUSE Act, and WAGER Act. Multiple amendment attempts in January–February 2026 were blocked in the House Rules Committee, a companion Senate bill advanced no further, and an IRS hearing in July 2026 yielded no legislative change. As of mid-August 2026, none of the repeal measures has advanced to enactment despite industry and stakeholder support, leaving the cap in place with only months remaining before 2027. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the end of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui18% peluang
$71,078 Vol.
$71,078 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
18% peluang
$71,078 Vol.
$71,078 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **The 90% cap on wagering loss deductions under IRC §165(d) took effect for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, via Section 70114 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a 2025 reconciliation measure that also made permanent the TCJA-era expansion of losses to include business expenses.** This created “phantom income” taxation for break-even gamblers who itemize, prompting immediate bipartisan repeal pushes including the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), FULL HOUSE Act, and WAGER Act. Multiple amendment attempts in January–February 2026 were blocked in the House Rules Committee, a companion Senate bill advanced no further, and an IRS hearing in July 2026 yielded no legislative change. As of mid-August 2026, none of the repeal measures has advanced to enactment despite industry and stakeholder support, leaving the cap in place with only months remaining before 2027. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$71,078Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **The 90% cap on wagering loss deductions under IRC §165(d) took effect for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, via Section 70114 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a 2025 reconciliation measure that also made permanent the TCJA-era expansion of losses to include business expenses.** This created “phantom income” taxation for break-even gamblers who itemize, prompting immediate bipartisan repeal pushes including the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), FULL HOUSE Act, and WAGER Act. Multiple amendment attempts in January–February 2026 were blocked in the House Rules Committee, a companion Senate bill advanced no further, and an IRS hearing in July 2026 yielded no legislative change. As of mid-August 2026, none of the repeal measures has advanced to enactment despite industry and stakeholder support, leaving the cap in place with only months remaining before 2027. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,078Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 90% cap on wagering loss deductions under IRC §165(d) took effect for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, via Section 70114 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a 2025 reconciliation measure that also made permanent the TCJA-era expansion of losses to include business expenses.** This created “phantom income” taxation for break-even gamblers who itemize, prompting immediate bipartisan repeal pushes including the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), FULL HOUSE Act, and WAGER Act. Multiple amendment attempts in January–February 2026 were blocked in the House Rules Committee, a companion Senate bill advanced no further, and an IRS hearing in July 2026 yielded no legislative change. As of mid-August 2026, none of the repeal measures has advanced to enactment despite industry and stakeholder support, leaving the cap in place with only months remaining before 2027. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the end of 2026.
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