Recent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0 – 50k 43%
100k – 150k 43%
50k – 100k 41%
200k+ 39%
BARU
BARU
Jul 3, 2026
<0
11%
0 – 50k
43%
50k – 100k
41%
100k – 150k
43%
150k – 200k
38%
200k+
39%
0 – 50k 43%
100k – 150k 43%
50k – 100k 41%
200k+ 39%
BARU
BARU
Jul 3, 2026
<0
$51 Vol.
11%
0 – 50k
$41 Vol.
43%
50k – 100k
$0 Vol.
41%
100k – 150k
$40 Vol.
43%
150k – 200k
$0 Vol.
38%
200k+
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$132Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$132Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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