Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged money laundering, corruption, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with documents unsealed in mid-September. No formal charges or arrest have followed despite the probe's public confirmation. As a sitting senator and presidential candidate ahead of the October election, procedural protections, Senate privileges, and the compressed nine-day window to September 30 limit the likelihood of rapid escalation by federal police or the STF. Trader consensus at 95.8% for no charges or arrest by the deadline reflects these institutional and timeline barriers. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution, though such steps are uncommon in this timeframe.