Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data shows over 530 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026, surpassing historical year-to-date averages by 10-20% after an exceptionally active January-April featuring major outbreaks like the April 17-18 event and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. This front-loaded pace, driven by persistent unstable atmospheric conditions in the Plains and Midwest amid neutral ENSO patterns, positions trader consensus at 66% implied probability for 1250+ total tornadoes, with final counts typically revised downward 10-20% from preliminary reports. Peak activity windows remain in late May through June, when model forecasts indicate continued supercell potential; upcoming SPC weekly outlooks and surveys will refine seasonal trajectory amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 63%
1000–1049 17.1%
1150–1199 16.9%
950–999 4.6%
$71,930 Vol.
$71,930 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
5%
1000–1049
17%
1050–1099
16%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
22%
1200–1249
30%
1250+
72%
1250+ 63%
1000–1049 17.1%
1150–1199 16.9%
950–999 4.6%
$71,930 Vol.
$71,930 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,411 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$2,966 Vol.
5%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
17%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
16%
1100–1149
$2,041 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,452 Vol.
22%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
30%
1250+
$16,622 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data shows over 530 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026, surpassing historical year-to-date averages by 10-20% after an exceptionally active January-April featuring major outbreaks like the April 17-18 event and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. This front-loaded pace, driven by persistent unstable atmospheric conditions in the Plains and Midwest amid neutral ENSO patterns, positions trader consensus at 66% implied probability for 1250+ total tornadoes, with final counts typically revised downward 10-20% from preliminary reports. Peak activity windows remain in late May through June, when model forecasts indicate continued supercell potential; upcoming SPC weekly outlooks and surveys will refine seasonal trajectory amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$71,930Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data shows over 530 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026, surpassing historical year-to-date averages by 10-20% after an exceptionally active January-April featuring major outbreaks like the April 17-18 event and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. This front-loaded pace, driven by persistent unstable atmospheric conditions in the Plains and Midwest amid neutral ENSO patterns, positions trader consensus at 66% implied probability for 1250+ total tornadoes, with final counts typically revised downward 10-20% from preliminary reports. Peak activity windows remain in late May through June, when model forecasts indicate continued supercell potential; upcoming SPC weekly outlooks and surveys will refine seasonal trajectory amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,930Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data shows over 530 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026, surpassing historical year-to-date averages by 10-20% after an exceptionally active January-April featuring major outbreaks like the April 17-18 event and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. This front-loaded pace, driven by persistent unstable atmospheric conditions in the Plains and Midwest amid neutral ENSO patterns, positions trader consensus at 66% implied probability for 1250+ total tornadoes, with final counts typically revised downward 10-20% from preliminary reports. Peak activity windows remain in late May through June, when model forecasts indicate continued supercell potential; upcoming SPC weekly outlooks and surveys will refine seasonal trajectory amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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