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Ekonomi·Bisnis

Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?

icon for Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?
Ekonomi·Bisnis

Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?

0 (0 bps) 67.0%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 bps) 6%

4 (100 bps) 1.8%

Polymarket

$26,634,439 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 67.0%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 bps) 6%

4 (100 bps) 1.8%

Polymarket

$26,634,439 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$4,156,762 Vol.

67%

1 (25 bps)

$1,242,610 Vol.

16%

2 (50 bps)

$1,189,168 Vol.

6%

3 (75 bps)

$1,092,717 Vol.

2%

4 (100 bps)

$1,189,814 Vol.

2%

5 (125 bps)

$1,401,419 Vol.

1%

6 (150 bps)

$2,452,302 Vol.

1%

7 (175 bps)

$1,315,142 Vol.

1%

8 (200 bps)

$1,705,808 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$2,431,207 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$3,078,969 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$3,241,210 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$2,137,775 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—equating to no basis point reductions—reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation pressures that have eroded easing expectations. The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest print since May 2023 and driven by energy cost spikes from the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Federal Open Market Committee's April 28-29 meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-4 dissent split, signaling a higher-for-longer policy stance. CME FedWatch concurs with roughly 71% odds of steady rates through year-end, though the June FOMC and May CPI release could prompt shifts if inflation moderates.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,634,439
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—equating to no basis point reductions—reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation pressures that have eroded easing expectations. The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest print since May 2023 and driven by energy cost spikes from the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Federal Open Market Committee's April 28-29 meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-4 dissent split, signaling a higher-for-longer policy stance. CME FedWatch concurs with roughly 71% odds of steady rates through year-end, though the June FOMC and May CPI release could prompt shifts if inflation moderates.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,634,439
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 13 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "0 (0 bps)" di 67%, diikuti oleh "1 (25 bps)" di 16%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 67¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 67% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" telah menghasilkan $26.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 29, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?," jelajahi 13 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" adalah "0 (0 bps)" di 67%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 67% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1 (25 bps)" di 16%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.