Trader consensus strongly favors no Ebola pandemic in 2026, with a 97.5% market-implied probability, because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid early growth to over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths by mid-September. Official CDC and WHO data show limited exportations to Uganda and single imported cases in France and Germany, with no evidence of sustained community transmission beyond DRC borders. Insecurity and population movement have complicated response, yet transmission rates are declining in the Ituri epicenter while rising in North Kivu, and the virus has not demonstrated the airborne or high-efficiency human-to-human spread needed for pandemic scale. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated cross-border seeding into dense urban centers, emergence of more transmissible variants, or prolonged delays in vaccine trials and contact tracing that allow wider African or intercontinental chains.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% peluang
$764,347 Vol.
$764,347 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
$764,347 Vol.
$764,347 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus strongly favors no Ebola pandemic in 2026, with a 97.5% market-implied probability, because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid early growth to over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths by mid-September. Official CDC and WHO data show limited exportations to Uganda and single imported cases in France and Germany, with no evidence of sustained community transmission beyond DRC borders. Insecurity and population movement have complicated response, yet transmission rates are declining in the Ituri epicenter while rising in North Kivu, and the virus has not demonstrated the airborne or high-efficiency human-to-human spread needed for pandemic scale. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated cross-border seeding into dense urban centers, emergence of more transmissible variants, or prolonged delays in vaccine trials and contact tracing that allow wider African or intercontinental chains.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$764,347Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus strongly favors no Ebola pandemic in 2026, with a 97.5% market-implied probability, because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid early growth to over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths by mid-September. Official CDC and WHO data show limited exportations to Uganda and single imported cases in France and Germany, with no evidence of sustained community transmission beyond DRC borders. Insecurity and population movement have complicated response, yet transmission rates are declining in the Ituri epicenter while rising in North Kivu, and the virus has not demonstrated the airborne or high-efficiency human-to-human spread needed for pandemic scale. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated cross-border seeding into dense urban centers, emergence of more transmissible variants, or prolonged delays in vaccine trials and contact tracing that allow wider African or intercontinental chains.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$764,347Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no Ebola pandemic in 2026, with a 97.5% market-implied probability, because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo despite rapid early growth to over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths by mid-September. Official CDC and WHO data show limited exportations to Uganda and single imported cases in France and Germany, with no evidence of sustained community transmission beyond DRC borders. Insecurity and population movement have complicated response, yet transmission rates are declining in the Ituri epicenter while rising in North Kivu, and the virus has not demonstrated the airborne or high-efficiency human-to-human spread needed for pandemic scale. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated cross-border seeding into dense urban centers, emergence of more transmissible variants, or prolonged delays in vaccine trials and contact tracing that allow wider African or intercontinental chains.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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