Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak's regional confinement to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 8,600 confirmed cases and roughly 4,150 deaths as of early October but no sustained community transmission beyond limited imports in Uganda and Kenya. Historical exportation data since 1976 show low global spread risk—approximately 0.17 cases outside Africa per 1,000 reported in Africa—bolstered by contact tracing, isolation protocols, and the virus's moderate reproductive number near 2.5. Official surveillance from WHO and Africa CDC indicates declining transmission in key zones despite persistent challenges like community deaths. A realistic shift could occur only with unexpected mutation enhancing airborne spread or major lapses in border controls before year-end.