Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 50-60 billion dollar IPO raise for SpaceX at 38% implied probability, leading over 70-80 billion (23%) and 80-90 billion (19%), amid the company's April 2026 confidential S-1 filing targeting a June Nasdaq listing at $1.75-2 trillion valuation. This positioning reflects Starlink's explosive revenue trajectory—nearing $16 billion in 2025—funding aggressive $20 billion-plus annual capex for Starship scaling and space-based AI data centers, yet tempered by execution risks in unproven multi-planetary tech and recent secondary share trades at ~$640 apiece implying $1.3-1.5 trillion private market cap. A dual-class structure granting Elon Musk 10x voting power, per filing details, curbs shareholder rights and caps float sizing to 3-4% of market cap for liquidity without dilution pressure. Public S-1 release, expected imminently by mid-May, looms as the key catalyst ahead of roadshows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$138,939 Vol.
$138,939 Vol.
<40B
12%
40-50B
8%
50-60B
37%
60-70B
10%
70-80B
23%
80-90B
19%
90-100B
6%
100-110B
3%
110-120B
4%
120B+
4%
$138,939 Vol.
$138,939 Vol.
<40B
12%
40-50B
8%
50-60B
37%
60-70B
10%
70-80B
23%
80-90B
19%
90-100B
6%
100-110B
3%
110-120B
4%
120B+
4%
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 50-60 billion dollar IPO raise for SpaceX at 38% implied probability, leading over 70-80 billion (23%) and 80-90 billion (19%), amid the company's April 2026 confidential S-1 filing targeting a June Nasdaq listing at $1.75-2 trillion valuation. This positioning reflects Starlink's explosive revenue trajectory—nearing $16 billion in 2025—funding aggressive $20 billion-plus annual capex for Starship scaling and space-based AI data centers, yet tempered by execution risks in unproven multi-planetary tech and recent secondary share trades at ~$640 apiece implying $1.3-1.5 trillion private market cap. A dual-class structure granting Elon Musk 10x voting power, per filing details, curbs shareholder rights and caps float sizing to 3-4% of market cap for liquidity without dilution pressure. Public S-1 release, expected imminently by mid-May, looms as the key catalyst ahead of roadshows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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