**Recent activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, which produced ash plumes reaching 15 km, stands as the clearest candidate for a VEI ≥4 event this year and has narrowed trader focus between zero and one such eruption.** Official VEI assignments rely on ejecta volume and plume height thresholds (≥0.1 km³ and >10 km for VEI 4), with confirmation often delayed. An earlier May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge in Papua New Guinea also generated a substantial plume and pumice rafts, potentially qualifying at the lower VEI 4 range. Indonesia’s position on the Ring of Fire continues to drive clustered unrest, though most ongoing activity at volcanoes such as Semeru, Sangay, and Sakurajima remains below the VEI 4 threshold. With roughly three months left in 2026 and typical global rates of one to two large eruptions annually, the closely matched 47 % and 38.5 % odds for one or zero events reflect both the limited confirmed data so far and the inherent variability in explosive volcanism.